kswiston

BH6 made over $650M. Why wouldn't people call it a success?

Probably higher than that, even if Deadline isn't lowballing. Thor 2 made around $39M more after its third weekend $14.2M. Deadline's $15M would put Doctor Strange at $179M after this weekend. Following Thor 2's drops for the rest of its run is $220M.

Oh, I agree, but I can see how Sony would push Angry Birds over Billy Lynn. That said, I am not entirely convinced that even Finding Dory is a nomination lock. With Zootopia a lock for the ballot, and presumably Moana as well, voters may choose to forgo a third Disney film and spread the love to some of the lower budget stuff. Japanese films not made by Studio Ghibli typically get passed over, but Your Name might have made enough buzz with its (eventual) $200M+ Japanese run to get some recognition stateside.

Angry Birds doesn't have a realistic shot, but the best animated feature ghetto is easier to get a mixed reviews nomination in than the Best Picture Category. No point in wasting money on Billy Lynn.

They will drop the price of non-tentpole film tickets by 50 cents and raise the tentpole ticket price by $2

I said it about 20 pages back, but Skyfall is the only live action big opener (>$50M) in November to manage >3x OW multiplier in the past 10 years. Why are people expecting that out of a Potterverse film? Even 2.7x seems to me to be on the optimistic side (since the smaller start this weekend will give exhibitors less of a reason to keep in running as the holiday films open), but at least that gives the film a path to $200M off of a $75M start.

Not that I expect an Amazing hold from Strange. Last weekend was likely inflated by $3-4M due to the holiday. That was always going to knock a few percentage points off this weekend's hold. I also think that Fantastic Beasts has a pretty solid demographic overlap with Doctor Strange. However, down 65% isn't much better than Amazing Spider-man fared against TDKR. Fantastic Beasts isn't TDKR. I wouldn't be surprised to see the weekend estimate bounce back $17.5-18.5M range. Not a very exciting result after last weekend's sub-50 tumble, but not the end of the world with Thanksgiving next weekend.

Knowing Deadline, they are looking at the Fri-Fri drops for Strange/Trolls and extrapolating to the entire weekend, forgetting that last Friday was a holiday. No stated Friday estimate = useless weekend estimate

At least with DCEU threads we get a 9 figure opening.

What do you define as enormous internationally? $500M? $600M?

I don't see anything wrong with predicting well over or under on a film's opening. Even professional analysts with access to tracking metrics are often way off. The issue as always is the "$90M+ is locked" posts that scoff at lower predictions (including all of the tracking this film has ever had).

The (first) Hobbit did over 80% of RotK's worldwide take and about 80% of RotK domestically. At best, this is Potter's Puss in Boots.

Even if it has OK legs, I am seeing some DOM totals as high as $225M despite the fact that Skyfall is the only live action November film in the past decade to debut over $50M and still break the 3x OW multiplier barrier.

Depending on what we are counting, maybe the Great Gatsby.

Why are you guys expecting a Potterverse film to have better than average blockbuster legs?

He's probably trying to account for the HP die hards. Deathly Hallows 1's midnights counted for 19% of the weekend gross. if Beasts followed that path it would stall at $45M. $60M would be in between HP frontloadedness and regular frontloadedness.

So much for the crazy $110M+ predictions some were posting this week. Studio tracking will be in the right ballpark assuming the film isnt quite as frontloaded as mainline HP.

For some reason, I thought your post was part of the more recent posts in this thread. I must have clicked on the wrong page. I wouldn't have replied if I knew you made that statement in March. Sorry.

Given how Hollywood films have been performing in China in the past year or so, I think it's worth hedging your bets. Look at predictions vs reality for Mission Impossible 5, Kung Fu Panda, Star Trek Beyond, etc. EDIT: Also, The Hobbit 3 would have been under $110M with the current Yuan-to-USD exchange.

That math was wrong anyhow, even with the old Friday, the bump would have been 77%. So about ￥100M to go before Strange passes BvS?

Doctor Strange's second weekend won't end up too far under Suicide Squad's second weekend. I don't see why $250M is out of grasp if Fantastic Beasts doesn't completely kill its third weekend. $225M is looking pretty good in any case.

A drop in the 55% range (around $38M) would be a pretty solid start for Strange. Taking out the Thursday previews that would be around -50% for Fri-Sun. Trolls is indeed holding well, but it's going to be hit hard by Moana in two weeks. If it passes $150M, I don't think it will be by all that much.

Strange was at $35-36M before on Deadline, so the update to $36-40M must mean Friday is trending up from that early $12.5M.

I agree. A typical second weekend superhero drop would actually be closer to $35M, so $40M next weekend would be good.

Universal's $6.89B has no chance of standing at this point. Disney is at just shy of $6.07B based on the report from Wednesday, and Doc Strange's gross since then. Strange will easily do another $300M (without Japan). Moana and the first 14 days of Rogue One aren't going to fail to hit $530M or less combined by Dec 31st. My guess is that somewhere over $7.5B is more likely for Disney this year.