kswiston

I'm new to the derby. Are the scores just tentative at the moment until we get actual Sat/Sun numbers? I messed up La La Land, which might keep me out of the top 10. For some reason, I thought the expansion was Friday... Being off with your predictions is fine. We all make our educated guesses. Being off on your predictions due to faulty underlying info is annoying.

Your Saturday is way too high, especially if Friday sticks to $13M. An excellent drop would be mid-30s, but I'd guess that 40%+ is more likely. With Friday coming in lower than what you pegged, Saturday would have to drop 23% to hit $10M. Your Sunday is also in turn way too high. Family/children's films don't get the same huge bump that other films do on X-Mas (in previous years, family films increased around 50%). On the other hand, your Monday might be ballpark right, since it was originally way too low based on your Sunday. Family films do get a huge Monday bump when kids are no longer opening presents/spending time with grandma.

With a $13M Friday, how are you getting $75M for the 6-day? Based on family films from 2011 and 2005, I think low 30s for the 3-day weekend and high 40s for the 4-day weekend are more likely. That would give you $70M at best with Wed/Thurs.

I wouldn't put it past Deadline to have forgotten that X-Mas Eve means that Saturday will be cratered. $22M Friday on a normal weekend for a non-opener would probably mean $80M. Ultron's second Friday was $21.2M.

Deathly hallows was close, so sure. I doubt it for twilight.

Manchester is going to ride out the awards nominations. It's a frontrunner in several categories. Unless Amazon has plans to pull it from theatres in the near future, it could continue playing fairly well until late February. I think La La Land is heading for $100M+ pretty easily.

Doctor Strange managed to avoid completely collapsing with the release of Rogue One. Now that we are entering the holidays, I think that $235M domestic is locked. Thor The Dark World made another $6.5M after a much smaller seventh Friday. That leaves $8M or less for Japan in order for Strange to top Man of Steel.

Just like Deadline uses! Honestly, Disney is lowballing, because why wouldn't they? If Sat/Sun is softer than expected, they can just say it was within their expectations. If it is within or above actual expectations, bonus! $143M is basically a Twilight weekend.

Regarding east coast weather, it's supposed to be warming up all day today, so that might not be as big a deal come the evening shows. It's currently 32 in NYC, and is supposed to go up into the 40s overnight (with tomorrow approaching 60). Freezing rain is this morning. The rest of the weekend will be regular rain.

I don't know the particulars of Baumer's club. The Force Awakens did 4.6x its true Fri-Sun total, plus the $57M from Thursday previews. (EDIT: 880M/191M + 57M) If the goal is beating Finding Dory, Rogue One will need to make ~$486.5M domestic, or $457.5M outside of the Thursday previews. For convenience sake, let's say Rogue One ends up with a true Fri-Sun of $125M ($154M with previews). Beating Dory will require a 3.66x true Fri-Sun multiplier outside of Friday previews. Tons of room to be more frontloaded than TFA, and still come out on top.

Unless this is unusually frontloaded.

Are we going to get an article in a month or so about The Great Wall being fudged? If not, that's a pretty good start. Maybe not enough to justify the budget given that it looks DOA outside of China and markets with similar tastes, but we'll see.

Seems like common sense. Since 2000, Eragon had the biggest opening weekend share (31.0%) of any wide release on the third weekend of December. Eragon legs on a $155M opening is $500M domestic.

I'm hoping for at least $158,411,484 TDK has been in the top 10 openings long enough

Seems pretty low. A 10% jump today and a 26% drop on Sunday gives you: Fri: 71.1M Sat: 46.3M Sun: 34.3M Total: 151.6M I think today's bump over Friday proper will be somewhere between 15-20%.

Sunday is also a school night for more kids than TFA's first Sunday was.

Google works fine if you are interested in specific films, but it is a bit of a pain if you want a list of top preview/midnight figures.

So $10-15M more domestic (depending on how well Strange weathers Rogue One next weekend). Maybe $2M from OS holdovers, and then whatever Japan manages. $660M on the low end. $675M will require a pretty good (for an MCU film) run in Japan and continued good legs domestically

Holds were strong enough during the weekdays that a domestic weekend gross of $4M+ could happen. The openers are looking to do maybe $20M combined and the drop in theatre count was low. I'm pretty sure overseas can manage $1M.

Also, 50k isn't going to do much with 900k to go to $90M. Earlier this year with Spectre was funny though. The theatre count kept going down while the weekend grosses kept going up. Sony expected us to believe that it had a higher PTA in week 20 than it did in week 3.

About 30% of this past week was China, and China's going to wrap up fast now. That will hurt next week's drop. Anything over Suicide Squad WW is pretty great though.

Domestic likely has $15-20M depending on how hard Rogue One hits (The Dark World made another $12.5M after this point on a $4.8M domestic weekend). How much more for the overseas territories still in release? $10M? Add $7-12M for Japan to that, assuming no real breakout. $675M could still happen, but it will be close. I think at least $665M is fairly safe, even if legs are not all that great from this point forward.

Against odds, it also looks like Fantastic Beasts will become just the second live action November film in 10 years to manage a 3x multiplier after a $50M opening (Skyfall was the other). I really didn't think that would happen, but if it can at least match Deathly Hallows Pt 1's remaining run $72.3M after that second Tuesday, it will be at $230M. The only hiccup could be Rogue One, but Deathly Hallows didn't have particularly amazing drops in its 3rd-4th weekends, so Fantastic Beasts may be able to build up a bit of a gross buffer.

It could edge ahead of Deathly Hallows on Wed/Thurs, but don't get taken in by 2016 Tuesdays vs Tuesdays from a few years ago. Tomorrow will be down 30-35%. Deathly Hallows dropped 15%. Doctor Strange's second Tuesday was up 40.9% over Monday and dropped 33.6% on Wednesday for instance. 5 years ago, Tuesdays were basically flat or slightly down from Monday, so Wednesday had a much lighter drop. EDIT: The same 33.6% for Fantastic Beasts off of 3.0M would be $1.93M. Deathly Hallows was $1.95M. It will be pretty close.

You have been here long enough to know how box office works. Thor the Dark world made just under $20M in the remainder of its run from this point. just that and $10M from Japan + the rest of Argentina is $646M with the rest of the world making $0 beyond yesterday. Domestic has been doing better than Thor: the Dark World since just after that first weekend. $10M for Japan and the rest of Argentina's run is a pretty conservative estimate. Even with poor holds, the rest of the world (everything other than DOM, Japan and Argentina) can't miss $15M given nearly $9M this weekend.