Poseidon

I wouldn't underestimate "Les Miserables" yet. It's dropping better than "Dreamgirls" in 2006 and that one followed with the biggest Jump of all movies on friday. Actually, with Dreamgirls-jumps and without sunday being New Year's Eve, Les Miserables would do 40m 3 day and would beat the Hobbit with that number...Django is doing amazing business, really.And look at "Rise of the Guardians". Yay.

It helped 3D, no question, but HFR makes a movie look like sitting in a theater piece, while normally, to me, a movie feels like a beautiful painting that builds a window into another world. That's why i love cinema and that's what cinema is all about, isn't it? By being not "real", cinema created another reality and that's its charme and i don't want to miss that in the future, so that's why i chose "The Hobbit" to be my first and very probably last movie having seen in that new HFR-format.

They = The CriticsThey = "The Help" and "The Blind Side"?Either way, i don't quite understand your point.

We know that critics seem to have a problem with movies touching your heart.Best examples in the past are "The Blind Side" with 66% and "The Help" with 76% fresh. Both connected very well with "normal" people, that do not overanalize movies and don't get scared to tell it to the world, if a movie touches their hearts.

Baumer, you pretty well understood what my posting was about, even without mentioning the word "dailies" in it, as there was no other way to interpret it.

In dailies, obviously, as it passed BD1s total already.

BD2 is running way behind BD1 now and that one only made 8,5m from here, so more like 290/291m i would guess...But i guess that's because of much bigger competition this year, BD2 is in way less theaters over christmas, than BD1 was.

So, with holdovers dropping bigger than 2007 movies, the drops for Django and Les Miserables look even better.Parental Guidance dropping in the same range is not that great, may miss 100m now.

It should be Radagast, shouldn't it?

Those would be amazing holds by Les Miserables and Django, not so much for Parental Guidance.And a very nice number for "The Hobbit", too.Oh, and "Rise of the Guardians" seems to survive christmas, could make it to 100m after all, it's not much, but it's at least a milestone, it deserves. Still can't believe how a movie with so much heart could end up as Dreamworks biggest fail.

Tarantino, targeting a male audience. Look at how "The great debaters" and "AVP" dropped after opening on Christmas day. I just compared it to those, but as i said, sellouts for Django look good again today, so maybe i'm wrong and those comparisons are not the best matches.

I would rather read 150 other projections of possible Hobbit-runs, than reading your annoying spam/hate/whatever-posts again and again and again. It may have been fun 1 month ago, today it's like yesterdays christmas eve thread after having jumped the snake shark . Now back to Box Office... Les Miserables didn't quite do the 20m some hoped for, but with the Hobbit and Django out, too and the low theater count, maybe it faced a little capacity problem not being in the biggest theaters. It's still a great number and with its Cinemascore, especially with women, it should have a long run until the Oscars. Also, its low female share may be a good sign, as womens movies usually do good numbers on Dec 26th and so more women could come to cinemas, after all the christmas dinner stuff is finally behind them. We have 2 other musical comparisons for ChristmasDay, we have "Dreamgirls" and "Sweeney Todd" (that one already opened some days earlier), none had a drop bigger than 35% on Dec 26th, so i can't see "Les Miserables" being an exception. With good WOM (Ratings at IMDB and RT are up considerably compared to yesterday) and some Oscar nominations, expect 70-80m in its first 6 days and a total of more than 200m. Django Unchained had a great opening day, no question. Right in line with "Inglorious Basterds". How can it hold from here? It probably won't do as bad as "AVP" 5 years ago, but it could be more frontloaded than other movies are over christmas, even though sellouts look not bad at all for today. It should manage to open to 45-50m over its 6day-opening for a total of 110-120m. Parental Guidance is not the huge surprise early numbers made us believe, but it's still way above expectations. It really has to be compared to "Cheaper by the dozen", as that's a perfect match for its possible box office run. "Cheaper" had a bigger OD and movies are a little more frontloaded today, but it should make 35-40m for the first 6 days and somehow cross the magic 100m mark, maybe even as high as 110m. I mentioned it yesterday: Holidays are exciting again, i really like that.

Like the love you all have for box office numbers!

"Cheaper by the dozen" opened to nearly 8m and nearly 50m 6-day in 2003 and didn't make it to 150m, so i think 120-130m should be the goal.

So finally the christmas magic of 2009 is back, i'm really excited.Les Miserables, well, i expected that number, it's not a surprise after all those early sellouts, should at least make 175m now, which is amazing.Also great for Django Unchained, a little lower as "Inglorious Basterds", should hit 100m either way."Parential Guidance" is kind of a surprise, i actually had it at low 20s for 6d opening, but always had the sucess for "Cheaper by the dozen" in my mind, seems like a typical family movie."The hobbit" seems not that great, but after finally seeing it, i understand it. It's an okay movie (I would give it a 6,5/10 inkl. a little LOTR-Bonus), but so small and meaningless compared to "The Lord of the rings". And as a warning: I absolutely hated HFR, worst thing happening to cinemas since "Glitter".Back to Christmas, (with RTH-numbers) we could be looking at 6 day openings as follows:Les Miserables 70-80mDjango Unchained: 40-50mParental Guidance: 40-50mThats amazing.

It's a good drop for "The Hobbit". Right in line with "National Treasure" 5 years ago. If it would follow that ones drops, it would be at 235m after New years day.

It will be at 30m on thursday, maybe even on wednesday...Roughly 8m, that would be the same number "War Horse" did in even less theaters last year. No way "Les Miserables" will open to under 10m.

With a closer look, "The Hobbits" drop is not that bad. Dropping just 49% without midnights is better than "I am Legends" number, so 300m is still a/the goal for it.Looking at it as a LOTR-Sequel it may look a bit disappointing in the end, but as an adaption of a childrens book with a much weaker story than "Lotr", it's a great success.Maybe it's a good thing overall, it's a success, but at the same time, it's a warning for Hollywood. They need to realize, that the story is the heart of a movie and that even kind of sequels have to present a good one, maybe an even better one.I said it before, "The Hobbit" is like serving vanilla ice creme in a starred restaurant. People still like it, but maybe won't come back for it.For me, "The Hobbit" never had a chance to reach the quality of "The Lord of the Rings", maybe there are more people knowing the books, thinking like that.

And i'm starting to get annoyed, constantly being under fire for trying to make reasonable statements considering box office.I haven't even seen the Hobbit yet and i'm really not emotionally involved in a movies box office run as some others here.So, Baumer, befor you start getting personal, just go and check what i stated above and then tell me, what was wrong about my statement. It's all about numbers, I look at them, i compare them, i interpret them. I'm not god and i'm, obviously, sometimes wrong but i work with what i have and normally i'm pretty decent in finding good comparisons.

I don't know which song you mean, but it was probably not meant as a compliment, so i'm just ignoring it and go by the facts:Bad Friday for the Hobbit, but even worse for some of the others.

This is a very bad friday overall and it seems deflated. I don't understand why everybodys laughing at "The Hobbit"."Rise of the Guardians" only had a 75% bump, while Alvin jumped 130% in 2007.If Nikkis numbers are right, "The Hobbit" has the second best jump of all holdovers.

That "Rise of the Guardians" number should end up as Nikkis worst prediction in History. How should that work? That's ridiculous.

I am Legend had to compete with "National Treasure", "Sweeney Todd", "Charlie Wilson's War", "P.S. I Love you" and "Walk Hard".This years openers will do way less and shouldn't be the reason if "The Hobbit" would drop by more than 50%.

It always amazes me, when people tell that a movie is having bad WOM, based on their best friends guinea pigs mothers uncle not liking it...

Surprise? I actually thought it would open bigger. But i still think it can do 1m admissions.The real surprise this weekend is Pitch Perfect, by a mile!