Barnack

Minimum seem to be around $87M net: http://film.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/CA-Tax-Credit-Progress-Report-FINAL-DRAFT-11-2-18.pdf The massed down talked about in the trade being 80M, it is probably not much higher than that $87M figure (seem to have been completely shoot in California) Early tracking had more 20-22M in mind than First Man opening number and seem to have went down to 16M-21M, going down isn't usually a good sign, the movie should do better than 57.5% intl too.

And even without re watch/actually opening the dvd I would imagine it is among the most collected movies out there. Before EndGame I thought because they had for a while a very high profil Netflix release with that window coming fast, now that EndGame/Captain Marvel seem to play similary to the previous one without a Netflix release maybe it was a non-factor after all. 1) One obvious factor they do better relatively to other big movie on EST/digital renting, that explain at least with they underperform on physical renting, the target population for those movies is probably more online/techno/younger than some other. 2) Price: on Amazon US: Black Panther.: $20.36 BR, $14.96 DVD Captain Marvel: $25.00 BR, $14.65 DVD AvengerEndGame: $25.00 BR, $19.96 DVD AvengerInfiWar: $19.96 BR, $19.97 DVD Aquaman.......: $18.33 BR, $13.00 DVD Shazam........: $18.90 BR, $12.70 DVD Venom.........: $16.99 BR, $14.99 DVD They do not offer any cheaps physical option for the Avengers title, even the DVD of an somewhat old Infinity war is more pricey than an Aquaman bluray. 3) Inflated box office by rewatcher/lesser proportion of people waiting for tuesday/paying the high ticket price for the PLF views, their actual viewer by $ is probably quite lower than the other, that said the same would go for a Star Wars and those were monster on physical media sale.

Historically tweets, pre-sales, reaction to trailers are not used, there is some specialized firm tracking all coming up release, asking (in the days by phone), say they asked 1,000 people and get mostly interested in 4 variable % of people that knew about the movie unaided (you ask what movie do you know are coming up and note how often X movie get named) % of people that are aware, if you name the movie they say they knew about it % of people that have definite interest in that movie % of people for who that movie is their first choice Sometime they also look at stuff like being in people Top 3, they will sometime look at them by male/female over 25, M/F under 25, hispanic segment, African american population, among teenager. Because they received those information about 3 time a week they can see the impact of each marketing effort (do a star going to Jimmy Fallon move a variable, online vs bus vs radio vs tv ads dollar value ......), it is not really necessarily trying to determine the precise OW (there is not that much value into getting that right) more determining if marketing is helping, looking at the trends that the money spent is causing. It is a way to adjust marketing effort on a movie and it is to get marketing over the year's to be has efficient has possible. With those value they will pick from a bank of movie recent comparable (genre-target audience, mpaa rating, size of release), from that people will create an equation that match the closest the variable it could look something like OW for a family movie: 3.7M + 14M*aware + 6M*first choice OW for an R-rated sci-fi: .3M + 33M*unaided + 5M*first choice A tracking update e-mails inside a studio can look like this: > On Jun 30, 2014, at 7:18 AM, "Kaminow, David" <David_Kaminow@spe.sony.com> wrote: > > Sex Tape continues to steadily build in all tracking measures, while starting to define its core audience of 17-34's. In fact, among 17-34's, Sex Tape leads all of our comps in definite interest. > > Overall, unaided is 4 (+1), aware is 65 (+4), definite interest holds at 36 and first choice is 5 (+1). > > Quads: > 3/62/32/2 > 3/69/37/5 > 6/63/39/6 > 4/63/37/7 > > Our strength sits with the 17-34 audience, who lead the way in awareness, interest and choice. > > Overall 17-34 > 4/72(+6)/42(+2)/8(+3) > > Males 17-34 > 3/73/39/6 > > Females 17-34 > 4/70/45/9 > > Looking at our comps, on an overall level, we most closely resemble Horrible Bosses and We're The Millers. However, among 17-34's we lead the way in awareness and interest and are near the top in first choice. > > OVERALL > Sex Tape 4/65/36/5 > The Heat 3/57/39/6 > Bad Teacher 4/67/40/7 > Horrible Bosses 2/59/36/4 > We're The Millers 1/59/37/4 > The Other Woman 2/59/35/7 > > 17-34's > Sex Tape 4/72/42/8 > The Heat 4/53/37/5 > Bad Teacher 5/68/40/9 > Horrible Bosses 2/62/37/6 > We're The Millers 1/58/41/7 > The Other Woman 2/60/32/7 Or for example, that was Sony tracking from NGR they received Thursday December 19 (american hustle and Saving Mr Banks were both facing each other that Friday and that weekend, both already playing in limited release). Saving Mr. Banks weekend Dec 20-22 2013: 9.34M American Hustle. weekend Dec 20-22 2013: 19.1M Their tracking looked like this (UA: unaided, TA: Total awareness, Def: Defininte interest, FC: First choice). The first number is the average of all quadrant after that you have Male under 25 followed by male over 25, female under 25 than female over 25 American Hustle(12/20/2013)UA : 17 : 16 : 17 : 16 : 18TA : 73 : 66 : 83 : 67 : 77Def: 41 : 39 : 45 : 35 : 45FC : 08 : 04 : 11 : 06 : 12 Saving Mr. Banks(12/20/2013)UA : 14 : 11 : 11 : 16 : 16TA : 80 : 74 : 81 : 79 : 86Def: 39 : 29 : 37 : 42 : 48FC : 09 : 05 : 09 : 09 : 12 Not obvious tracking got that Hustle would double Mr. Banks on their respective OW, it tracked below it since November, but when they were looking at those numbers they were seeing real money being really possible, I guess over time you get a feel to what tracking would look like for a Disney movie about some well known element vs an complete original. For movie starting on Christmas The Secret Life Of Walter Mitty(12/25/2013)UA : 07 : 06 : 08 : 12 : 02TA : 66 : 67 : 64 : 63 : 68Def: 39 : 37 : 42 : 42 : 37FC : 03 : 01 : 06 : 06 : 01 The Wolf Of Wall Street(12/25/2013)UA : 05 : 05 : 06 : 05 : 04TA : 71 : 66 : 81 : 62 : 76Def: 36 : 32 : 40 : 33 : 39FC : 04 : 04 : 05 : 03 : 05 Wolf OD was 9.15M vs 7.713m for Walter Mitty. A blockbuster in comparison numbers can look like (near 100% total awareness really close to release) > The Amazing Spider-Man 2(05/02/2014) > UA : 32 : 36 : 37 : 26 : 29 > TA : 96 : 99 : 97 : 95 : 93 > Def: 61 : 69 : 68 : 56 : 50 > FC : 21 : 26 : 26 : 19 : 13

And you can have nervous breakdown on both ?

Isn't a Monstrous Bump on the first Tuesday are more a bad sign for the final multiplier than a good one, for a R-rated movie specially ?

I am not sure how relevant that is, I could see ads and message still work as long the movies are seen. One major and arguably important difference between some title is how much the audience is aware that they are watching military propaganda or not, when you go to see a Top Gun movie you are paying and wanting an US Air Force ads, when you are watching a Zero Dark Thirty you do not feel that it is has obviously propaganda that you are watching. There is a continuum when a movie make it really explicit like a Man of steel (Consideration to join the National Guard increased by 50%) https://www.lmo.com/work/army-national-guard-soldier-of-steel-campaign A Transform and a Captain Marvel vs movie that do not and are more subtitle about it, there also a case by case to be made about how much control the military had and how they effectively influenced the movie (not that auto-censorship will not be a giant factor here, but potentially a Captain Philips that got the script approved on the first read is a different story than for movies that actually made change requested by the military). Also did the studio really needed to trade pentagon approval over the movie for access to hardware or was it greed, Malick made Thin Red Line with scene like that after all: Without a SH movie budget: On the other hand, there are many films that refused Pentagon script approval, such as Apocalypse Now (1979), Platoon (1986) Forrest Gump (1994) and The Thin Red Line (1998). It would be healthy to have healthy budget movie portraying the military a lot without having their script proof read and changed by the Pentagon, to balance the views.

Really not sure what does the joker movie and the character skin color have to do with the military influence over the entertainment industry ?

You can download the deal with Iron Man 2 and DOD details here: http://www.mediafire.com/file/b5l2iddb3d81v09/DOD-PAA-Iron-Man-2.pdf, Marvel had to screen the rough cuts to the DoD during the process so change could be made. Transformer are a big one franchise wise (and obviously Top Gun), funded is different than influenced, for example Zero Dark Thirty was influenced by the military by letting them spy on papers lying around created to influence them during their meeting, the Zero Dark Team thought they had brilliantly played the military into knowing more and exposing more truth than the military wanted, when it was all planned by the Military to create the narrative they wanted. Usually the military loan material/location to the filmmaker in exchange of good service but do not directly fund them or they manipulate them otherwise, by letting screenwriter ask them question and answer them: https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/exclusive-documents-expose-direct-us-military-intelligence-influence-on-1-800-movies-and-tv-shows-36433107c307

With an Internet that cost how much (does it not get back to that $100 a month figure) ? Anyway people are still very much used to that 100 a month bill in the USA: Cord cutting is big sure: But the vast majority of the money is still on traditional TV, that the money Disney, CBS, Universal, WB and other is trying to not loose, the switch to netflix isn't the 4th of the still giant pay TV consumer base .There will be package It is really unfair to compare already moneytised content playing on OTT era vs when it will be the main window price tag, would be like if everyone started to watch their movies for $1 for the hole family at home via redbox and see that windows pricing change. Lot of people will pass on that exactly like lot of people pass on the current get HBO, FX, Amazon, Netflix, movie theater if you want to watch their stuff.

I am not sure if it was ever true is 70% figure but like you said that is false and have been for a very long time, even in the old days annually it averaged out close to 50%. Not only is theater rétention rate is own figure he use show much more than 30% going to the theater but the company he use put together their advertissing cost and what they pay distributor on the same line, the actual amount going to distributor is lower than that. Also ticket sales - film rental = 828m Concessions sales - concessions cost = 872m It is not like ticket sales are a loss lead for Food they are often the biggest revenues for theater chain (tend to be close), even thought the margin is much higher on one.

I think must do, people saying that people would go back to piracy has if they are not doing it now (the rating of Games Of Thrones really do not match the show popularity at all) gave the impression they do not. Pay TV was a 205 billion industry, with free tv and other video it was 490 billion globally and growing. OTT streaming is proposing to replace that, Netflix made 16 billion last year to give a proportion of what is in play, Americans were paying until recently at least over $100 a month ($107) for TV in average (https://fortune.com/2018/11/15/average-cable-tv-bill-cord-cutting/), I doubt the industry will ever consider changing it for 2 subscription service totaling $20 without a big fight (or becoming the Internet subscriber if people are ready to pay a lot for that). The cost will probably stay a bit the same if not higher minus the saved made for infrastructure (but that client will pay on is Internet bill, still be paying), the content will be bigger and more practical in when/how/where you can watch it or there will be much less content made.

For one of the rape he got a fairly clement guilty plea bargain of turning it unlawful intercourse with a minor, around a month and a half of prison, 90 days of psychiatric evaluation and probation, apparently they heard that the judge would turn on that deal and sentence full prison time and he decided to flee to France, out of US authorities reach since. There was some acquisition since the #metoo that there would have been other woman since. Has for how one can still watch movies like Rosemary Baby or Chinatown even knowing those fact, they are great classic that help, the allegations are from the 70s to early 80s. You have never seen the Ninth Gate, the pianist, Chinatown, Rosemary Baby, Carnage ? Have you watched X-Me Days of Future past or listened to Micheal Jackson ?

Not sure what do you mean by going back, did they ever leave or each year's isn't the biggest year in content piracy ever ? Specially since they started to make those pre made piracy box that everyone including the ederly can easily use that exploded the phenomenon in recent year's ? Streaming piracy is now 13.22 times bigger than torrent In Canada. https://www.muso.com/magazine/global-piracy-increases-throughout-2017-muso-reveals/ https://www.todayonline.com/world/pirated-tv-shows-actively-used-spread-malware-especially-game-thrones Even netflix show like Strangers Things and House of Cards show up in the most pirated tv show in the world. https://advanced-television.com/2019/03/22/global-piracy-nears-190bn-visits-in-2018/ Similarly to 2017, the US topped the list of countries with the most visits to piracy sites (17bn) in 2018, followed by: United States Of America: 17,380,038,844 (17bn visits) Russian Federation: 14,468,624,277 Brazil: 10,283,315,744 India: 9,589,665,210 France: 7,339,837,375 Turkey: 7,335,249,001 Ukraine: 6,126,077,097 Indonesia: 6,075,238,380 United Kingdom: 5,750,562,133 Germany: 5,356,667,376 17 billion visit to a piracy site from the US in 2018, that 2.5 pirated content by weeks by house, not counting piracy made by sharing between people their downloaded content among themselve after they acquired it. If it would be only 4 subscriptions and only a those price that would not more expensive than having legally FX, HBO, Amazon, Netflix etc... for your show last year.

Well yes, that how festival work, the studio submit the movie, send copies and if the jury pick them they get in, Venice didn't sent an invitation out of the blue, it was after WB demanded one.

Source/what do you mean by that ? I am not sure how a director like that will get invited to a festival without them seeing the movie first, I am not sure how they would see the movie without having the distributor submit it first. The festival received 1,500, 2,000 movies they pick some of them to get in competition, you have to pay a fee to get in there you do not get invited out of the blue no ?, https://www.labiennale.org/en/cinema/2019/regulations Invited has in the sense: after asked if he can compete to Venice, filled a subscription form, sent the movie and paid a fee received he then received an invitation to participate?

What a fandom win mean ? What is the difference to say Denzel Washington fanbase and Jurassic Park fanbase here ?

Sure but to the point of using "we", did anyone say we won after someone else won an Oscar ? And for studios-franchise ? I fully get the interest, rooting, but the inclusion of one self in the success-failure do seem like something that must be new.

According to what Disney said to the IRS touchstone was closed before 2007: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001039/000100103907000090/filename1.htm Was merely a logo and accounting entity, no office space, no employees, etc...

One would have thought that FSL would been an important par of Disney+ but no it will not be on it apparently: https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2019/08/27/disney-plus-may-only-show-pg-13-content-giving-netflix-amazon-and-apple-an-advantage/#4ebcd66c5769 Hulu like other mentioned maybe, nothing off brand than a 6 year's old cannot watch on Disney+.

I think that was a joke (Tiff sound a perfect fit for this).

You have some of them on box office mojo: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/indonesia/ https://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/malaysia/yearly/ https://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/philippines/yearly/ https://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/singapore/yearly/ https://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/thailand/yearly/

Has movie fandom at a sport level is actually a thing that exist ? It does seem to, people using word like we and winning like a fandom. Has irrational sport fandom can be, at least there is usually a people represented, a city, a country being put on the map on the line and most of all it is a zero sum game (if a team win it mean an other loose) and actual rules to determine a champion with winning being the goal of the game, games that tend to look like if a tribe had the chance to look at their hunters going to their hunts and that the competition and the winning can be enjoyed in person among peoples getting drunk. You do not find quite gringe inducing to read people using word like we, winning, them, us, proud, etc... when talking about movies ? That pushing it quite a bit, it is not a zero sum games, Avengers doing well do not mean the next DC movie will not do well (can even be the other way around).

That sound counter intuitive, if you have a cost to something it stop being free, the second you have possible negative consequence to speech you are not fully free to speech. It is true that the protection of speech that most states offer do not protect from all consequence of said speech, but what the law protect is quite different than the general concept of freedom of speech.

TLK run is impressive for many reason. 1) It is number one in what 12 tracked markets on mojo already ? With an average ticket price quite lower than Avengers, if it stay like that in a year with EndGame and Star Wars.....that really good 2) It is from I heard a mediocre remake, those above offered all time great spectacle/movies. It is either really impressive or what EndGame did relative to Avatar isn't that much.

Fast Five outside China: 626.1M Hobbs & Shaw outside China: 525M and growing.