I'll be laughing my ass off on nominations morning.
Here is where I don't agree with you. That movie will not have the wide spread support needed to WIN best picture. It's way too quirky and small. It will however be nominated.
I think 12 Years a Slave has this locked already.
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
The Butler
Captain Phillips
Fruitvale Station
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Rush
The Wolf of Wall Street
Runners-Up: Blue Jasmine, The Monuments Men, Philomena, Prisoners, Saving Mr. Banks
An extremely strong year.
Grown Ups 2 is a terrible, horrible film. Not The Reader.
Anyway, what was HORRIBLE about it? The main criticism was that it failed to deliver an emotional response for some viewers, nobody complained that it was horribly made, acted or written.
I certainly wouldn't say a nomination is assured for TMM. Clooney doesn't have a great track record as a director recently and the lackluster trailer disappointed quite a few people.
A lot of you have very different tastes to the Academy. Most of you skew towards very mainstream, action, blockbuster, broad comedy films. The majority of the Academy simply doesn't share an interest in those types of movies.
All is Lost
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Blue Jasmine
The Butler
Fruitvale Station
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Monuments Men
Saving Mr Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street
Runner-Up: Rush