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Barnack

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Everything posted by Barnack

  1. Nielsen is by person with a sound capturing device on them I think (like Shazam for tv content), while samba look the pixel on a tv to see what is played and is not a by person metric. Samba tend to be for example x millions US household watched Y content not person: It was more between 5.5m to 9m people, I would imagine. It say here on HBO max, but I imagine if they are looking at the screen pixel to reconise content it was on all platform.
  2. Could it be Wonder Woman holiday release (talk of around 15M views at the time), depending of what they call weekend in that case ? https://variety.com/2021/digital/news/wonder-woman-1984-hbo-max-nielsen-top-10-1234895616/ Significantly bigger movie with less theater open on Holiday.
  3. That tend to be false for every Marvel movie imo, they tend to have many more things going for them, from the genre (super heroes, action, comedy), the giant promotion and budget that goes into impressive trailers. Guardian of the Galaxy did not had just the fact it was branded has a Marvel entry going for it, same for Black Panther, Doctor Strange, etc..., not as popular without it is significantly different than they would be nothing without it. How much more than being just an MCU entry change title by title, even for new entry that do not have the obvious case of being a sequel of a popular movie also going for them, that why the OW can vary from 50M to 200M for them, even between first MCU entry.
  4. Not sure if true but apparently an employee messed up some form that made it free for TV station to play It's a wonderful life for a very long time, so everyone was playing it all the time and that helped to build an holiday tradition of watching it. It’s a Wonderful Life entered the public domain by accident. In 1946, when the movie was filmed, U.S. copyright protection lasted 28 years and could be renewed for another 28 years by filing some paperwork and paying a nominal fee. However, Republic Pictures, the original copyright owner and producer of Wonderful Life, neglected to renew the 1946 copyright in 1974. So, the film entered the public domain. Though a box office flop on release, it became immensely popular on television thanks to repeated showings: Stations programmed it heavily during the holidays, paying no royalties to its producers, and more than 100 distributors sold the movie on tape. Box office flop is a bit harsh, but the small loss was terrible on Kapra, is indie production house that tried to do thing independant style of the majors and a way to avoid the giant after war tax rates (that was made of 3 powerful director joined force and were supposed to make 9 movies) did not survive and he was apparently never the same after. https://web.archive.org/web/20071114193833/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,793760,00.html
  5. Like amazon in the recent past that less and less the case, should be positive cash flow by 2022: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/19/netflix-says-cash-flow-positive-after-2021-no-more-external-financing.html A large part of Netflix is not movies but TV: Original most watched in 2020, in minutes: "Ozark" — 30.5 billion "Lucifer" — 18.97 billion "The Crown" — 16.27 billion "Tiger King: Murder, Mayhem and Madness" — 15.6 billion "The Mandalorian" — 14.5 billion (Disney Plus) "The Umbrella Academy" — 13.47 billion "Great British Baking Show" — 13.28 billion "Boss Baby: Back in Business" — 12.6 billion "Longmire" — 11.38 billion "You" — 10.96 billion Not original: "The Office" — 57.1 billion "Grey's Anatomy" — 39.4 billion "Criminal Minds" — 35.4 billion "NCIS" — 28.1 billion "Schitt's Creek" — 23.78 billion "Supernatural" — 20.3 billion "Shameless" — 18.2 billion "New Girl" — 14.5 billion "The Blacklist" — 14.48 billion "The Vampire Diaries" — 14.09 billion And already fully monetized in the past content is still most of their content being watched, it is still unproven if it would work if they had to make all of the content from scratch or if the big movies make sense on their model. Having over 200m subscriber help a lot has well, there is a limited of paying platform that will be able to reach such figure and it needed a decade of debt, a mature studio will not necessarily want such road.
  6. Not sure how much I would agree, here you could be right has the industry was becoming more and more opaque revenue wise with a growing part of them being movie +TV combined and almost impossible to split between the 2 (say Netflix revenues and now D+HBO monthly revenues) But if we look at the last movies release pre-covid excluside the Marvel-StarWars-Disney live action remake stuff, all those movies had full future windows going on for them: Jumanji: 800m Knive out: 313m Bombshell: 61m Richard Jewell: 43m Ford V Ferrari: 224m Parasite: 254m Jojo Rabbit: 87m Joker: 1.07B Midway: 127m Once upon a time.... in Hollywood: 377m 1917: 366m Little woman: 219m Bad Boys for life: 424m The Gentlemen: 114m DoLittle: 251m It was working a lot of the time, The Gentleman was Guy Ritchie highest non adjusted box office outside the giant franchise affair of all is career, an market where the Gentleman can go over 110m and the FVF, Little woman above 200m and the Knive Out, 1917 and Tarantino over 300m was not particularly shrinking versus say 2016 imo, maybe it stagnated after the WW explosion from new market around 2010-2015. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1194522/box-office-home-and-mobile-video-entertainment-revenue-worldwide/ 2019 MPAA report: https://www.mpa-apac.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/MPA-THEME-2019.pdf First time global industry revenues went above $100b If we look at studio, movie division revenues (WB had that At&t transition of how they calculate thing in 2018) year Universal Sony (in millions of yen) Liongates Warner brothers 2010 2011 2012 446 2329.1 2013 5.16B 422 2182.9 6119 2014 5.01B 434 1820.1 5839 2015 7.28B 447 1677.4 5143 2016 6.36B 409 1920.6 5612 2017 7.66B 449 1822.1 6038 2018 7.15B 436 $1,464.40 4002 2019 6.49B 475 1670.9 5978 2020 5.27B 271 $1,081.10 It was not peak DVD era, with an non opaque industry revenues of over $80B, but the post dvd shrinking was stable and done I feel like.
  7. The announcement was quite different. Didn't Netflix bought Sony first TV windows, Disney the second one ? And both are only for one market I think. The agreement comes on the heels of Sony’s output deal with Netflix for titles in the lucrative post-theatrical release Pay 1 window. The Disney deal covers subsequent TV windows, meaning that the titles will land on Netflix first, about nine months after the start of a film’s theatrical run https://variety.com/2021/film/news/netflix-sony-pictures-pay-1-starz-output-1234946413/ Netflix already had a deal with Sony Pictures for all of its animated releases. Starting with next year’s slate, all movies from the various film banners on the Culver City lot — including Columbia Pictures, Sony Pictures Classics, Screen Gems and TriStar Pictures — will stream exclusively on Netflix after their theatrical and home entertainment releases. That promises to bring to Netflix future installments of the “Spiderman,” “Venom” and “Jumanji” franchises, among others. The pay 1 window usually begins about nine months after a film’s theatrical release, although that timetable may have been sped up for Netflix. Did more detail emerge, that Netflix didn't really got all of Sony slate (if they option them, they can obviously skip movies) ?
  8. Could be, but I am not sure what the precedent that would matter be, is a 1,500 screens release meant an exclusive theatrical run on a contract signed before 2020 ? Well maybe considering that question could be a recurrent one in the next months, but long term it is not like there will ever be a contract that do not specify it explicitly.
  9. Seem like there was talks before release: We treated Disney Premier Access (revenue) like box office for the purposes of the bonus requirements in the contract. Would be interesting to see if Johansson had home ent and TV point and if they count D+ revenues in them and just put the amount twice for pure threshold counting, the way it seem to be phrase seem to be a x every y millions WW is achieved more than point on a CB0
  10. That some title that came to mind roughly ranked: True Grit (the 2010 Coens version) Django Unchained There will be blood Hateful Eight The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford No country for Old men Bone Tomahawk The Searchers (1956) Wind River Hostiles (2018) Tombstone (1993) Unforgiven The Quick and the Dead (1995) The Wild Bunch (1969) Maverick Of Mice and Men (1992) Hell or High Water (II) (2016) Legends of the Fall (1994) The rover The Revenant (2015)
  11. On the assigned franchise role probably (i.e. it would probably be costly on the BO to recast Thor) or when you are Dwayne Johnson, Tarantino-Nolan level. For example if one would try to find the Damon less Bourne movie entry: Jul 29, 2016 Jason Bourne $120,000,000 $59,215,365 $162,192,920 $416,168,316 Aug 10, 2012 The Bourne Legacy $125,000,000 $38,142,825 $113,203,870 $280,355,920 Aug 3, 2007 The Bourne Ultimatum $130,000,000 $69,283,690 $227,471,070 $444,043,396 Jul 23, 2004 The Bourne Supremacy $85,000,000 $52,521,865 $176,087,450 $311,001,124 Jun 14, 2002 The Bourne Identity $60,000,000 $27,118,640 $121,468,960 $214,357,371 If Cruise was not in the next MI or Top Gun, they would be a different affair, same goes if Bad Boys had been recast and not by Johnson-Kevin Hart.
  12. Is that speculation ? Feige-Marvel did seem to have giant power versus juggernaut of powerful entity like Pixar or even Disney Animation since Chapek came in, with all is project getting a very nice push back release (all 3 of them) wise versus them. With 2015 John Lasseter it would have been quite different. If we go by how well the press, talent and studio treated him during the coverage of the latest crisis, he seem to have giant power over everyone, I am pretty sure he got is giant gross points coming in.
  13. That maybe a good starting point. JL opening day dropped from BvS by 53% the OW by 44%, we could say that half the buzz was lost between the 2, despite the movie adding an extremely popular at the time Wonder Woman and Jason Mamoa has Aquaman and being bigger. SS got a bit smaller instead of bigger with Smith and The Joker leaving, a similar 50% type of drop would have been optimistic considering, that put it down to 66 million, the pandemy resurgence + free on HBO max would easily remove a natural 40% I imagine to that (i.e. it should open at 40M to be a JL type disappointment, the talk of it going even under that make it particularly underperformer with the reviews). I thought SS was more liked among the general audience than the reviews, but that could have been wrong, that said I am still a bit baffle by the mind of so many movie critics that judged that the movie Suicide Squad was a well crafted movie (or that still achieved to accomplish is mission despite not being one) and worthy of a positive review, they must have a great time at the movies every week. BvS at least had Zimmer studio and Junkie XL collaboration, the Snyder cinematography and strong visual.
  14. That a bit of a misleading spectacular coverage of the rules changes, it has been a very long time since they could have accepted something has big than a trip https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/general-news/golden-globes-voters-told-return-gift-tom-ford-fragrance-954610/ But the HFPA now has a rule in place that forbids its members from accepting gifts with a market value of more than $95. Since the 201x, they can maybe accept a drink, a dvd box set of the movie or a movie poster, but nothing of any value, they return watch, perfume, special made cake and so on. The price limit make studio able to send stuff that make sense, like photo album of the movie and posters (like they do to SAG members and other voting body for your consideration package) but nothing more.
  15. That seem like a list of things to put on the poster of the movie !, one big issue of the first suicide squad was the complete absence of not even evil characters, but there were not even just bad people in the squad at all.
  16. 77 on MC: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-suicide-squad/critic-reviews Is quite high I think, would it stay like that (a Logan level), something like 4 Marvel movie ever made would be higher and 4 DC movie ever made I think. That above is first Guardian of the Galaxy, Batman Begins and Wonder Woman, which seem to put it at the moment a step above the usual well received SH movie.
  17. It is a bit unfair with the current situation obviously, but is there any post 1990 not made for TV sequel that did not do more than half the first weekend of the previous entry in their total run ?
  18. Considering that include almost all smarttv sellers, would it not be most people ? I think that around 90% opted in (when it is asked at all) on the samba service on their smartTV. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/05/business/media/tv-viewer-tracking.html
  19. And I feel like it peak everytime the model change, Tom Cruise Vs Paramount to access Dvd money, Jackson vs Warner and Arnold on Terminator to put everything in the money pot. Under the new model constructed how will the talent access the $5 a month user gained by the fact the movies play is not obvious at all and how the market will be able to keep an honest market value to use has a reference if all the studios stop to shop their product around and distribute them themselve.
  20. Disney never released their OW revenue in the past nor now, that I can remember and always made number about movie has little public has they can usually (would be happy to even see what a slate did, I do not remember even doing that). Not so long ago 75% of their movie revenues was from DVD and TV, they kept all of that well hidden.
  21. You can do the same experience with a recast and release that movie, it is obviously hard for studio to isolate the value of not recasting establish actor in a role, but there is one and they are cashing on it. And many powerful IPs release do fail, nailing the casting has been a force of the MCU in general, in some case it is more obvious, imagine if the lead of the Joker do not deliver, that movie was for sure helped by the giant IP, but maybe do not make 50% of what it did with an easy replacement lead actor, even if it does not make 10% of what it did without the IP, thus making producer ready to share the profit with a Phoenix type.
  22. Johnson already had the past experience of a movie in which he had 30% of the profit deal going to Netflix (summer 2019), maybe he updated is ongoing project at the same time, but that seem quite speculative at the moment to say that they seem to have had a deal, source ?
  23. If you are talking about a movie like Old having a 60% drop, that would be in line with what a C+ cinemascore -52% audience score on RT Shyamalan release would have done, no ? The Village: -68% Lady in the water: -60% The Happening -66% After earth -61% Devil: -46% last airbender: -59% The visit -55% Split -36% (is well received affair) Glass -53% Is average the last 15 year's second weekend drop is like -56%
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