kswiston

6.2M for Inferno via ERCBoxoffice

So a shot at a $45M opening if Sunday holds well.

So over $30M in 2 days. What are Sunday drops like this time of year?

Why did Olive stop posting the dailies? Was it do to a lack of posting by other people, or was it because someone else tried to take over that role briefly?

SUICIDE SQUAD makes an estimated $38.0M overseas weekend, down 35.3%, for a $310.4M overseas / $572.6m global total. #SuicideSquad

Suicide Squad will hit $300M. It's OW multiplier will be pretty close to Civil War's.

Spider-man in 2002 was first run of that type I can remember, just without the summer weekdays. The only $400M domestic films we had before then were Star Wars, E.T., Titanic and the Phantom Menace. Star Wars and E.T. were released in a different era and had multiple re-releases. Titanic was a marathon like you said. The Phantom Menace came out in the tail end of the 90s era when blockbusters were starting to see larger opening weekends, but were still expected to have more than a 3x OW multiplier.

Weren't a lot of people of the opinion that boxoffice.com's ~$85M OW/$175M DOM prediction was on the high side for Deadpool? Tracking the week or so before was definitely lower than $85M. Deadpool pulled a TED, but on a bigger scale.

~$100M OW and over $300M domestic for Iron Man was pretty big, especially since many people had never even heard of Iron Man the year before. IIRC, Iron Man's opening was briefly the 10th largest of all time (beaten by Indy 4 a couple weeks later), and was the second best opening by a non-sequel after Spider-Man. TDK definitely overshadowed that though.

It's just really hard to get terrible legs in August. 88 films have opened over $15M in August not counting Suicide Squad. Here is the list of films that have had worse legs than those required by Suicide Squad to get to $300M Fantastic Four (2015) Alien v Predator The Last Exorcism Halloween (2007) Halloween 2 (2009) The One Direction Film Even Fantastic Four's legs gets Suicide Squad to $292M, and Suicide Squad isn't going to lose a third of its venues this weekend like F4 did.

If this weekend in on the poor side (say $18-19M), it could miss $280M by the end of the following week, with a 50-55% drop on the weekdays ($9-10M) and a $9M fourth weekend. But even in that pessimistic scenario, you have Labour Day the following weekend. At worst, the 4-day Labour Day drop is going to be 20% from the previous 3-Day weekend. So figure: $241.5M going into the weekend and $259.5M as of Sunday (Aug 21st) with the terrible $18M weekend. $9M Mon-Thurs Next week and $9M during the Aug 26-28th weekend for a total of $277.5M $4.5M in the following weekdays and a 4-day Labour day total of $7.2M (-20%) That's $289M as of Labour Day being fairly pessimistic. The film won't just stop making money after that either. Batman v Superman made $11M after its $5.5M fifth weekend.

If you are comparing across years, you have to start considering exchange rates as well. A number of those $1B+ films from 2012-2013 fall under $1B if you were using the current rates. Iron Man 3 would have lost something close to $20M a piece from Russia and Mexico using spring 2016 exchange rates instead of spring 2013 rates. You would probably get a similar result for Brazil's gross. That's basically the difference between it and Civil War worldwide (granted Civil War did get a $70M bump in China).

Suicide Squad? It won't be anywhere near that. Germany and Japan are the only largish territories left, with no release in China. Domestic/International split last weekend was 48%/52%. Final international split will be somewhere between 53-55%. My guess is 54%

So around $350 OS now that China is out of the picture?

Trades and Box Office sites hyped Civil War in the few weeks leading to release, and then we started seeing those early reviews half way through April. I think that a narrative was built up with regards to it blowing past a disappointing Age of Ultron. Even when the post-previews opening weekend didn't support that, people were stuck on Quality = more money. Hence expecting better legs that never came. Hopefully we remember all of this when Infinity War launches and keep expectations in check.

2.5x is only $148M. Star Trek will be at ~$140M as of tomorrow's estimate, coming off a weekend around $7M, and a drop in the 30s. The next 3 weeks are pretty dead, and everything will get a Labor Day boost. I don't see how it misses $165M.

2.75-2.9x OW isn't all that bad. Pretty much on par with Into Darkness if you factor in the weird Wed/Thurs previews.

If legs = OW multiplier, Star Trek Beyond will be comfortably ahead of Civil War at the end of its run. Civil War made 44% of its gross in its opening weekend. Beyond is already at the same multiplier, and still has $30-40M left after yesterday.

Given the 3M and change difference yesterday when you subtract those Thursday previews, and the differences between an opening film and a holdover, I would guess ~5M in Suicide Squad's favour. More if Sausage Party was frontloaded.

Suicide Squad won't come anywhere near $530M overseas. Even $400M is out of reach with no release in China.

Nah. Even being conservative, A 45% increase on Saturday and a 35% decrease on Sunday gives you close to $41M off of $12M.

I think Deadline is lowballing a bit, but Sun to Thursday drop for Suicide Squad (73%) was pretty similar to those of Bourne (75%) and Star Trek Beyond (74%) over the past two weeks. A bit over 13M like they are reporting would fall between the Friday increases of those two films as well. Based on that, I'm guessing $46-48M unless Friday's bumped over $14M.

IMDB has Spain, Germany, France, and Japan opening next week or later in July. Italy opens in September. I think those are big enough markets to make $300M likely given the $100M start this weekend, but it won't be much higher.

1998 was sort of like 2014, where there were a number of solid earners but nothing broke out to monster numbers. Saving Private Ryan would have come in fourth in both 1997 and 1999, and third in both 1996 and 2000.

100-110M domestic if this weekend is in the 40-42M range. China is going to open to something like 37M. Based on recent trends there, I'd guess 65-80M depending on WOM. No idea about OS-China yet.