Barnack

Well for the China market, so much of the sales is pre-sales (isn't getting close to 80% online ticket there ?) that talking about pre-sales is close to be talking about actual numbers.

Not that much apples vs oranges on the domestic market, imo. Batman and Jokers were pretty big and most of the avengers character not that much. There is a reason they finished really close to each other in ticket sales.

90 million is probably a prediction before the end of the year, it is a December 25 release. S90m between december 25 and december 31 would still be predicting above 190m for that movie I think.

That is just because you are assuming electricity will be available mostly everywhere surrounding their release.

Pre-sales was quite heavy on the special screen for the avengers: http://screencrush.com/avengers-ticket-sales/ 56 percent of sales are for 3D showings, while 37 percent of the tickets purchased are for IMAX 3D. Not that different than the opening weekend apparently: If so, that "best debut ever" honor would still belong to Disney and Marvel’s “The Avengers,” which bowed to $207 million in the first week in May. About 52 percent of that total came from premium –aka more expensive– 3D tickets. https://www.thewrap.com/dark-knight-rises-vs-avengers-lack-3d-will-cut-batman-box-office-48026/ 2012 was still in the post 2009 3D craze, even if the Avengers was not particularly seen as one the format was really popular in general.

Little update on home videos sales, everything trending as expected, maybe except electronic sell through going up despite the popularity of streaming package, EST has I think the biggest margin of profitability for a studio, in the past they were making as much as 16-18$ net by movie sold that way (you sell a movie digitally to someone, not much expense involved there) : http://deadline.com/2018/01/u-s-home-entertainment-spending-rises-to-20-5-billion-1202239252/ 5% growth can be misleading, because one the most profitable margin wise that was dvd sales continued to go down for the much less profitable for studios amazon/netflix type streaming growth. Home entertainment spending is still almost the double than box office, so not bad (and that does not include TV), but for big new release I am not sure that it will be the case for the studios revenues like it was in the past.

Even adjusted not many of them above Avengers Empire Strike Back/Return of the Jedi, Dark Knight and Thunderball were close and Shrek 2 in the same ball park, pretty much it.

I imagine that was exactly is point, to not forget how much pre-sales market can change (specially when looking in a company in particular and not the whole market, how many theater a particular sellers supports can have changed) What recents movies it is not beating and pretty only recent movie it is beating are good indicator, going back to civil war could be very misleading.

With is A cinemascore I do not think it is a case of GA not agreeing with critics, GA seem to love that movie when they see it, that the challenge people do not but ticket for a movie they like or not a ticket for movie they do not like, they pay before seeing the movie. It is still more about genre/trailer/marketing then being good or not.

Regardless of if she thought it could be a nice redemption because the story take her side quite a bit, filmmaker for public figure do not need to have the person ok, it is just nice for them to have it promotion wise and a collaborator/source of details. https://www.moviemaker.com/archives/series/cinema_law/cinema-law-do-i-need-to-obtain-life-rights/ If you have the chance to be asked and to get money for it, it is nice because they really do not need to ask anyone if they are using public knowledge facts. Imagine you could not make a documentary about Madoff, David Miscavige or Spotlight without the people involved permissions.

I also preferred it on rewatch (even if it was 2D tv versus 3d theater)

kahn said in a interview that they often ask themselves: how many millions more at the box office are we talking about if we do/correct this. Post 1941, he has been an extremely responsible filmmaker. Saving Private Ryan made with a 70m budget (105.27m adjusted), starring a peak Tom Hanks being an obvious example of that. Or maybe even more, The Lost World the sequel to what was the biggest movie of all time worldwide, with big effects, at around that same price.

First time feature director on a movie like this, the trailer, the budget cut for that genre, project that sound like a cash grab move, mediocre or less is a reasonable expectation.

How it is evaluated if a market is interested in that movie by people who jobs it is, is greatly influenced by comparable and precedent performance. That where the self fulfilling prophecy theory come from, the previous black movie story or mostly black cast did not got a big push internationally and did not do well, when looking at the next one potential they are influenced by the previous one, see a low performance, evaluate low potential for the new release, do not give it a big push, in a circular way like this. How much it is true, how much it is false it is hard to say. Creed for example had by far the worst intl ratio of the Rocky series since box office mojo track them despite being the latest release with oversea that got much bigger and I think got release in pretty much all the same market than the previous entry, so it could have more to it than just distributor fear to explain that and they could be partially right, but a big part of the phenomenon is probably due to marketing budget.

And Spacey behavior was quite well known I think, including some questionable on sets. It is possible Walbergh identified that from the financier point of view like a purely maximization of their money, when they agreed to those re-shoot and maximised their return. But it is possible that it was a production company put into a strange corner by a powerful director and that feared to loose a lot on this release, to be blackmailed by someone that was just strategically using a close in is contract is still sounding unethical business behavior, the kind that would make people stop working with him in the future.

That may be true (and certainly is in good part true), but that mostly the point when talking about making prediction at the BO, that this movie will not get a wide world release with a good intl P&A, thus people not expecting anything close to say Atomic Blonde intl performance. It is predicting/expecting the usual self-fulling prophecy to occur for that movie, not saying that if it would have been good and getting the same release than Atomic blonde that it could not also have got close to 50M intl. Also those movies often have part of the emotional punch that is base on regional reality even if they are in genre that can do well (say Get Out in horror or Hidden Figures in a total crowdpleaser dramedy)

It is really right on the middle between the 2 imo. A flop is loosing a large amount of money relative to the budget a big success if often making a around 14% ROI depending of the project, loosing a 15% or less is a bit the middle of the road between the 2 from my point of view.

I fully expect the movie to do very little OS, I said that because historically when mid budget or up achieve to make close to 100% of their budget + bonus or more in the domestic market alone, they do not loose real money. Looking at the most recent Screen gems release with an around 30m domestic BO that leaked is accounting details, Deliver Us From evil, that movie made 48m in revenues from the domestic market alone with a 32m dbo. If PM do something similar and achieve to generate a 5 to 8M profit from oversea in a worst case scenario, it could pay for most of that 30m production and say 25-30m total domestic release cost (theatrical and home Video). Not a big enough lost to be called a flop imo.

I really do not think it is specific to the US either.

Deadline article mentioned they heard rumors that the real budget was more around 30M. Even then if it reach 30M domestic, it is not a flop at all, but if the legs are really bad and that budget rumors true.... Will probably have some idea when the state of Massachusetts will release it's 2017 tax credit transparency report, the filming location being all there according to imdb.

That make 2 "excuse" americans do not have, it does seem that Americans need their animated stuff to be Minions/Secret Life of Pets colorful and very close to the proven and known formula look wise (pixar/dreamworks), anything else like Kubo and the 2 strings will have an hard time.

Story turned around quickly on that one, not too surprising considering the extremely embargo, latest estimate not only down to a 11m 4 days but rumors of a 30M budget...

I think at one point it was going to be pretty much Italy, Germany, Russia against England almost all alone in term of big power. Would have been really easy to surrender/accept to stay out of it and yes there is some legend of England of that moment and is leadership I think. The movie was really cinematic, but after a while, I was waiting for the build up to the speech to end to have it, it is hard to play with some of the "suspense" for such an historical known moment, it is competent all around but not reaching any greatness.

There is some possible windows I guess and some case, but I would imagine the vast majority of the pass holders do not have young kids.