kswiston

Projections were generally a little lower, but still in the 30s. It's not like this is the 2017 Ted.

I guess it depends on how Smurfs performs. Beauty and the Beast will likely be under $30M by that point.

I'm still seeing $91M on Deadline. You sure the $100M wasn't the foreign weekend projection from that $500M WW article?

Rth hate always seems to come out when reality clashes with someone's hope for their pet film.

Can Logan still hit 700M RMB?

What is a realistic low end finish for Resident Evil based on a >$30M opening day? I know it has some big competition in coming weeks, but this weekend is going to be a huge start.

Last year started off the same way. Of course, annual box office has a different pattern in China, where Chinese New Year is the big holiday period. Some of their biggest films release now, while Hollywood uses Jan/Feb as an awards film spotlight and dumping ground (outside of your odd Deadpool or Lego movie). EDIT: Also, BOM goes by Domestic release dates, so you get stuff like Your Name on the 2017 chart, even though it will have made over 90% of its worldwide total in 2016.

I simultaneously did poorly in the ranking but decent enough by percentage. I would jave yo look at the spreadheet, but I'm pretty sure XXX and Rogue One brought me down out of the holdovers.

I thought I was being aggressive with my $30M prediction for Split, but I guess not! If estimates hold, I did pretty well this week. Redemption for last week!

Assuming that I don't get killed on the Founder, I think I will do alright this weekend. Early reports don't point to me being way off on anything yet, as was the case with Patriots day last week. It's time to return to the 80+ club after a 66 last weekend

It turns out that everything tanked my score! Terrible week for accuracy. Kudos to the few that were close to or over 80%

Silence is going to tank me. Patriots day to a lesser extent.

With new releases taking up 5 spots, and the Silence expansion taking up a sixth, there wasn't a ton of room left. I guess we could have had La La Land instead of Underworld. Anyhow, this was a hard week to predict. Tons of low openers, and a holiday weekend to mess up holds.

I was afraid of A Monster Calls, but I should have feared Fences! That 30-something really hurt. At least the actuals bumped me over 80%. Congrats Padre.

This was a rough week. I did pretty well on the new releases, but I was way too optimistic on the holdovers. Fences in particular murdered my score. It looks like a lot of people were in the same boat. Congrats to the three or four of you who have a good shot at finishing over 85% this weekend! Just hope that A Monster Calls doesn't shift by 200k in the wrong direction

A Monster Calls is going to be a killer this weekend... I feel fairly good about most of my predictions other than that one. Hidden Figures could surprise as well I guess.

12th, 6th, and 10th in my first three derby weeks if I am counting correctly. Not a bad start. Rogue One went from being my best prediction in week 52 to being close to my worst prediction in week 53. We'll see how this week goes!

I assume we will get actuals around the normal time (3-5pm). I want to see where I ended up in the past two derbys

TFA made ~$98M Fri-Mon that third weekend. TFA's third Monday wasn't really a weekend day, but I'm throwing it in for comparison's sake, since some of R1's Saturday gross was shifted to Monday due to New Years' shenanigans. With that in mind, TFA went on to make around $185M after that third Monday. Rogue One would gross another $120M with the same legs following this weekend's $64.3M. TFA's first Fri-Mon was $288M. It's third Fri-Mon made 34% of that figure. R1's first Fri-Mon was just under $173M, giving this past 4-day weekend 37% of that figure if estimates hold. Not terrible, but the Monday advantage should have put R1 ahead by more than 3 percent. If we want to compare the opening weekend multiplier obtained through the holidays (first 18 days, including that third Monday for comparison's sake), you get the following: The Force Awakens: 750M/248M = 3.02x Rogue One: 440M/155M = 2.84x Removing the Thursday previews (57M for TFA and 29M for R1) you get: The Force Awakens: 693M/191M = 3.63x Rogue One: 411M/126M = 3.26x In both cases, R1 seems to be trending behind TFA in terms of legs. As such, another $120M is not very realistic (especially since the Fri-Mon comparison isn't perfect, and lower grosses now mean fewer held theatres once January gets into full swing). I think that another $90-100M might be closer to the mark, putting the film in the $530-540M domestic range. Legs can be a bit weaker than that and hit your $525M goal.

Here's what I posted on a different forum for Rogue One at around 1pm last Thursday after we received Wednesday's numbers: ----------------------------------------------- Friday: $22.1M Saturday: $12.8M Sunday: $28.2M Monday: $31.0M 3-Day Weekend gross: $63.1M (-59%) 4-Day Weekend gross: $94.1M (-39%) For fun, I am going to say $62M for Tues-Thurs next week and $64M for the third weekend (not counting Monday, Jan 2nd) at this point in time. My third weekend is on the pessimistic side if my second weekend figures are in the right ballpark. Almost everything increased New Years weekend vs the previous X-Mas weekend in 2011. ----------------------------------------------- So a slight underprediction on the 3 and 4-day weekends, but in the right ballpark so far. I thought X-Mas Eve would be weaker and X-Mas would be stronger, but they mostly evened out. R1's Friday and Sunday were a 3% higher than what I predicted. If my Tues-Thurs and third (3-day) weekend totals continue to be close, Rogue One would be sitting at around $445M by the end of Jan 1st. If you want to assume that R1 will continue to run 3-4% higher than what I thought (given that every day has been a bit higher other than X-Mas so far), the total through Sun, Jan 1st would be $450M. SH: Game of Shadows, made $6M on Mon, Jan 2nd 2012, after a $10.8M Dec 26th. Given that Rogue One's Dec 26th was almost 3x as high, Jan 2nd could easily top $15M. That would be at least $460M using my numbers, or $465M+ going a bit higher. I don't see how Rogue One misses $450M, unless I am way off for this coming week's grosses. EDIT: Wow, bad timing for this. RIP Carrie Fisher... I'm glad she was able to be in The Force Awakens last year, and am sure she will be missed by millions in future films.

If Rogue One got the same drops/increases as Game of Shadows, you would have expected a $32.5M Sunday off of the $22.8M Friday.

The big bump today might mean less of a bump tomorrow. Tintin numbers aren't really a good fit on any of the days so far.

Family films received the worst bumps on X-Mas 2011 and 2005. That's why +77% for Sing is more impressive than the +127% for AssCreed.

That's an impressive bump for Sing given that it's an animated film. Pretty good for Assassins Creed based on a $2.2M Saturday as well. I'm surprised Rogue One is as low as it is given the rest though.

Rogue Rouge One at $25M?