Poseidon
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Everything posted by Poseidon
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Wow, that would be a really bad drop for Epic. And no surprise, that Fast 6 was overestimated, it's probably going to drop een more on monday. -
I think those are some very optimistic projections for "Fast 6". With "Fast 5"-drops over Memorial Day it would end up with 116,5m in 4 days.
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That's a great number for Fast 6, but 300m total at 75%? Are you kidding? At the moment, 100m 3d would be a surprise to me, it would need to increase slightly on saturday, can't see that to be honest. I mean, if it would behave like Pirates 3, it would do 91m 3day, and that one had massive thursday previews that took pressure off the weekend.
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I mentioned it before, looking at the circumstances, this is an amazing number for Fast 6. I'm pretty sure it will end up having a smaller screen count than Fast 5 in the end or at least it's having smaller capacities, as it has to share bigger theaters with Hangover and Star Trek. Quite disappointed, that epic fell like this from 12m original estimate. And STID is having a great hold here.
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The Rock most of the time plays supporting roles or in an ensemble. "Faster", "Snitch"...he was the "Star" there, look what they made. And Vin Diesel? Really? He made what the last 5 years? 3 Fast & Furious movies and Babylon A.D... Tyrese Gibson? Supporting Actor in smaller roles. Ludacris? Surely not a movie star.
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Who is the A-List-Actor in Fast & Furious?The Rock? The Man who lead "Faster" to worldwide success and glory?
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Yes, here's the problem. I'm not convinced you are ready to raise children, if you think it's a good Idea to take your 4 year old to the cinema watching Fast & Furious. So someone should step in here and make the decision for those parents. Theater owners should just say no, if there's no better rating system that protects children.
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US Rating System seriously needs some work done. You can't watch a comedy you see Meryl Streep smoking mariuhana before you're 17, but you can take your 4 year old to watch Fast & Furious 6. Crazy world...
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12m would actually be quite epic for Epic... Could go up to 60m with that friday.
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Normally, I would say, that Fast 6 should have no problem reaching 40m, but then, compared to Fast 5, that really opened in an open marketplace, i'm not sure, if it has to face problems with capacities, as we have 6 movies in more than 3000 theaters.
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Pulling a STID would mean 14,5m to 16,5m on friday going by current estimates...
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It's only 1-2m ahead of Kung Fu Panda 2 on thursday and that one only jumped 125% on friday... And i guess Kung Fu Panda would be the movie that should have a less frontloaded thursday, no?
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So every worst case prediction I mentioned yesterday could actually become true?Hangover opening 4th Fast 6 Previews > Hangover Thursday Well, Kung Fu Panda is laughing. SKADOOSH!
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And why would overseas BO jump by 70m to 400m, if Australia is opening weaker than Hangover 2, with probably even worse legs?
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I thought that was in late 90s, X-Men and Spider Man did great numbers then...
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Iron Man is one of the biggest comic heroes and had a very reasonable production budget. Captain America and Thor looked like bigger gambles to me.
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Okay. Thanks. But why 2008? X-Men were quite big, too, weren't they?
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You may laught at this question, but what exactly does "MCU" mean again? Marvel-Comic-Universe or something like that?
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And empty theaters won't help Hangover, as comedies and horror movies profit the most from packed showings in terms of experience and resulting WOM....
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I said "worst case" and it's not out of question, really. I'm not convinced of Hangovers rebound on friday, yet. It's a movie much more marketable via social media, I said that before. 25m fans at facebook, they should know, that H3 is opening on thursday. But should be more like 50-55m 4day for Hangover, Epic and STID wouldn't go that high. On the other hand, looks like Fast 6 should be able to do up to 120m over 4days.
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I think that's a pretty good number, as in 2011 99% were in easter holidays, this time, it's only 2 southern states, Bavaria and Baden-Würtemmberg, representing 25% of our population. It should overtake Fast 5 again on friday, but will lose many viewers on saturday, as we've got a new national holiday here called Champions League Final, but should be bigger on sunday, again.
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Am I missing something? Exploding? Where? It's expected to open softer than HO2 in Australia and I can pretty much guarantee, that it's not doing 4m admissions in Germany again, maybe not even 3m.
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Wow, I mean..those numbers could (really worst case) mean, that H3 is opening 4th place over the 4d memorial weekend.
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BTC had an amazing run of predictions lately, but I really can't see H3 doing 17m today, especially, when it states, that H3 is doing 56% less than H2 in comparison. To put that into perspective: H2 did 21m on thursday without midnights and should have had a slower matinee with a much bigger midnight number, but it's still much stronger than H3 there. Doesn't seem convincing at all.
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Neither ST nor STID have Oscar scripts, they are just a lot of fun, just like "The Avengers". ST came as a surprise in 2009, even though in my opinion had a weaker villain, than STID. STIDs problem is, that the surprise is gone now and people seem to have a closer look. To me, both are more or less the same: Just 2 hours of fun without stupid plot holes and very fast paced.
