Two factors in my opinion will determine this, how frontloaded this will be and how barren the family market will be. A lot of the 7-8 year old girls who’ve seen Frozen are early teens now, and some mild nostalgia can take place and potential play more like Catching Fire than Frozen. There’s also a lack of big hits from Lion King to Frozen II except for Joker which is a wild card.
In my honest opinion, there’s a plausible and somewhat realistic chance that Pets 2, Pikachu, Toy Story 4 and Aladdin all go sub or barely reach $300M DOM as Lion King does around barely over $600M due to how competitive the landscape is. As I’ve said early there’s a likely chance no family movie between TLK and Frozen II crosses $100M DOM, the best chances are Spies In Disguise from Blue Sky and Dreamworks Abominable in September, both apart by two weeke. Blue Sky hasn’t had a domestic hit since Peanuts in 2015 and I still believe it may end up on Disney+ as Abonimable is the third yeti animated feature in a year and the closeness of the two films will hurt in other.
Those factors can cause to skyrocket OW along with how big and beloved Frozen is can potentially give us our first $200M OW for an animated movie.