kswiston
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Everything posted by kswiston
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I think you are starting to do the same thing you did last year with Ultron. Civil War isn't going to hold like Amazing Spider-man 2. Friday to Friday drop was pretty much the same as AoU. Friday to Friday drop without previews was within a percent of both AoU and Iron Man 3. -
I guess HP fans can still claim OS-China for Furious 7 and Jurassic World, since the Chinese Market wasn't nearly as strong in 2011. It's only a matter of time before $1B overseas is relatively common though.
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Is that all that relevant? Everyone in North America knows what Angry Birds are but we are still unsure how the film will do. The real question is whether anyone in China still cares about Angry Birds. The film really should have come out 3-4 years ago.
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I doubt that alice is getting a 200M ad campaign. I dont watch a lot of television but I havent noticed much promotion for it. The Jungle Book and Civil War were everywhere.
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Weekend Actuals: CA3 - $179.1M / JB - $24.49M / MD - $11.09M
kswiston replied to sfran43's topic in Numbers and Data
You had Ultron at like $425M at one point last year I think, and that ended up crawling its way to close to $460M. I don't see how Civil War loses more than $45M to Ultron in the coming weeks. Even if the drops next week are larger than we are expecting, things will even out in coming weeks, as they almost always do for huge films with decent to good WOM. -
I think the stuff featuring Iron Man is sort of this decade's Harry Potter. Massive hits that rank high on the all time list, but since we get them every year, it just becomes expected. Something like Zootopia will make hundreds of millions less, but it's more exciting because it came out of the blue and got to where it was on good WOM.
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Pretty close to Iron man 3, and ahead of both Avengers I believe. Of course, China messes things up.
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Sure it is if you are trying to conclusively rank the films. A 2.4x and 2.6x multiplier will give you a $36M swing and mean the difference between beating Ultron domestically or not. You can tell after 2 days of data which one of those are more likely?
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Its way too early to be projecting the domestic run.
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$400M domestic? Way too early to say anything on that front. Unless you mean $400M for the WW weekend.
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Superhero Fatigue: The only movie fatigue that leads to over $4B at the worldwide box office in 2016.
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I know there is a difference in reception but Thor and Iron Man 2 opened on Mothers day weekend. Their Sunday drops didnt seem to be particularly good for this time of year. Edit: At best I think the day will be neutral.
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How much are we expecting Mothers Day to affect the Sunday total. A few percent lower than normal?
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I doubt it will be that far behind both AoU and BvS with better presales than both.
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It may well gross less than AoU, but some of you guys are super reactionary.
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Iron Man 3 was over $500M overseas after its second weekend. Civil War is outpacing it in the majority of regions. $700M+ Worldwide will happen by Sunday.
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Ya, I was going to say that most of the country specific threads post in local currency and/or attendance.
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No movie with Iron Man in it has done less than $300M domestic, but you expect this to actually decrease from the Winter Soldier?
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Batman v Superman has pretty much no chance of beating Deadpool domestically. Even hitting $350M is becoming unlikely unless this weekend's domestic drop is under 50%. BvS' lead over Furious 7 is already down to $8M, and Furious 7 has come out ahead of BvS every day since Day 5.
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Yes. Well, many versions of it have been.
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I won't pretend to be an expert on China's current financial state, but when North America had its housing crisis recession last decade (which was the worst economic downturn in ~70 years) the domestic box office was barely affected. Unless people are starving in the streets, they are probably still going to want entertainment.
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Spectre opened to something like $45M in 3-days and failed to make double that. It's not that uncommon.
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It didn't really open on par with either of those because AoU was a Tuesday release and JW was a Wednesday release. Opening on Saturday gives TFA its biggest possible OD (since Saturday is the strongest day for films in China). So while that first day looked good in comparison to a lot of other first days, AoU actually had a better Sat and Sun (day 5 and 6) than Star Wars did (day 1 and 2). Jurassic World had a bigger first Sunday (day 5) than Star Wars (day 2) as well.
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All higher in RMB or just USD? I know Ultron was higher in local currency. Lost in Hong Kong was the local film I was thinking of, so I know that was higher as well.
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It's not the biggest Saturday ever, just the biggest opening day Saturday. Age of Ultron's first Saturday was higher. I don't pay as much attention to the performance of local films, but I am pretty sure at least one of those had a higher Saturday as well.
