Barnack

2018 was not a bad year for the non biggest blockbusters too no ? of the 40 movies reaching 200m: 1 Avengers: Infinity War BV $2,048.4 $678.8 33.1% $1,369.5 66.9% 2 Black Panther BV $1,346.9 $700.1 52.0% $646.9 48.0% 3 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Uni. $1,309.5 $417.7 31.9% $891.8 68.1% 4 Incredibles 2 BV $1,242.8 $608.6 49.0% $634.2 51.0% 5 Aquaman WB $1,110.2 $326.0 29.4% $784.2 70.6% 6 Venom (2018) Sony $855.0 $213.5 25.0% $641.5 75.0% 7 Bohemian Rhapsody Fox $835.1 $209.6 25.1% $625.6 74.9% 8 Mission: Impossible - Fallout Par. $791.1 $220.2 27.8% $571.0 72.2% 9 Deadpool 2 Fox $778.7 $318.5 40.9% $460.2 59.1% 10 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald WB $652.8 $159.4 24.4% $493.4 75.6% 11 Ant-Man and the Wasp BV $622.7 $216.6 34.8% $406.0 65.2% 12 Ready Player One WB $582.9 $137.7 23.6% $445.2 76.4% 13 Operation Red Sea WGUSA $579.2 $1.5 0.3% $577.7 99.7% 14 Detective Chinatown 2 WB $544.1 $2.0 0.4% $542.1 99.6% 15 The Meg WB $530.2 $145.4 27.4% $384.8 72.6% 16 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation Sony $528.1 $167.5 31.7% $360.6 68.3% 17 Dr. Seuss' The Grinch (2018) Uni. $508.8 $270.5 53.2% $238.3 46.8% 18 Ralph Breaks the Internet BV $487.1 $197.3 40.5% $289.8 59.5% 19 Bumblebee Par. $456.8 $125.1 27.4% $331.7 72.6% 20 Rampage (2018) WB (NL) $428.0 $101.0 23.6% $327.0 76.4% 21 A Star is Born (2018) WB $417.8 $208.3 49.9% $209.5 50.1% 22 Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again Uni. $394.7 $120.6 30.6% $274.1 69.4% 23 Solo: A Star Wars Story BV $392.9 $213.8 54.4% $179.2 45.6% 24 Fifty Shades Freed Uni. $371.9 $100.4 27.0% $271.5 73.0% 25 The Nun WB (NL) $365.6 $117.5 32.1% $248.1 67.9% 26 Monster Hunt 2 LGF $361.7 $706k 0.2% $361.0 99.8% 27 Peter Rabbit Sony $351.3 $115.3 32.8% $236.0 67.2% 28 Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse Sony $350.2 $177.4 50.7% $172.7 49.3% 29 A Quiet Place Par. $340.9 $188.0 55.1% $152.9 44.9% 30 Mary Poppins Returns BV $329.8 $169.1 51.3% $160.7 48.7% 31 Skyscraper Uni. $304.9 $68.4 22.4% $236.4 77.6% 32 Ocean's 8 WB $297.7 $140.2 47.1% $157.5 52.9% 33 Pacific Rim Uprising Uni. $290.9 $59.9 20.6% $231.1 79.4% 34 Maze Runner: The Death Cure Fox $288.3 $58.0 20.1% $230.2 79.9% 35 Tomb Raider WB $274.7 $58.3 21.2% $216.4 78.8% 36 Halloween (2018) Uni. $253.7 $159.3 62.8% $94.3 37.2% 37 Crazy Rich Asians WB $238.5 $174.5 73.2% $64.0 26.8% 38 Paddington 2 WB $227.3 $40.9 18.0% $186.4 82.0% 39 Smallfoot WB $214.1 $83.2 38.9% $130.9 61.1% 40 Creed II MGM $202.6 $115.6 57.1% $87.0 42.9% Around 14x have rumored budget under 100m, 9x 50m or under.

I think this simply a joke, like Chris in that sentence would be for one of the actor in the movie (looking at the feed, seem a bit obsess by Hemsworth and made some Damon/Neeson jokes)

For Disney, but if it was just a movie I am not sure that would be true, it depend a bit of how it plays. Take that movie for example: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=hitch.htm Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $179,495,555 48.8% + Foreign: $188,604,865 51.2% = Worldwide: $368,100,420 It's budget+ participation bonus was $140m, it made a ton of money a giant 150m in profits, high domestic performance is quite significant. Trying to look at some comparable in that budget range, Elysium at $164m (126m in direct production budget, rest in bonus) was expected to hit is this a nice use of capital return of 15.5% ROI at 145m dbo / 203m intl.

You can loose the 1 billion dollar you just put in the project, that what usually loosing money is. Say instead of putting 1 billion dollar like you described, one go this way: I pre-sold some of the international market for 400m I got co-investor for 400m I put 200m in. The movie end up just breaking event their releasing and all other cost. Did I loose more money than in the scheme you described above ? No I lost 200m instead of 1 billion, the more you finance your movie with other people money, the less money you can loose on them (but smaller the profit when it goes well). 100% financing money yourself is the scenario where you can loose the maximum money on a movie ever.

Well not sure you need to add any hedge fund story to say that Avatar franchise has a whole will not be a franchise looser...... First one made 2.73b at the box office and has probably been the biggest bluray sellers in the world. A bit like star wars, it could have 10 Solo in a row and the franchise has a whole would not have lost money, does not mean you do not loose money on those Solo failure. Has for that rumor, Who is they in that sentence ?, Dune (now TSG), Fox, Lightstorm a VC silent third party that would have earned the right to finance the movies and remove to the other player the chance to invest in them ? Speculating here but I would have imagined that people financing the first had a close that gave them the opportunity to finance the next one (thus why it is not only Fox and Lightstorm producing, but Dune also coming back) and that it is against co-financed by more than one entity and not just some edge fund (the profits of the first one didn't went to one company in particular, but split among all investor and Cameron)

If you buy a loto ticket with money you already have does that mean you cannot loose money on it ? Not sure what you mean here ? Is it like saying producer of Blade Runner could not loose money because they financed it with The Blind Side money fund ?

Not sure if serious, but one big reasons is how legs tend to work for a Christmas release versus a february sequel movie with an lower cinemascore than the first release, 6x+ multiplier are common for a MPR type with that release date, cannot happen here. At 31M start is a risk at ending under 110m, first movie was 55/45 dom at least the $100m budget is low enough. Has for Floppin, I know you are just trolling, but just to be sure do you think a movie going significantly over is large budget domestic alone is flopping ? Maybe, but also arguably it make absolutely just 0 sense to make more than one movie, the concept is already explored, why do an other one at all using lego against ? From the trailer the fact they were in legos did seem 100% irrelevant with the movie concept purely because they were trying to make a sequel of a successful movie, unlike the first one.

Would not say for sure, He already has studio movie shoot to be released like Men in Black. Could happen, could be hard to notice considering most of is output was rarely made by the big studio's, lot of europeen one like the Taken franchise, The Commuter, Cold Puirsuit, etc... If you look at what coming up on is IMDB page: Marlowe (announced) Philip Marlowe Charlie Johnson in the Flames (pre-production) Made in Italy (pre-production) Robert Honest Thief (post-production) 2019Normal People (post-production) Tom 2019Men in Black: International (post-production) Studios are not making that many movies nowaday. Last year wide release under main label, just release, not necessarily made themselve: WB: 19 Uni: 18 Fox: 11 Disney: 10 Paramount: 10 Sony: 8 Down to 76.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/?view2=domestic&view=releasedate&p=.htm Not excatly, 2018 was higher than 2011, 2014, 2017, almost the same has 2015/2016.

Those are far from flop.

Does WB get anything from those ?

Well considering 2017/2016/2015/2014 start were all much bigger than 2019, not just 2018, yes movies being weaker do seem to be the way to go, I mean, the previous year had literally a star wars playing. Look at this: Year Gross* 2019 % change 2018 % change 2017 % change 2016 % change 2015 % change 2014 % change 2019 $913.1 - -16.5% -16.6% -21.8% -21.8% -10.6% 2018 $1,093.5 +19.8% - -0.1% -6.4% -6.4% +7.1% 2017 $1,094.9 +19.9% +0.1% - -6.2% -6.2% +7.2% 2016 $1,167.8 +27.9% +6.8% +6.7% - -0.0% +14.3% 2015 $1,167.8 +27.9% +6.8% +6.7% +0.0% - +14.3% 2014 $1,021.3 +11.9% -6.6% -6.7% -12.5% -12.5% - When did the subscription service boost happened and leaved ?

WB already have HBO Go has a streaming platform, and they want to augment it yes: https://geektyrant.com/news/now-warner-bros-is-launching-a-streaming-service It’s said that the new platform “will be fronted by HBO, with content from additional Warner Media brands bundled around that premium cable service.” Stankey says: I imagine it could be nothing changing outside of branding, because media/Internet seem to consider streaming platform has something different than HBO Go for some reason.

Well maybe not fire, but $1.25m in previews is quite good, that 93% of arguably the biggest domestic draw in a comedy (or just in general) right now Kevin Hart Night School and the same has Ride Along 2. But yeah with those pre-sales numbers and early twitter about crowd reaction, I also thought it could go 24-28m and leg it out over 90m, if that 20M old would be a bit of a deception.

Like Ted, the giant success of the first one was probably deeply linked to the novelty.

Edgar Wright Baby Driver, The Favourite, Phantom Thread, Vice/The Big Short, 3 billboards, Logan Lucky, The Nice guys There is a strong believe that if you do not have a flat image it will remove from the comedy, many feature lot of improve.

I am not watching every material (that spoiler heavy), but that seem to be a case of when the movie start she barely know she has special power to having all of them in the third act battle scene in space.

The movie still work really well when that sentence take you by surprise (knowing it, you think it would be said in the opposite context) in a bit of devastating way. To have seen it for the first time in 2017 and is maybe my favorite movie watching experience ever absolute extraordinary movie. I think that a movie that aged remarkably well and would play really well in theater with a modern audience, there a reason many theater was still playing it every year until very recently.

There is also some mathematics to it, factorial (!) make it almost certain will be hypocrite outside some crazy extremist/fundamentalist. If you make 100 statement and 100 actions, the chance than none of the action / statement does not goes in logical opposition on the 99 others (or the implication when you combine some) are almost nill, we are all imperfect walking contradiction, molding our action and statement along to make them vaguely cohere. Amazon sign a nice contract with Allen knowing full well all of the accusations yes, but Amazon do not care about movies they want product/publicity for a platform they sell. Allen big name what the thing they were buying, remove is prestige and they are not interested, forcing cast into this is not worth it and so on, not sure it is hypocrisy, not sure they ever postured themselves as being in this for the art and remove it because of some moral purity and not a reputation for the platform/relation with press and talents business decision. That said depending of the contract (if it had any must put the movie on the platform, X weeks in theater type of clause), Allen should win (not necessarily the asked amount obviously), I really do not see any possible defense on the Amazon side legally.

Could have really been the complete opposite, a oh "now in the current context if I learned this someone else will, it will splash the movie, would be better for everyone to cut a registered sexual predator scene from the movie to not hurt the movie release"... And it leaked.

That was an other: We are receiving phone call at deadline that it did cost much more than 100m case: https://deadline.com/2018/12/mortal-engines-bombs-at-the-box-office-1202520828/ Some film finance sources who were even asked to participate in the project claim that the production cost is even higher than the $110M being floated around. That would make sense, projects like that are heavily co-financed and they will have many people that have passed on it knowing about the planned cost at least.

Is Amazon Hollywood ? That Silicon Valley hypocrisy, a newer more advanced kind. P.S. A bit tongue in cheek here, Silicon Valley and Hollywood are really close.

It does obviously, but not has much has some could think. Men are most likely to list Star Wars as their favorite film, followed by The Godfather and Titanic. Women, meanwhile, name Gone with the Wind Titanic and Dirty Dancing as their top three. Titanic for example got in both men and woman top 3. Group FIRST CHOICE SECOND CHOICE THIRD CHOICE Men Star Wars The Godfather Titanic Women Gone with the Wind Titanic Dirty Dancing Age is a big factor obviously, but you still see a lot of movie making it in 2 or 3 generation, top 3 (not top 20, top 3 that is really high) Millennials (18-37) Titanic Lord of the Rings Star Wars Gen X (38-49) Star Wars Titanic The Godfather Baby Boomers (50-68) Gone with the Wind Star Wars Titanic Matures (69+) Gone with the Wind The Sound of Music The Godfather Titanic will become number one overall soon I imagine, has the older generation pass and has a good shot to still be adult American favorite movie in 50 year's, 70 year's after it's release like Gone with the Wind was. Pixar/Shrek must have some special place also.

What make it strange for the 1939 Oz, it was the same year of the biggest movie ever and the most loved movie ever, you also have It's a wonderful life is just in 1946 not so far away. I think this is a good way to start: https://theharrispoll.com/it-may-have-premiered-75-years-ago-but-it-would-appear-that-wind-has-still-got-legs-when-asked-to-name-their-favorite-movie-of-all-time-the-septuagenarian-civil-war-epic-gone-with-the-wind-is-ameri/ 2014 ranking in right column. 2008 Gone with the Wind 1 1 Star Wars 2 2 Titanic 3 The Godfather 9 4 Lord of the Rings 4 5 The Sound of Music 5 6 Dirty Dancing 7 Wizard of Oz 6 8 It’s a Wonderful Life 9 E.T. 10 All of those above are good candidate, specially those who made the list both in 2008 and 2014 or very high like Titanic. The Matrix could feel like one of the late 90s with Titanic, red pill and many other cultural element from it are long lived. Some not showing in 2014 that were there in 2008 like Casablanca and Forest Gump are not bad pick either.

With Avatar still arguably the biggest success ever there, Ready Player One last year, Jurassic World, etc.. Seem to be high on their list of favorite.