JB33

Wait, TLJ actuals came in less than estimates? No way!!

I attribute that to Thor being an unknown quantity when the first film was released, with the character only becoming more popular as the MCU went on.

On a positive note, as many have already mentioned, we still have next weekend and all of next week foe the film to make up for some of the disappointing jumps - I've realized that it's not the drops that have been disappointing, it's some of the jumps. The calendar worked against TLJ in a way but calendar always evens out as well. However, I'm not expecting an increase next weekend as some were suggesting, or even a flat gross. Anything above a light drop is gravy.

By the way, this is coming from an absolute Star Wars loonie who enjoyed TLJ (for what it was anyway, but that's for another discussion) so there's no bias going on here. I just choose to tell it like it is. Remember, too, this is based on Star Wars' impossibly high standards. It may be kind of unfair, but that's what comes with being the top dog. Lofty expectations. These dailies are huge for any movie but yeah, they would be considered disappointing drops/bumps in this case.

My first prediction was $800M. Then I lowered it to $770M, which is a reasonable 3.5 multi for a $220M weekend. I say reasonable because I figured the multi could surpass RO but obviously fall short of the phenomenon that was TFA. With good WOM, I don't see how a 3.5 multi is unreasonable for this time of year. However, the dailies are showing that not as many people are packing the theatres to see this as we thought based on that opening weekend.

Ugh, FFS nobody is comparing TLJ to TFA. We're talking about the dailies and the drops here. No, TLJ is no TFA but it DID make $220M on its opening weekend and it IS enjoying this plum holiday slot. Yes, the calendar has played a part, but it should have had better numbers over its 2nd weekend (Christmas Eve Sunday obviously notwithstanding - it was always going to have a big 2nd weekend drop because of that) and Christmas Day could have been a lot better. You don't have to keep reminding us that it's still a big movie and that it would never have compared to TFA. We. Know! But this is a box office forum so we're going underneath the surface and taking a closer look at the numbers. That's why we're here! Not to go "Wow, TLJ is gonna make $600M!" and then just move on. I can go to SHH or CBM and do that.

Yep. I also said this weekend is what will tell the tale and it did. It told the tale of a movie that is still massive, yet is clearly not being completely embraced. It's not doing what it could if word of mouth was better.

I refuse to consider May the summer kick-off. It's still Spring. Summer to me is June, July, August. DEADPOOL 2 will be my summer kick-off movie.

Yeah just checked. Fair enough. I guess the lesson here is Star Wars episode-to-episode historical trends outweighs box office trends. Otherwise, we wouldn't see TLJ deviating so much in a bad way. I maintain that this Christmas Day jump is a major disappointment though, no matter the circumstances. WOM clearly is an issue as well.

This is based on each movie's first run?

I'm usually above that kind of stuff but I'll admit it's a bit of vindication after several posters tried to make us feel stupid for seeing the writing on the wall last week. "Grab a calendar, stupid!" Yeah, nice one.

I'm expecting a decrease. The bar with this movie seems to keep going lower, even though we're dealing with large numbers on the whole (feel like I have to keep putting that disclaimer so I don't get jumped or lectured at).

Gotcha. Yeah, with you there.

TLJ is the movie event of the year - perhaps the last 2 years - and it's also ringing in some unexpectedly lower numbers than we all expected. Yeah, it's going to dominate the thread. But yes, Jumanji is quite the story. Hopefully it evolves into its own Christmas time tradition franchise. We all know that's where NATM got started.

Go nuts.

I think its because some people were spending so much time lecturing us last week when we were questioning the TLJ numbers and word of mouth. Now I think some are dishing it back a bit and I honestly don't blame them. Shows that nobody really knows box office any more than the other here and that the lecturing needs to stop.

Is Scott drunk?? Says AMERICAN SNIPER had a female lead. Uhhhh.....

So the TLJ number really was 27 huh? Geez... So much for the calendar being the issue.

You're killin us here Rth!

My new guess is $35M. 27 + 8 (the age 8+ from the Monopoly picture) = 35.

Seems unthinkable. If so, who saw THAT coming??

And TLJ way under?

2 to 4 players = 24 Age 8+ = 8 24 + 8 = 32M??

Yes it would be...quite disappointing, especially after several people here going "Pfft, it'll do $35M-$40M on both Monday and Tuesday. Stop freaking out guys!!".

Oh man I hope it's $37M!