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Everything posted by Barnack
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DiCaprio is probably on the powerful side of producers but also and mainly I think that the perfect type of package for Liongates risk wise. Similar to God of Egypt, just big enough, with just enough name recognition in a genre that sell well oversea for them to be able to almost finance all of it with International pre-sales and partners, not necessarily making much if it succeed with that level of risk sharing but not loosing much of anything if it fail while keeping room to make money on the sequels in the long shot possibility of it succeeding, a good Robin Hood movie could have work.
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Antlers | Fox Searchlight | October 29, 2021
Barnack replied to That One Girl's topic in Box Office Discussion
I don't know, if he is current rating has a director with all is movie are good enough to be in the green on metacritic but that while he deliver very good acting performance with a good start is movies do not sustain themselve all the way through story/energy wise to get to the next level, that feel accurate to me. -
I can see this going over 35m and do bigger than I feel pretty run for STX even, her 4 million budget 10% on RT Boys Next Door openned quite well and Segal went over 100m 5 movie in a row before Grudge Match, star driven comedy box office (and the budget they get) is not what it was during that run obviously but still. But that was Blum-Universal with an really impressive track record, STX went over 100m once in their existence with Bad Mom phenomenon and without any co-star to help doing 100m would be quite the feat.
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Looking at this: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/theaterdrops.htm Look possible, In the heart of the see had a similar 68% second weekend drop and theater count not that much bigger at 3,100 and a bigger 3.5m instead of 2.5m second weekend, lost 2,418 of them it's third weekend on the very crowded Christmas. Thankgivins is not Christmas loaded, so could be less severe but 2,000 seem possible. Live by night lost 2,659 theater from a 1.7m weeekend, $609 PTA, Spider Web $854 PTA isn't that much higher.
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It can be hard to distinguish between feeling good about the movie qualities or disliking the early tracking number they got and having a nothing to loose mentality that set in for the early review embargo/early screening affairs. Same goes for little previews and very late embargo lift, sometime it is a studio just really liking the tracking numbers and not needing any help/reason to take any chance, like IT last year.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Barnack replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Max Landis script have a reputation to be really really fun to read (they are made in mind to be fun to read for them to sales) and being a bit deceptive that way it probably looked like a lot of fun on the pages, Radcliffe signed on and he certainly does not need any money. Director of Lucky number sleven and the Sherlock series, I imagine he could been of somewhat average profil for UK actors like them. John Davis the producer is a really big name, and we need to put ourself back in 2012-2013 when he and Landis just had Chronicle massive success when the cast joined that project, not using hindsight on the future track record of their projects result. -
Like you say barely: Clinton vs Trump: Prediction: 48.5% vs 44.9% Actual : 48.2% vs 46.1% Overrated Clinton support by 0.3 point and underestimated Trump by 1.2 point and those were result well in marge of the margin of error and in the previous week predictions. But that an trivially, one experience is only about the unsilent (thus why you know what they think), only well made and active poll that go out of their way to contact thousand of random people can by definition give some hindsight what people that never express themselve about a subject think about it.
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Depends of the bomb definition obviously but it is probably one of those: Solo Nutcracker Wrinkle in time Depending on the deal Mowgli not even getting a release With some other contender on the way. The sister brother for example is still under 10m at the box office with a similar budget to girl with a dragoon tattoo, not the same marketing spent obviously but still and we could find a bunch of 20-50m movie doing not much this year, Hunter Killer, Hurricane Heist (15.6m on a 35 million budget). Papillion did really little, not sure about the budget but location period shoot are rarely cheap. Kin the James Franco/Zoe Kravitz/Quaid/Coon/Michael B. Jordan movie (bombed so much many will have no idea what it is), 10m on a 30m budget. Girls with a dragoon tattoo will be quite middle of the road, bad for a franchise movie but probably above average for a 20-60m budget range flop.
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And if that graph is true: That 2012-2015 growth was quite China dependent, the International - China in 2015 smaller than in 2012 (maybe that exchange rate dependent, they become quite harsher fall 2014 if I remember correctly), specially compared to that international explosion between early 2000 and 2012.