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Barnack

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Everything posted by Barnack

  1. That not uncommon, they often tried when possible to not use high profil Japanese products in the past : https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-boycott-hurts-japan-2012-9
  2. Putting off the revenues away in the futures hurt your annual ROI on something has well, but for interest cost I wonder if an entity like Disney on a project like a Marvel movie is the same than for most projects. Last big 11 billion of debt Disney rised was only between 1.75%-3.8% I think, their interest are probably far from a Lionsgate loan/line of credit for a non-franchise movie, but I could be wrong just speculative. the risk is quite low versus an usual movie.
  3. Will probably be able to know before the end of the year, if that company is the Disney shell company ( ROMANOFF PRODUCTIONS UK LIMITED, the name, the moment of registration in 2017 when the first writers got hired for that projects, the moment actual big money start being spent in 2019, seem to all match really well) https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/10766358/filing-history If it is that one by mid november 2019 they had spent 142 millions pound using the 2019 average exchange rate that around 181 millions, with what seem like a generous 27 millions pound tax credit going on. The movie was supposed to be a may 2020 release so I imagine principal photography has originally planed was done by that date, it wrapped october 2019, ending up around that 175-225 after the rebate does make sense, with a 6 month of post production still to go (and maybe they used the extra time to do even more, but at the same time less need to pay for crush time and overtime when you have a long window).
  4. 2001: Lords of the Rings 2002: Lords of the Rings 2 2003: Lords of the Rings 3 2004: The Fockers (279M) 2005: Narnia (291M) 2006: Night at the Museum (250M) 2007: I am legend (256M) Those were all bigger or similar (the 3 Hobbits being the same franchise) to the December release that followed Avatar until Star Wars no ?
  5. This is a bit of reverse reasoning because of precedent, normally the question why does a studio respect the theatrical windows ? Disney probably sense they will be so down by july that for a Marvel movie most will be ready to accept almost anything if you give them 50% of the ticket sales if popcorns sales are being reinstated again in most market, here vaccination should be done by mid june and I imagine that will be somewhat common.
  6. I am not sure if it is something killing them possible (I am behind a vpn), but I clicked on 2 of them, didn't saw ads, those videos are publicity for a Disney product, adding ads before and in them could be counter their goals, do you see any ?
  7. I feel like you need to have ads enabled for that, something they I imagine rarely not do for their ads they put on youtube (and they probably pay to boost those video signals), my guess would be a net marketing expense for them.
  8. Japan as well was much bigger. But that was with 0 competition going on. China, South Korea are big markets to get vastly behind. Around 75% of the Intl difference from those 2 I think.
  9. So significantly more than the biggest Kong movie for sure ? 652m is a lot for a movie with a 70% RT score and 76% audience score (could just be that it got harder for the Nolan online gang to boost the score on RT), but IMDB scoring difference is similar as well.
  10. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=%2Fg%2F11h193b_c5,%2Fg%2F11fd7dbn8v (that exclude important place like China), but GvK pre-release google trend numbers are in a completely different tier than Tenet it look to me. Tenet had a very hard release with many push, date change, with no market and was a movie that could have an hard time to make close to a 500-600m Kong movies.
  11. I am sure the ABC executives in charge and the team dedicated to the ceremony with their own numbers on the line (bonus, job prospect and so on) feel less judgement from them, but I am not sure how relevant it is to them. I would imagine, but taking measure to try to achieve to create some aura, prestige and production value but not having terrible quality zoom moment and some crowd reaction during the presentation is one thing they can try to do. What would you do ?
  12. If you would have paid $75 millions for the rights to show this, you would also be desperately trying to make the best of it and would have an hard time throwing away that amount of money.
  13. This would be purely speculation of my part but if you have less time to capture an image do you need to up the light intensity ? And other factor would be blurring algorithm (some things are not natural to not appear to be blurry that appear clear when filmed in high frame rate and it become an artistic choice if you want people to see it and feel strange about it a bit like in video games).
  14. It will for sure change after the current deal end in 2028 (because I doubt they will get offered a good deal like the one they have). But it is easy to understand why the academy do not break their current deal to shift for free content online, getting 75 millions a year is looking better and better. Not sure if it will survive the shift.
  15. I guess it was streaming on Disney Star before and that shifted to D+ ?
  16. Deadline budget and talent compensation estimate are really rough estimate, Raya probably didn't cost more than a 5 year's project with huge rush to fix issues starring Dwayne Johnson movie like Moana, but Moana can easily have been over 200M. Some ways to have some feel of those movie budget is look at the list of Disney own incorporation using the address they use for most of them: https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/search/companies?q=3+Queen+Caroline+Street,+Hammersmith,+London,+United+Kingdom,+W6+9PE+59111+-+Motion+picture+production+activities&page=2 Using the date (relative to when the project would have been greenlight) and the name (they tend to make some reference in a geek way, a Dumbo character, the address of a character or be very direct). for example something called Magic Lamp Production created in 2015: https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/09359156/filing-history?page=2 Could be the Aladdin movie (Ritchie was announced late 2016 has the director) Medici: https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/09227447 Is probably the Dumbo remake. Pym particles: https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/07503881 AntMan, the spending pattern also match the long development phase then the production then the participation bonus after release. It can give you a feel and more directly if we wanted to find Raya we probably could. Has for China and Japan cost of release, historically China was almost free in exchange of that low return to make it an interesting overall package, i.e studio were getting around 21% of the gross of a Chinese theatrical release which is exactly in line even above their international average, while Japan was almost like the domestic market, near 50% of the gross doing to the studio, large after theatrical market but costly release. I have no idea what the releasing cost of a D+, theatrical split is, so I cannot comment to much but I feel that 90M you advanced could be in the good ballpark.
  17. Maybe they are aiming a being shorted because of how bad of an idea it sound and after becoming the next meme stock ?
  18. Not exactly sure what you mean, the value of a show that start at 6:00 am IST must be extremely low.
  19. I think your calculation is a bit off, 100-150 is a limited range for a giant disney production and 150 WW P&A seem like a lot, movie release in China are among the cheapest in the world I think, that why the net return is pretty much similar to the others market, despite a 25% of the gross deal.
  20. ABC pay 75 millions a year for the right to stream it, maybe more people would watch if you stream if for free worldwide on youtube and letting go to tv deals you made in every country, but does it translate in nearly has much money ? Something that is all about prestige and history (almost all of it by now, with how large of a voting body with almost 0 curating it is now) turned into a free youtube stream, it is an hard act to balance.
  21. Make sense, the Globes tv side was less hit than the movie side and the host comedian Poehler-Tina Fey are a bigger part of the show than the Oscar hosting.
  22. Not sure about the upscale jobs I imagine there will be one and maybe not via new renders at higher resolution (a lot of Avatar isn't filmed after all and could be re-rendered at higher resolution ?), but he seem more excited in that interview and only talking about high dynamic range and the possibility to experience it with HDR on newer projector with correct light level. Now all of that will not have 25% of the interest than 3D remastering had the few year of 3d craze imo, at least in most market. But one of the very few movie that could have any form of excitement surrounding a remaster re-release would be Avatar during the marketing campaign of Avatar 2.
  23. There was an old rules that barred studio from buying ads during the ceremony to remove some possible views of them being influenced by the money. But it changed in the late 2000s, studio can buy 1 ads (and just one by ads segment) for non nominated movie and it depend maybe on the market (and-or my memory being faulty) but I remember seeing a lot of them over the years. And it need to be a new never aired trailer, if rules didn't change since.
  24. I was going to say I think it is a good example of a case where it is not. But: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sony-film-tv-profits-leap-061326924.html https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2021/02/03/ps5-is-being-sold-at-a-loss-yet-sony-is-posting-record-profits/?sh=7c49c8955fd2
  25. I am not sure about Australia, but that could part of the reason, LORT, HP, Pirates could have been has big if not bigger in your market. (let alone inflation and other factor, where they that much bigger in Australia ?)
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