Barnack

This is one of the strangest think I ever heard, what ? And Flatliners was a studio movie ? Sure I did read about that, but all the time I must have the same reaction of surprise that it was not an indie / complex financing distributed by Liongates or something like that.

It is not all clear, but it took probably much more than Hollywood, for one a bit like Fox News, Trump, etc... The Weinstein CO and Harvey are not Hollywood, they are New-York (always have been outside in California a little bit, their office TWC and Dimension are still in NY), it took the NY cops, NY press, NY District attorney, lawyers, accountants, many movie industry like France, Italy, etc... They story was made by the times now for many reason, and is reduced power reducing the industry covering for him could be one part, but I think the biggest part is how the media and the audience changed on that question. Just look how the media (and the audience) handled the latest leak on HBO and the celebrities phone versus those 2/3 year's ago, they did it in a much more responsible way's (didn't give them much coverage when any, knowing those exist only because media give them a platform), it could be in general having more money because of Trump era revenues, but also a more conscious how to treat sex crime. Weinstein got away because no one talked on records, they didn't not for many reason and a big one was fear, fear to never work again and also I would imagine fear of the public opinion court, that it would turn out to be treated has an actress that slept with a director, that it didn't turnet out as well as she thought and now is angry, and that fear of that public reception involved society in general (and how those casting couch rumors were framed by it), not just Hollywood (that is prevalent in most movie industry, not there in particular and I imaigne many others were the stake are big with a big difference between some level with few people in power having keys to those level, talent is not that objective, omerta nature, mostly men, etc...)

Yes, depending of the bank of comparable used and the genre you put it in, similar tracking will give you a different estimate for the OW. Historically those were the variable tracked (by quadrant) and used to built an estimate Awareness: Unaided (they talk about the movie without you asking them/suggesting it) aided: If you mention a movie, they know/remember what you are talking about Interests among aware: Definitely going to see probably going to see Definitely not going to see Choice First choice Top 3 The weight giving to each variable change depending of the how far from release you are and which variable are used change from genre (for animated movies the parent just need to know they exist mostly, know what they are exactly, for Blade Runner you need unaided awareness, that something only people know what it is will likely see and not the family deciding they are going to theater today because it rain, and so on). From those variable there is not a good tracking answer, there is a different model giving different values.

With all the reshoot and long post-production hell it probably shifted quit a bit, but it was a planned 80m movie initially. https://fastlane.louisianaeconomicdevelopment.com/Film/FilmSearchDetails.aspx?ProjNum=6LVzcOz4Ra2K%2fpSNqIcUhg%3d%3d Estimated Total Budget: $81,927,423 That sheet is unusual (like I said it probably moved quite a bit), the line Estimated Louisiana Expenditures: $81,927,423 Make little sense with the total budget, it is usually a smaller amount. With a 23m tax credit, so I imagine they planned an around 60m net movie.

Maybe now would be particularly a good time that we stop referring to the entertainment reporters has journalists, very few are even close to work like the word imply.

This, the only angle were it could be "calculated promotion" would be for growing/keeping their giant social media audience by becoming Kardasian type viral reality show I would imagine. It can help them, but not really a movie. But it could just be irrational feuding.

19% for the 13-17 is not bad at all. The over 25 will always be bigger than the 13-17, (the 25-39 alone should be twice as big in general) In 2016 ticket sold by age group: 02-11: 11% 12-17: 13% 18-24: 16% 25-39: 24% 40-49: 11% 50-59: 12% 60+: 13% The 60+ tend to be bigger than the 12-17, let alone all the 25+ (60% of the ticket sold) 19% for that demo would be 50% more than the average movie, and maybe a bigger number than for Guardian of the Galaxy 2.

Over 35 and over 50 would be more useful here, but Girl on a train was 89% over 25 last year, 81% for Blade Runner this year. And isn't the older the better for movie legs ? The over 50 audience goes in theater in average 16 days after release I think and really do not rush the first weekend like youngers one.

We will see the next study on it (RT relevance) I'm curious if it could one day show some sign of strong effect outside a very narrow (Baby Driver type of movie) niche, has it become a bigger phenomenon, but is relevance is a bit still up in the air for a large spectrum of the movies.

The big ones has over 1 million subscriber and would still be relevant without RT I imagine (few critics reach more people after all now), but some like Stuckman are: Chris Stuckmann's reviews (from any publication) always count toward the Tomatometer because this critic is a Tomatometer-approved critic.

Planet money did an episode on the Blumhouse model speaking to exec and the director of The Boy Next Door, that did explain the model a little bit, he explained that the International distributor gave him the money for free for is reshoot because Blumhouse would not even spent 300k more than the planned budget and how your movie can be buried hard if it does not test well. http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017/03/29/521950337/episode-650-the-genius-behind-get-out

If L's mean lost, it is the complete opposite, Blumhouse model is made on having many lost by design. They do a lot of movies until one happen to work, never go above the pre-determined amount and if the movie does not work, they take the L's, do not try to fix it with reshoot or buying a first weekend with marketing (they spent on those that play well in test screening). Lot of their movie's did 0 to 12 million worldwide in 2016/2017 Martyrs, Visions, Hush, The Darkness, In a valley of violence, Keeping hours, Incarnate, Alive and kicking, Lowriders, etc... we just do not remember any of those . But their losts are low enough that the winners (Get Out, split, Ouija, Purges, The Gift, Paranomrals, Insidious, Unfriended, Boys next doors and so on) more than cover for their lost that are expected to happen and not seen has problems but the design. And their lost are low enough because they embrace them and do not hate the lost, no ego here, no press pressure for any success either ever, no press when they fail, they simply bury them and pass to the next project.

Oh..... my, Blumhouse did it again.... https://fastlane.louisianaeconomicdevelopment.com/Film/FilmSearchDetails.aspx?ProjNum=fvBDW0TLfiVle4lARZFbhg%3d%3d Gross budget of only 6.2m, with 80% of that spent in bottom line expense in the tax credit generous Louisiana !

If it does 130m in current, we could compare with arrival Arrival did 76.11 oversea minus China/Japan/South korea. And 26.724 in those. So if follow that pattern, 130/76.11 * 26.724 = 45.645 in those 3, 175m oversea + 85m dom = 260m WW Now Blade Runner is maybe more of a cult film in Japan and I imagine it could overperform vs Arrival in China and do say 65 to reach 275m, who knows with China really and some Sci-fi did extremely well in SK..

One exception is disney remake of classics that are doing ridiculously well. It could play bigger considerably bigger than cinderella and closer to Jungle book imo a bit like the others live action remake of more popular animated hits, I'm not sure the animated part is important, the remake of Disney popular classic maybe is (they just happen to be mostly animated). Poppins popularity is still extremely strong according to home video sales: http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Mary-Poppins#tab=video-sales On the last 2 volt release (45th and 50th anniversary edition), it went on to sales almost 150m in the united states alone according to the-numbers, without the help of a movie remake project. And still selling strong since then, getting closer to 200m For comparable to the 180m sales of Marry Poppins on dvd/bluray 1991 beauty and the beast: 212 million (after the big boost of this year remake release was at 150m before that, like Poppins) 1967 Jungle book: 294 million (after the movie remake boost was at 277m before that) 1950 cinderella: 95m (after the help of the remake) Poppins ranking in home video sales annually according to the-numbers since the last edition: 2013: 72 2014: 68 2015: 68 (5 million more in dollar than the 93 Jurassic Park that was helped by Jurassic world) 2016: 71 2017: 63 That is showing a constant interest/relevance among audience.

Because it tracked to do much higher, huge pre-sales number with a 4m Thursday night preview and is performing really well in many market (some very similar like the UK). There is also the huge budget, total absence of relevant competition and critical reception, those all point out to be reasonable to call an under 35m OW underperforming, Fury Road 45m was not that much out of reach for many and that was not that unreasonable to expect something around 40m and that number was still in play until Friday performance.

Was 2016 a bad year for WB ? Warner Bros. segment of Time warner operating income 2014: 1.159b 2015: 1.416b (+22%) 2016: 1.734b (+22%) even with a -27% drop in their video games division they augmented gross profit by 22%, WB movie/tv business side did really really well in 2016. Long list of huge profitable movies from BvS, Suicide Squad, Fantastic Beast, with good solid mid range hit like Central Intelligence, Sully, Accountant Conjuring 2, Light out, with not one big flop.

Sure, no one known how much JL will do, but BvS is not an easy movie to beat, and sequel of big box office number like those have an hard time augmenting, going over BvS would be good for JL. It is a movie in the situation that can do it and has a good chance to do it, because of the exceptional factor of a spin off from BvS, Wonder Woman doing really well, some added characther and (that is rare) a good chance of being better than the previous entry. But it is not an automatic, BvS hype was specially huge.

IF that 50m first weekend intl number hold, it is possible no ? With 3 major market still to open and doing around 120-135m in those it opened, could reach close to 200m intl. Will see if that big 50m intl openning will hold with actuals.

I also think 2 and 3 could have been in one movie, or at least (maybe not realistic) but felt that way, first movie apes become intelligent war start, second movie the war and the resolve. 3 movie for that seem like one too many, hard to distinguish 2 and 3.

Come on people, if there is something subjective is the movie look, for some BvS was some of the best looking movie for other it did look bad. Except for the very just well shooted natural shoot that will make consensus (like Tree of Life, BadLands, Thin red line, Days of heaven The new world, well Malick in general etc..) anything stylized a lot like the orange sequence will be something of a taste ( I loved it personally), the poster is not saying it was overexposed/not well light/shot, but that he didn't liked the aesthetic, I did read some that didn't like Fury Road atheistic/way action was shoot for an other example.

If that is generalized it could give some credence to the domestic audience not feeling a grim movie right now (and a studio having a hard time doing the promo here), when foreign territory perform the same has the US, those reason advanced loose all credibility, but when the difference is huge they could explain a part of that difference.

Frontloaded but that started from one of the biggest OD ever because of year's of hype and first time having those character together, a magic that maybe JL will not reproduce. 81.56m opening day was a really special start BvS started from, only the last Potter, Awaken, Ultron, Jurassic World are above that mark all being some form or close too all time opening weekend breaker.

Is the number good for a sunday preview, does recent comparable exist ?

Dawn had a nice $235,329,191 gross budget. I wonder why they reduced it that much (if those rumors are true), it did hurt the movie quite a bit and is box office performance imo. Maybe knowing that they would not have a next one in that storyline, they decided to milk it, a deal between the director to told that more grim story when at that price point. But yes if those around 150m net number are true, that ended up being once again a really nice success for that franchise with that 490m WW bo performance.