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Barnack

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Everything posted by Barnack

  1. They could be a little too late too moneytize that Strangers things money like Warner Brother It achieved to do so well, but it could still well and a style that can be good for the budget, not just because the cast is free. Considering it's the first I heard of the feminist reception of the Tatum-Pratt version I would imagine that they were many magnitude less toxic in the life of everyone involved yes. same goes for a single tweet from a single person.
  2. Sometime it feel forced, in sport there is an actual winner take all, if someone else team win it mean your favorite team didn't, being a good field to get into some fight about it. With giant superheroes movies working has a quasi-monopoly structure to maximize profits like they are doing ? It is even the other way around, far from a winner take all, a looser can hurt the other one situation.
  3. I suspect that by saturday morning of the OW they will sound like the Force Awaken/Fury Road one.
  4. Maybe, but it is such easy click-bait traffic for people that can write content without leaving their computers nor even making one phone call, that can easily imagine them all doing it on their own. Do you think people here saying the same as those article work for Disney ? Do not underestimate how much agenda driven Silicon valley employee can get, nor how good for traffic they can be (specially if people like you all around the web are reading it and linking to it to others pushing it like you are doing and like people just did to you I presume)
  5. https://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Director&id=jamesgray.htm Date Title (click to view) Studio Lifetime Gross / Theaters Opening / Theaters Rank 4/14/17 The Lost City of Z BST $8,580,410 866 $110,175 4 2 5/16/14 The Immigrant Wein. $2,025,328 150 $44,064 3 4 2/13/09 Two Lovers Magn. $3,149,034 148 $94,986 7 3 10/12/07 We Own the Night Sony $28,563,179 2,402 $10,826,287 2,362 1 10/20/00 The Yards Mira. $889,352 146 $57,339 8 6 5/19/95 Little Odessa FL $1,095,885 - n/a - 5 Twenty years after his father left on a one-way mission to Neptune in order to find signs of extra-terrestrial intelligence, Roy McBride, an Army Corps engineer travels through the solar system to find him and understand why his mission failed.[2] http://film.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2.0-Website-Approved-Projects-List-Online-12.10.18.pdf 2016-2017 Ad Astra Lima Project Films Feature Film Indie 60 1252 272 99 $ 49,751,000 $ 2,500,000 Sound a lot like a Annihilation/Solaris (with a 88% RT, 8/10 type of reception and very good trailers, good buzz, really big and good press made 32M because it had good legs). Would be really interesting if this match Arrival massive success story (100m). Lost City of Z was quite epic and James Gray with non insignificant budget (50M below the line in California) isn't nothing, Pitt can still put a lot of awareness on a title and help it if the movie deliver, but that a James Gray Sci-fi, more than doubling is previous box office peak isn't certain.
  6. Why do you say so low it is still 14 people and if they do it on a particular spot it is a good idea to put a net there (there is protective nets from the puck in every nhl arena because there was one death one year), but when you are a company of nearly 1 million employee you will have many suicide among them every year, the step to say that it is a special level / crisis can easily be manufactured, specially if the company is a big traded public one. And that was my main point, lot of stuff is China made and not in better condition (allegedly in average worst condition)
  7. Was is not just OGM in India farmers suicide level of fake news non sense ? https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/07/10/apples-chinese-suicides-and-the-amazing-economics-of-ha-joon-chang/ There were up to 14 suicides (it depends whose count you want to use) among that 1 million. The average rate of suicide in China is 22 per 100,000 people per year. That is, the suicide rate at Foxconn was under 5% of the general suicide rate of the Chinese population. The mineral wars and many other aspect are terrible, but is the manufacturing of phone situation quite different than TV, computers, clothes, some cars parts, bus parts, plane parts, etc.... ?
  8. The choice or words felt very much SJW-ness and yes it was under the optic of diversity, if you reduce the bar of what is needed to producer and distribute content normally it should augment diversity of content. Does sound trivial and quite uncontroversial, people are purely triggered because of trigger word in there, like privilege and so on.
  9. I imagine that will be never known. To give some idea of what it could look like. A movie like Here Comes the Boom: Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $45,290,318 62.0% + Foreign: $27,809,854 38.0% = Worldwide: $73,100,172 Could be a somewhat comparable in term of intl prospect ? That did in intl revenues: INTL HOME ENT REVENUE 7,083 INTL HOME ENT PPV REVENUE 1,861 INTERNATIONAL TELEVISION REVENUE 18,900 To get those revenues they needed to spend 3.1m more in theatrical than their rental and 3m spent in home ent releasing cost. for about 21m in profits. I imagine a 14-16m of certain and in advance money with 0 risk would be quite interesting for a studio. For some example, the movie Robocop sold is UK and Germany market for 13.5M, it did 13.33M and 5.17M there and those are strong market post theatrical I think for studios with good retention rate. First Hunger Games sold everything (including Canada) except USA/UK for a rumored 60m, it did 250m but obviously an overperformer. American Hustles pre-sold a lot if not everything outside the USA/Mexico/Brasil for about 30-35M.
  10. All those show decision were on Netflix court no ? That was more the other way around, Netflix realizing they were exposed and had a weakness, wanting to go more and more with fully owned from A to Z original content I think.
  11. They are using stuff I am not sure were realistically usable (or existing) 4 year's ago: Camera Arri Alexa 65, Panavision Sphero 65 Lenses Panavision Millennium DXL RED Weapon 8K VV Monstro Negative Format DXL RAW (8K) Redcode RAW (8K) Cinematographic Process DXL RAW (8K) (source format) Dolby Vision Redcode RAW (8K) (source format) Apparently they tend to shoot with a lot of camera at the same time like a live tv show, must be quite the challenge to make them look really good.
  12. It is a Disney Marvel movie fair to assume poor marketing does not mean small budget.
  13. They are for a big part total unknown and anonymous like you said, thus not really playing themselves, specially the older one that will be dead by that time, they don't get some social punishment from "bad" voting choice of their past. It make total sense for them to use their powers to receives benefit from their positions of voters, if they rewards being courted, the future year's the budget and energy to court them will increase, if they punish campaigning they do not like or it absence they will get campaigning they like and so on.
  14. No but 334 million in 2008 was a lot of revenues: Just getting out of a 25 billions business, to give an idea the 2006 Pursuit of Happiness made 399m in revenues from is 307m (1.29x ratio), the 2010 release Salt made 358.7m with a 293m box office (1.21x ratio). Button probably made around 375 to 425m, on a 150m production budget, a 105m world release with award season expense, 60m other cost like residual, manufacturing/home ent release, overhead and you have 55 to 105m in profits to go among the Fincher/Pitt the studio and co.
  15. First Captain America when over 200m gross production budget and got a sequel with a 370.6m box office. Cloudy with a chance of Meatballs did 2.08x (243m / 116.84m) and got a sequel. Angel&Demon got a "sequel" and did 2.56x (496/193.56) xXx state of the union got a sequel and that did under 1.0 (71m on a 72.7m budget) Batman Begin, GI Joe Cobra, X-Men First Class, Mission Impossible 3, the recent Star Treks, etc...
  16. Not so long ago 2x it's production budget was the benchmark for a movie being a nice success (think back first Captain America/Batman Begin days), since the fall of the dvd bubble pass 2010 and international usually being a larger share, 2x the budget shifted to just break even instead of clear success territory. Many movie can fail to recover their money while doubling their budget because: 1) Some participant have first dollar gross, the real rules of thumb is not box office >= 2.0 x budget, but Box Office >= 2x (production budget + participation bonus), if you follow the second of all the leaked movies between 2004-2014 from the sony leak, about none lost money, Fincher Dragoon tattoo being a rare exception by a small amount. 2) Ultra international heavy 3) Much larger releasing cost expecting a much larger box office than obtained, say a small Blum horror movie at 10m budget, but getting an Universal worldwide 75m release, obviously it need to do more than 20m then. JL should then well break even if the rumored cost are true, but the Snyders, Affleck and many others could have participation bonus that kicked-in making it less obvious (like MIB 3 loosing money despite comfortably doubling it's budget, once you consider Smith and others it didn't came close to double it's real budget)
  17. True for pretty much all heroes. If it happen, probably for the same reason of the first one, in exchange for the chance to invest in a Avatar sequels if Avatar 2 is a big success (and if this something Cameron kept the right to do).
  18. It tend to be more the other way around, if the smaller theatrical revenues achieve to eat the marketing releasing costs, you are usually in good shape for the bigger non theatrical revenues to cover the production and turn a profit. If we look at the recent trend Warner brothers revenues in movies their last 3 annual report: In money In % 2017 2016 2015 2017 2016 2015 Theatrical Rentals 2,268 2,180 1,578 38% 39% 31% Home and electronic delivery 1,567 1,481 1,717 26% 26% 33% Movie playing on TV 1,853 1,630 1,579 31% 29% 31% Merchandise 350 321 269 6% 6% 5% Total 6,038 5,612 5,143 Universal studio (pretty much the same): 2018 2017 2016 2018 2017 2016 Theatrical Rentals 2,111 2,192 1,560 30% 29% 25% Home and electronic delivery 1,048 1,287 1,182 15% 17% 19% Movie playing on TV 2,899 2,956 2,518 41% 39% 40% Merchandise 1,094 1,160 969 15% 15% 16% Total 7,152 7,595 6,229 If we remove merchandising Theatrical Rentals 2,111 2,192 1,560 35% 34% 30% Home and electronic delivery 1,048 1,287 1,182 17% 20% 22% Movie playing on TV 2,899 2,956 2,518 48% 46% 48% 6,058 6,435 5,260 They made 2.5 to 4 dollar outside the theater versus in theater, that is pumped by library title obviously, but it does seem to indicate that home ent diminution is being picked up by pay TV (probably Netflix effect) nicely. Cameron could have first dollar points, making all calculation and talk about the movie budget a bit fruitless, but the : Fox contends breakeven is between $350M-$400M, while other finance film sources with knowledge of the budget say it’s significantly more Usually studio could be massaging it down or talking about their own break even point and not the movie break even point (third party venture capitalist investing in those movies do tend to take a larger risk and to break even after the studio) and the finance film source working for the competition will tend to be harsher than reality. But if people accepted no gross point considering the era and risk of the project (possible) and if the real budget is in that 170m range, 350 to 400 would make sense. If we take the first Hotel Transylvania for an example of a 350m to 400m movie (378$ being close to the middle) Revenues Domestic theatrical: 73.913m Intl theatrical: 81.376m Total revenues: 356.802 (75m from tv, around 116 from home ent) That movie would have broke death even at a 195m net production budget (if they kept the world release cost at 108m at that budget). Angry Bird accounting projection model show expecting revenues at $373m WW to support an around $200M net production cost (if no one take bonus at that BO)
  19. We got one of the least expecting member to convert into the brand/Superheroes is getting too strong complaining team.
  20. Very similar BO numbers / budget, but in term of disappointment Alita is playing pretty much in line if not above expectation (at least domestic start), while Blade Runner 2049 had really big buzz, great Thursday and felt like a 40m OW that would do 132m+ dbo until it's Friday (with is 35dbo/65intl ratio of interest level would have turned great) if not Saturday. First Man felt like the Blade Runner redux more, not just lead cast wise, but the great social media start, great reviews followed by the disappointment. Alita is more the 2019 bigger Valerian in a way, a bit obscure (in the domestic market) comic book property proposing some high concept world building, vastly linked/sold on the producer name and is previous giant Sci-fi affair, always had that this is made with the worlds market in mind feel to it, impressive visual with flawed storytelling element not fully coming up together, young male lead not helping, 50/60% type of reception.
  21. Is it ? Edge of tomorrow true Friday was around 8.8M and that had summer days in front of it for it's legs.
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