Poseidon

So I thought i could do a little preview for German BO in 2013. It probably won't be the year of the big blockbusters, but i expect a lot of mid sized hits. Here we go. 1. Well, at this point, there's only one contender for 2013s Box Office crown and that is "The Hobbit: Part 2". The first one is having an amazing run, after what was kind of a disappointing opening. At the moment, that one should be on its way to 7m admissions and that's exactly what I expect for the sequel. 7,0m 2. "The Medicus" is really a bestseller over here, maybe even bigger than "Perfume" and "Pope Joan". The first teaser looks amazing, much better than "Pope Joan" and much more hollywood-like, also with a great lead actor. I think it should do 4,0m admissions, maybe even more. 3. Til Schweiger is the hero of german box office for a couple of years now, with 3 movies above the 4m admission mark over the last 5 years. He may not be that popular with critics, but audiences love his stories and I really think, that "Keinohrhasen" and "Kokowääh" were some really nice, funny and touching movies. I mentioned "Kokowääh" before, that became one of the surprise hits of 2011. The trailer for the sequel, "Kokowääh 2" looks decent and I think the drop in admissions won't be as big this time compared to "Keinohrhasen"/"Zweiohrküken". I expect 3,4m admissions. 4. "Despicable Me" was a pleasant box office surprise back in 2010, not only in the USA, but also in Germany. It developed pretty good legs, after an already surprising opening. Last time, it opened in late september, this time "Despicable Me 2" is getting a release in mid summer. Well, with "Kung Fu Panda 2" dropping considerably from it's predecessor, i should be more careful for this, but with the right minions-marketing and some rainy weekends in summer, i'm quite sure, that this can do a little "Shrek" and top the first movie for 3,2m visitors. 5. Another better-than-expected animation hit was "The Smurfs" in 2011. It came close to the 3m admission mark and had a decent multiplier after what was a big OW. "The Smurfs 2" opening a month after "Despicable Me 2" and only faces "Percy Jackson" and "The Lone Ranger" (I don't expect them to be big) in the following weeks, so another big run seems possible. Now the question is, can it have an increase like Alvin? I don't think it will be that big, but i expect it to do 3,0m this time, a slight increase. 6. Another German Hit could be Söhnke Wortmanns "Schoßgebete". It's been 4 years since his last BO hit, "Pope Joan", but now he's back with the adaption of the bestselling book here in Germany. "Schoßgebete" is the second novel of Charlotte Roche, after her very succesfull "Feuchtgebiete". Well, I think you really can't adapt "Feuchtgebiete", that, although having read neither that, nor "Schoßgebete", would probably end up with what would be an NC-17 rating in the US. Well, it seems like they adapted "Schoßgebete" as a comedy and we Germans love our comedies, so i wouldn't be surprised, if the movie would end up with 3.0m. admissions. 7. "Hangover 2" had a massive increase over part 1, but that was expected, as "Hangover" became a modern comedy classic all over the world. Part 2 actually had a decent multiplier and people seemed to like it, but it was far from being as good and funny as the first one and so i expect "Hangover 3" to drop to a still very solid 2,8m. 8. "The Hunger Games" opened a little underwhelming, but cleared 2m admissions after a very nice and long run. "Catching Fire" may not get hyped as "New Moon" was for the Twilight franchise, but i think the first movie helped the franchise to grow here, so it should manage to jump to 2,7m admissions. 9. Pixar is really having a hard time at the German BO the last couple of years, with "Toy Story 3", "Cars 2" and "Brave" underperforming. "Toy Story 3" should be the movie to compare "Monster's University" with, so I expect it to drop from "Monster's INC.", but not as much as "Toy Story 3" did. I think that Pixar lost many adult viewers with the last 3 movies, I think some should come back for the humor of Mike and Sully in "Monster*s Univerity" for 2,6m admissions. 10. Well, Til Schweiger is getting older and who know's how long audiences want to see him in his roles, but there's another very promising actor/writer/director named Matthias Schweighöfer, who had a couple of very successfull movies in the last couple of years. His newest feature is named "Schlussmacher", a movie about a man, whose business is to break up with his clients partners, and the trailer looks very good and funny. It's opening only 3 weeks before "Kokowääh 2", so it may be limited by that one, but i still think it could be big and Schweighöfers biggest movie as a director with 2,5m admissions. 11. Well, remember, we love comedies over here, and we also love Sandra Bullock in comedies (Okay, there was no love left for "All about Steve", but who could love that mess of a movie?). "The Heat" has some R-Rated "Miss Congeniality"-vibe, a big success 10 years ago. Early reactions for that movie seem to be great and even though the trailer is not the best ever, it is still very funny and with new comedy star Melissa Mc Cartney I could see this movie become a little break out hit with 2,5m admissions. 12. "Inglorious Basterds" became Tarantino's biggest movie here 3 years ago and it really had an amazing run to over 2m admissions. With "Django Unchained" kind of breaking out in the USA and with its very famous cast, especially with Christoph Waltz in another main role, i can see this ending up even bigger than "Inglorious Basterds" with 2,4m viewers. 13. As "Ice Age" is Germanys biggest animation franchise by a mile, so Blue Sky should be our biggest studio for animations, but there's no other Blue Sky movie with more than 2m admissions, even though all others still were kind of sucessfull. "Epic" seems like a great adventure and has some great trailers, so i think i could manage to do 2,2m admissions. 14. Well, Roland Emmerich has had some big blockbusters over here, even with destructing earth again in "2012" he came back from the disappointment "10000 BC" was. His newest movie, "White House Down" really doesn't look like the typical Emmerich movie, but maybe that's a good thing. As a "normal" action movie i don't see it that big, but 2,2m admissions still would be a great achievement. 15. Bora Dagtekin and Elyas M'Barek had a big comedy success this spring with "Türkisch für Anfänger", a movie to the series with the same name. Now they team up again with a movie called "F*** you Goethe", what looks to end up as a school comedy. It's hard to judge without a trailer, but i think they could do it again with 2,2m admissions. 16. You thought the Fast & Furious was dead after Tokyo Drift? Well, you were wrong. They grew bigger and bigger here with adding some of the biggest action stars of our time. Even though "Fast 5" was very well received and by far the biggest movie of the franchise, I can't see "Fast 6" getting bigger again, I actually see a slight decrease, but 2,1m visitors still would be great. 17. "Tangled" was a big comeback here for Disney Animation, the comeback of the classic Disney princess, after "The Princess and the Frog" was just a mid-sized hit. We don't know very much about "Frozen", yet, but i can't see it being a comedy like "Tangled" was, so it should be more difficult to do big numbers. It still should get a slight boost from Tangleds success, so i see 2,1m admissions for "Frozen". 18. 2009s Star Trek may not have been the franchises big comeback in theaters, but i think it will be its comeback for future movies, as people had the chance to see it on DVD now and recognized, that it's not the 90s/early 00s Star Trek anymore. I think "Star Trek into Darkness" should nearly double its predecessors numbers with 2,0m admissions. Other movies that could reach the 2m admissions mark: Die Hard 5 ( I can't see it doing Die Hard 4-numbers again, more like 1,5m-2m admissions. Les Miserables ( The musical is not THAT big in Germany and it probably won't help either, that there won't be much dialogue in it, but who knows?) 3096 Tage (It depends on how the press is going to react to this, at the moment i could see this do anything between 0,2m and 2m admissions, maybe even more) Oz - The great and Powerful (Alice was big over here, but that was due to 3D-hype. Should be more in the 1-1,5m range, but i could be wrong.) The Croods (Same as Pixar, Dreamworks is not what it used to be, but maybe the Avatar-Feeling can push it over 2m admissions. I'm thinking more like 1-1,5m at the moment.) 1000 AE (Will Smith is very big in Germany, but i think you see in the Trailer, that this is not a Will Smith Movie. Jaden was successfull with "Karate Kid" in 2010 and I think "1000 AE" should end up in that range, maybe a bit closer to 2m admissions.) World War Z (Brad Pitt is a draw here as well with the right movie, but i'm not sure if this could be another "I am Legend", more like 1,3m admissions.) Grown Up's 2 (Part one had more than 2m admissions, but Sandler is not a guarantee for big numbers anymore, so I see more like 1,5m for Part 2.) The Lone Ranger (Well, it's Johnny Depp in another Jack Sparrow adaption, but i can't see how this movie should work in Germany. I wouldn't be that surprised by under 1m admissions.) Turbo (Well, it's Dreamworks Animation, but i really can't see this being big at the moment.) Same for Mr. Peabody & Sherman Walking with Dinosaurs (We don't know much about that, seems like kind of a documentary but it's about dinosaurs, everybody loves dinosaurs so never say never.) As for the Superheroes: "Avengers" only barely crossed 2m admissions with all of them together in 1 movie, I can't see "Thor" and "Iron Man 3" increasing to more than 1,5m, "X-Man" Franchise is dead and "Man of Steel" would need a wonder to come back from the massive flop "Superman Returns" was. Okay, that was a very long posting. If you didn't stop reading in the middle of the text and read it till here, i hope you enjoyed it.

I don't need any sympathy votes and there's nothing fake about what I said, I just tried being polite.But it's probably the wrong place for that discussion, so I bow to the "patrons" and celebrate Django as another surprise story of the year 2012.

So the more you post, the less your opinion is "worth"?That's very sad, if that's what you really think.And no, I don't want to go to another forum, because this is the forum you should visit, if you like to discuss box office numbers.There's nothing wrong with having fun and it's nice to have some "buddys" to have fun with in a forum, but there are other users or just readers, that are not part of this "inner circle" who just want to be informed and I think that a little regard is not asked for too much.

So you come to the forum, see a daily numbers thread with 6 pages and all you get is The Hobbits wednesday number, Fisnets being Fishnets and a couple of people, who apparently grew up in very conservative countries, where a month of penis-jokes is considered as funny.Yeah! You are heroes, rebels. You said "penis".God bless you all!

At Least there is one country with some love for the Guardians...

It would have to increase over the last weekend...Next Friday should be the day the mark is passed.Django with an amazing Tuesday, Les Miserables still with some good numbers, but far from impressive compared to its OD.

I would rather not meet those families, seeing Texas Chainsaw as a family movie.

NYE is not dead for every movie, I expect Lincoln and maybe Silver Linings to go up.

Hunger Games did another 106m after a nearly identical 3rd weekend, while Hobbits is certainly inflated due to holidays.

FOTR made another 40m with its oscar run, "The Hobbit" obviously won't have that.At that point, 350m is not optimistic hope, it's nearly impossible, even though I also think, that 300m seems pretty much locked now.

Yeah, with its expected oscar legs...

The Lord of the Rings is a complete story and "The Two Towers" is just a chapter of it. Jackson did "The Lord of the Rings" in 2001, not 3 single movies.-

And I always said, that Jackson shouldn't have done "The Hobbit" and it seemed like he originally thought the same, as they gave the job to del Toro first."Job" is the right word, maybe it was just a job this time for Jackson. It's still great to come back to a place you love, but the first time will always be special.It'll be the same with going back to Pandora in 2015.

Django is Trantinos next movie after a 120m-success. Tarantino may not intend to do movies for the masses, but his style has become kind of mainstream nowadays.

Doublepost

So now we celebrate a movie selling more tickets than another movie on its 3rd weekende? Oh dear...Django really has an outstanding run, but i see Tarantino sitting in his living room, questioning himself, where exactly he has become mainstream. I think deep inside he hates the success.

Had a look at some theaters with reserved seats and those look better than yesterday, for whatever that means.

"Les Miserables" looks like it's doing much more business today compared to yesterday...

So "Les Miserables" is officially frontloaded now. It's a success, yes, but i really thought this could do 200m.What happend to Rise of the Guardians? Seems like it suddenly died with the same theater count?

Another daily numbers off topic thread? This forum is 1 thread away from jumping the shark.

"Dreamgirls" dropped another 30% on its 3rd day of wide release. Drops for "Les Miserables" were better for the last 2 days.

2012 is the year of big multipliers, so...And "Australia" had way less competition in 2008, admissions will be much higher on this years weekend.

No, but you said that it's not doing 40m because of it being in under 3000 theaters. And that's wrong, it's possible with the right screen count and we know that there is room for an 18m day for it.And burned off demand has really nothing to do with that calculation.

Pi should do more with that OW, even without wednesday and previews it would open better than "Australia" in 2008 and that one made 1,5m easily.

Being in under 3000 theaters hasn't stopped Tyler Perry movies from having 40m-openings. Or Hanna Montana from making 30m in just 700! theaters.