kswiston

That hasn't stopped several other actresses. She's not THAT young either at 29. I wonder if her parts in those Travelling pants films and in Gossip Girl lead to some of that. Green Lantern bombing when she was still brand new to the lead actress game probably didn't help either.

I think that the ID4R prediction is too optimistic. Given that the (weak) Thursday previews were close to 1/4 of Friday's take, I don't see it increasing 25% over Friday proper today. For Dory, it looks like you just took Toy Story 3's Saturday bump and subtracted a couple percent from it to match Dory's slightly lower Friday bump. Seems reasonable, though I could see Saturday a bit higher. Your prediction would lead to the $74-75M opening that a lot of places are expecting. The Shallows would need a bit over 20% bump over Friday to get to your Saturday number. I'm not sure how WOM will effect its box office this weekend, but I could see your guess being close.

I dont think Pets will slow down Dory very much. Despicable Me launched on that same weekend of Toy Story 3s run and TS3 went on to make close to $100M from that Friday onward. Dory is likely going to be over $400M before Secret Life of Pets launches.

ID4R is already going to struggle to beat Angry Birds. How many people here had Angry Birds over ID4R at the beginning of the summer?

Huge drop from the first film, but My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2's close to $60M domestic was triple its reported production budget.

Distribution on the less than $20M the film made outside of China/Hong Kong. Sony didn't get much out of Angry Birds either since they only handled distribution. They are having a pretty bad year.

So ID4R's Friday to Sunday business will likely be under the first film's Tuesday-Thursday total from 20 years ago.

What reason would there be to fudge? nilephelan had bumped up his Dory number to over $23M around the same time that Gitesh posted the estimate.

If Secret Life of Pets over performs (or severely underperforms) we could end up with no film in the $200-299M range until Suicide Squad. Its really been a year of feast or famine.

$45M seems wishful thinking for ID4 Resurgence after the $12.8M Friday. It would need to increase at least 20% today and have a good Sunday hold.

I think that the holiday weekend will save ID4 from sub $100M, but it's not going to reach much higher than that.

This year it's the "sequels are dead" narrative.

What does that mean for IDR over the weekend? $35-36M USD?

So, subtracting Thursday previews, ID4 Resurgence was $200k lower than The Conjuring 2 on its first Friday proper.

Regardless of whether the weekend is $70M or $75M, the previous fastest to $300M speed record for an animated film was 18 days, shared by Toy Story 3 and Shrek 2. At worst, Dory will hit that mark in 12 days (this coming Tuesday). That's as impressive as when TDK cut Dead Man Chest's record to $300M from 16 days to 10 days.

Deadline doesnt know how to do weekend multipliers even if they have been reporting on Box Office for over a decade. If they dont give a Friday number their weekend estimate is useless.

Is ID4 really doing that well in those other territories? Because China is looking like $35-40M this weekend.

7pm vs 8pm isnt going to make much of a difference. That's still two evening shows in the large majority of venues.

Looks like China is not going to deliver. ID4 is trailing Now You See Me 2 in its first day.

Given that those two films were over 20 years apart, and that there isnt much else like them in the $300M+ domestic club, I wouldnt hold your breath. Audiences seem to go for more fantastical stuff in their megablockbusters.

Wanda also owns a 80% share of AMC Theatres, which owns about 20% of the US screens. I wonder if Warcraft will get favorable retention in AMC theatres for its gross.

So $85-90M for two days. I am assuming that $150M+ USD will happen over the 5 day opening. Does AoU still have the opening "weekend" record?

Almost all the numbers in this thread are yuan unless stated otherwise. F7s 50M midnight was in yuan. $50M usd midnight in China is impossible (at least for now)

Warcraft presales started really early. Its not really realistic to expect 40% daily increases for two weeks. If you take the 25M number from 12 days to go to premier, the film would have over 1B in presales if it increased 40% a day. Obviously that isnt happening. Presales will probably pick up again closer to launch.

I think it's early to be calling locks (the film could suck), but an Age of Ultron to Ant Man dip going from TFA to Rogue One is still over $360M domestic. Coming off a $935M film in the same larger franchise is going to give it a lot of awareness.