Barnack

Was it really special to do so in 1998 ? I imagine more than in the 70s, but it was not as astounding/surprising than in 2014 when Sniper did it, 1998 was still before the definitive shift toward franchise overlord always getting the yearly DOM crown that really started in 2001. I would imagine that a Spielberg movie specially with Hanks or Cruise was always expected to be a potential number on back in those days. That said I could be completely wrong, was not following any of this until recently.

In retrospect of the exchange rate drop that occurred of late august 2014, that time just before that was really not bad. X-men, Apes, Maleficiant, all doing over 700m ! T4 over 1.1b, Lucy over 400m, Godzilla nearly 100m openner, R comedy like Neighbors getting close to 275m and 22 JS doing over 330m (look how R-rated comedy did this year compared to those)... Some deception like Edge of Tomorrow and Amazing Spider Man 2, but many solid run.

If that : 4.5 million youtube views number is accurate, it does not sound really impressive for a comedy with an August 18 release and that target audience Logan Lucky is at 6.9 million views and for the current weeks it is 538k vs 118k in favor of Logan Lucky. Facebook like metric is also a bit lower than LL today, for a movie starring Jackson/Reynold and an high concept it should be winning this but LL reviews came out and not Hitman when it will that will give it some attention : http://pro.boxoffice.com/facebook/today/

That movie is not trying to reach necessarily the GA (if you get 0.7% of the population to your movie the first weekend you have a mega hit at that level) or made to make money too, it is probably supposed to be off putting, the poster and trailer seem to indicate an young woman (probably a representation of something else) being intimidated by those older "stronger faced" people and not presented has some healthy lovely relationship.

If they keep the high concept secret (or if there is none) I suspect that it will be the reaction of many it is still more a longer teaser than a trailer, it will probably only play for the very frequent movie goers (the 39 million people that goes in average 16 time a year) and not reach those those who go in theater around 4 time a year. All the marketing having been in theater in trailer playing in front of other movie, show that at least as for now they are not trying to really reach them either. But you just need to convince around 5-6% of those frequent movie goers to go in theater that weekend and for that movie to be a huge success (20m OW).

The Jungle Book is one if not the best selling title out of the Disney volt and one of the biggest movie of all time in many market (US and euro), it was extremelly popular. #32 all time domestic: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm #9 all time in France: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_des_plus_gros_succès_du_box-office_en_France 19.80 million admission in the UK is still one of the biggest ever: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_the_United_Kingdom it is often in the year best seller: http://www.the-numbers.com/home-market/dvd-sales/2007 http://www.the-numbers.com/home-market/packaged-media-sales/2014 Under what metric that the 1967 Jungle Book was not one of the most popular movie of all time, it is top 10 most popular movie ever in many market.

Star Wars 8 and Avengers 3 part 1 doing 306m would require some marketing or movie disaster imo (if there is no massive electrical failure to explain those result or something of the sort).

Big name with an relationship like Arofonsky can get in Venice/Canne (see Sean Penn last movie) because of the value they have publicity wise, red carpet and so on and keep them good friend. Toronto accept almost anything. The movie is probably very little tested (Don't think it played in front of any audience yet), they will learn a lot at the same time people will see it in those festival.

Mainly because of the director: Oscar nominations Noah: 0 Black Swan: 5 Wrestler: 2 Fountain: 0 Requiem for a dream: 1 60% of is post Pi output got Oscar nomination (even for an NC-17/unrated movie that never reached 100 theater because it did got an R-rating like Requiem for a dream). The cast and crew being on the academy radar and the movie playing in festival also push the narrative obviously. Aronofsky (1), Wiig (1), Lawrence (4), Barden (3), Harris (4), Peiffer (3), Jóhannsson (2), Weisblum (1), Libatique(1), Glicker (1), etc... People in many guild will probably watch it with having an "in consideration" open mindset.

The UK should be an other good market, it is one of the biggest movie ever there https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_the_United_Kingdom Poppins was bigger than the Lion Kings/Beauty and the beast in the UK, 75% of the Jungle Book

If Oscar potential became synonymous of Oscar bait the term Oscar bait lose is meaning, 100% of non sequel Pixar release get predicted for the Oscar for example,same for all the planets of the apes movies, that does not make them Oscar bait. Oscar bait is a term used in the film community for movies that appear to have been produced for the sole purpose of earning nominations for Academy Awards Everyone was predicting Dunkirk the moment it got announced, few feel that it is a movie to have been produced for the sole purpose of earning nominations, same for Coco or Inside Out.

Source ? dvd/blueray Home media sales before the year of the remake Cinderella: 95m Lion King: 160m (Not sure how well received that platinium bluray edition was too) The Beauty and the Beast: 160m Poppins: 176m Jungle book: 276m http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Beauty-and-the-Beast-(1991)#tab=video-sales http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Jungle-Book-The-(1967)#tab=video-sales http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Mary-Poppins#tab=video-sales http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Lion-King-The#tab=video-sales http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Cinderella-(1950)#tab=video-sales I agree that it will probably not be Beauty/Lion Kings because it is older, but it could play like Jungle book. The original movie is certainly more into that territory than Cinderella, it is still one of the best selling and most popular movie today, if it is good the potential is huge.

I don't know how valid the-numbers.com numbers are, but since the last time Disney got poppins out of the vault apparently it sold over 180m in physical media, that is more than a new movie like Iron Man 2. For a comparable Jungle book apparently did 295m (275 before the new movie marketing) and 1991 beauty of the beast had made 160m before the new movie getting a release (that push sales of the old one to 212m), according to the same the-numbers source. Is that movie remake doing close to Jungle Book business (or 60% of beauty and the beast) that unexpected ?, not sure if it would be breaking out, it is one of the most popular ever and still one of the best selling movie in stores. http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Mary-Poppins#tab=video-sales Dvds alone: 5/7/2017 25 8,600 8,848,371 $89,517 $172,907,185 998 MAybe the same could be said for those giant superheroes movies.

Specially for an August release, should have the benefit of the doubt. It is also an hard term to define, is any movie that has an award season campaign budget before being made (say like an American Hustle/captain Philips) Oscar baits ? Or they reserve it more for movies that are more slowpaced/serious/theme like Shoah/race relation/etc... even thought they didn't had the award season more in mind when doing the movie. Also when filmmaker get around the same age has the group of voters full of filmmaker (say a Spielberg) it is just natural for their taste to often simply align.

Not sure how the general plot/high concept is clear, really far from being the really clear Split/Get out example (those being pretty much clear in the title and their marketing). Has for the casting choice, I imagine that it is part of it yes (being younger and intimidated by those others really intimidating face with her bringing out innocence, the poster gave that impression at least)

If it open really wide 15 September (say 2300+ theater), what would be a comparable, is there one ? Crimson Peak 13m in 2984 theater maybe ? But that was a bit more on the gothic-romance than horror The Witch 8.8m ? that had the arthouse horror movie wide release going on, but first time director without a name. Shutter Island had Leo-Scorsese in a mega production with a mega release. Black Swan could be a close one, but that was a platform release pushed by an high concept and clear aesthetic that created lot of appeal before anyone saw the movie. Really not an easy movie to predict, specially with a trailer that does not show any goal/what would one root for/much spectacle like this, not much of a minimum and could go really low (It come at night did 6m, The Witch 8.8m) if the review/festival reception does not push it strongly and could go above 20m if it play close to some other "strait" not seen like too art-house horror (Like the Crimson Peak/The Witch/It come at night treatment got from audience).

Already posted.

I could imagine HBO not being interest in someone else production with Westworld already being a bit of that aesthetic in some way.Would it not be a bit too big budget for Showtime ? here in canada at least it is like half the price of HBO. Did they ever made something close to that scale of show ?

Me neither but many did (and it is obvious once you hear it): http://www.themetropolitanvegan.com/2017/07/10/a-vegans-review-of-okja-the-good-the-bad-and-the-cuddly/ That article resume a bit why I think Okja would fail as a vegan converter: This movie does a really great job of fostering compassion, but only for the smart, special animals The vegan characters featured in this movie (fictional members of the real-life Animal Liberation Front), embody many negative vegan stereotypes . While these stereotypes are used for comedic effect, the jokes are at the expense of the vegans themselves. So many representations of vegans in the media use veganism as a punchline, showing vegans extremists, hippies, or otherwise completely out of touch. Mija doesn’t seem to give a hoot about animals besides Okja. In the beginning of the movie, she uses Okja to help her catch a fish for dinner. Her grandfather says chicken soup is her favorite dinner dish. Okja didn’t teach Mija to expand her compassion to include all animals, just the smart ones? At the end of the movie, we still see chickens roaming the grandfather’s house. For you because you have seen Cowspiracy and Forks Over Knives (and I imagine vegans in your family) the parallel between the fiction slaughterhouse and reality could be obvious, but the villains are such over the top non-sense in the movie that it feel like they are showing some extreme that could be purely fictionnal. You could be right thought, maybe it did convert a lot (and not just for a couple of month), but the director itself did go back to eating meat not that long after finishing the movie: http://www.indiewire.com/2017/06/okja-bong-joon-ho-vegan-1201839076/

The movie still do a caricature and ridicule the vegans (with the not eating anything characters and so on) that combined to the fictional species made up CGI animal, ridiculous mustache turling villain, make it not that much of a vegan propaganda imo, like you I had no issue eating a steak the very next day without even thinking about it and I think that is the case for anyone that watched it, it made it very easy to watch on that point of view because of how detached to reality.

Do I understand correctly the post, it is selling ahead of Conjuring 2 and that did 40m OW (does the selling has much as Dark Tower is for dark tower complete week or just their respective monday sales ? does that mean the horror genre pre-sales less ? It is more of a date night/group activity I would imagine that it is walk up heavy). No one buy a ticket that much in advance for a movie like Hitman, it must comparing very very small number together for a giant level of noise.

It is just because only 3 of the 8 reviewer turned a rating (4.5/5, 4/5, 9/10).

To have a close idea on how movie dropping around 55% tend to do, I imagine I could have check for the 52-54 and 56-58 to have bigger pool and wider range of possible result.

Movie legs with a 54 to 56% drop since 2013: Guardians of the Galaxy 3.532373631 Elysium 3.121712691 World War Z 3.047042956 Sausage Party 2.851010231 Ghostbusters (2016) 2.789092708 Kong: Skull Island 2.753814211 Cars 3 2.750783685 Into The Storm 2.744207438 RoboCop (2014) 2.703096936 The Magnificent Seven (2016) 2.69232015 Pitch Perfect 2 2.662590446 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 2.650946415 How to Be Single 2.620042854 The Visit 2.564387027 The Mummy (2017) 2.522615786 Need for Speed 2.442016529 Life (2017) 2.418347206 Run All Night 2.402916011 Underworld: Blood Wars 2.217439195 Atomic Blonde 1.866155595 Not that many achieved to do 3.0x, Guardian 1 was a phenomenon leg wise and Elysium/WWZ was in 2013, the average is 2.7, both John wick achieved to do 3.0x leg and they had much better second weekend drop with 44.5%/46.7% on the second weekend With that drop, anything over 2.7 would be good no ?

Not that much, it did poorly on the video game side for example (or at least the small studio that made the game had to close door) and I cannot find any mention of Ghostbuster in the 2016 Mattel report, any of the Quarterly report either.