IceFire9yt

So if it follow's IW's third weekend, looking like Endgame could be headed for a 58% drop. There's no sugarcoating it, that's a pretty terrible drop. Even Civil War only had a 54.7% drop, and most MCU movies (even ones with not so great legs) had 50% or lighter drops. Honestly beginning to wonder if 850M might be a bit optimistic.

I mean, yeah, all competition is competition, I'm not trying to say that Pika, JW3, and Aladdin are going to have no impact on EG. But some competition is more competitive than others. If there was a CBM opening soon after its release (as with IW), EG would be in a significantly worse spot than it is with Pika and Aladdin.

At least it looks like Endgame's competition (Pika+JW3+Alladin) turned out to be no worse than IW's (DP2+Solo), perhaps a bit better even. Deadpool was a 125M opener, and a superhero movie. Solo also competed for the same franchise audience. Honestly, having these movies all open so close to each other was a boneheaded move. Pika ended up being much more of a family movie than originally thought, and opened lower than expectations to boot. John Wick is overperforming, but isn't that direct of competition and is still going to have relatively modest opening (though it looks like it will kick EG out of Imax screens). Alladin looks like it'll easily open below Solo, and won't be as direct competition as Solo either. The downside for Endgame is that it got competition sooner (though keeping Imax screens this weekend was a big win). The upshot is that it'll be the only movie 'in its lane' going into Memorial day, while IW arguably had two other movies in the same lane as it, and those movies were much bigger openers than the movies that Endgame is facing.

The main difference is that Endgame is currently facing competition with Pikachu, while next weekend IW will be the one with the big competition in Deadpool 2.

Yeah, getting the sense that over Avatar is slipping away. With a 2.485B global total at the end of the third weekend, if it makes as much as IW did from here on out OS (compensating for China's release date), that's 177M. Domestically, its looking like 850M would be a realistic total, so like another 123M or so. That gets it to 2.785B, right around Avatar. Problem is, I'm beginning to feel that making IW money internationally from here on out is optimistic, granted the Domestic number may be a tad pessimistic (depending on how this weekend goes), but there's very little leeway. Regardless, we'll have a better picture after this weekend. If it can remain decently ahead of IW in it's 3rd OS weekend and/or come in around 70M domestically, I'd feel a lot better.

If Endgame does get 18M on Friday, though, a 70M weekend seems very realistic.

Frontloading is used as a perjorative mainly because its often an indication of bad WOM. Obviously this isn't the case with Endgame.

Basically, if it follows AoU from this point onward, it'll get very close to 900M. So it needs to just barely outperform AoU, which had a 50% drop in its 3rd weekend (so 73-74M).

Currently Engame's multiplier is 1.805. This compares to 1.832 for Infinity War and 1.698 for Age of Ultron. With 12.5 as the Tuesday number, that's 3.5% of its OW (3% on Monday). Compares to 4.2% for IW (3.2% on Monday) and 3.1% for AoU (2.8% on Monday). If it matches Age of Ultron's multi from here on out, it'd get a 2.507x multi for 895M. If it continues to outperform AoU as much as it did on Monday, it'd end up with 913M. If it continues to under-perform IW by as much as it did on Monday, then it'd still get 913M.

Seeing the same thing around me, actually, with Endgame keeping its IMAX slots. At the very least we're looking for a close weekend.

There's actually a pretty straight forward reason why Endgame is outperforming other MCU movies, despite relying on them for people to follow the plot of it. A lot more people watch MCU movies than is represented by the box office. Link. As of February of last year, over half of people 18-34 have seen an Avengers movie, and the numbers for the big solo franchises aren't that far behind. Those numbers plummet in the 55+ age range, but that's still a massive share of the population to draw from (and honestly, its probably significantly higher this year than last year). Primarily, I don't think Endgame is pulling in people who've never watched an MCU movie before, its drawing in people who usually only watch the movies on streaming/Netflix, along with I'm sure a few newbies and people who've gotten into the franchise recently due to all the hype over it since BP released. As for how we got to this point- how Marvel became so broadly popular. The answer deserves it own post, really. Good movies with beloved characters, solid action, humor, variety, and above all consistent and improving quality. I think the consistency counts for a ton here. I can't think of another franchise that has been able to match Marvel in this regard (as for studios, I would also count Pixar and WDAS in this category). Obviously not every movie is a home run, but the worst of them are merely 'formulaic' 'bland' and so on. People can trust when they go to see a Marvel movie, that they're going to get their money's worth. No other franchise, not even the cultural behemoth that is Star Wars, can say that. Furthermore, I think its underrated just how much these movies have improved over the years. I'm not just talking about how mediocre most of the Phase One movies were. Marvel has a villain problem? Meet The Vulture, Killmonger, and fucking Thanos. The soundtracks are dull and uninspired? Maybe take a listen to Ragnarok, Black Panther, or Endgame's scores. The movies use color poorly? Not anymore. Not enough diversity? Not anymore. One of your franchises isn't really working? Let's give the third movie to an acclaimed comedy director! Marvel Studios actually listens to their critics.

Haha, fair enough. My post isn't really aimed at the board in general though. Some of that stuff was widely held, but stuff like GoT, the 3 hour runtime, and the spoiler leak was really just a few vocal people.

I was thinking it would take a while to dig up a post mentioning this, but nope, found it in like 30 seconds.

Part 2 movies always decrease. Infinity War had everyone, what can Endgame bring? The ceiling for CBMs Domestically is the Avengers adjusted for inflation. No movie can gross more than 70 80M in a day. Game of Thrones is going to sabotage its opening weekend. The 3 hour runtime is going to hurt it. The spoiler leak will hurt it. Detective Pikachu opening in its third weekend will hurt it.

Very possible, I was just going with a pessimistic scenario to show that the floor for this is still really damn high.

So, assuming a 150M second weekend, Endgame would have a 1.75x multi by Sunday. Infinity War at that point had a 1.76x multi. Age of Ultron had a 1.64x multi. (EG would have a slightly better 2nd weekend drop, and benefited a lot more from spillover than AoU did). AoU made an additional .76x after its 2nd weekend (for a 2.4x total). If Endgame does for the rest of its run, it would get a 2.51x multi- 896M. (in that situation I feel Disney would feel compelled to fudge and get it past 900M lol). Regardless, it does look like Endgame will hold slightly better than AoU this weekend, so it could do better than that.

Just in my area, Saturday numbers are very strong. Keep in mind my city has been relatively poorly performing for this movie compared to elsewhere (I even checked other cities in my area and they all look much better, I don't know why mine randomly doesn't like this movie), anyway, all of the mid-day and early evening shows have been doing very well, 60-70%. I didn't closely count on Friday, but to my eye that's as good as the Friday 5-7 showings (and curbstomping Friday matinees). Just like on Friday, it dies around 8:00. Can't imagine why. 🤔 Might be wishful thinking, but based on this I think we're in for a big increase today.

Judging by how estimates fell, looks like late shows did poorly. Guessing people aren't into getting out at midnight from a 9:00 show. Hopefully that means that Saturday and Sunday will be comparatively stronger.

Okay, a very disappointing Friday number. Looks like the TFA dream is dead unless EG can somehow pull a 60%+ Saturday increase out of its hat (lol). No idea how I'll be able to survive with this movie getting a measly 850M Domestic. Oh well, gotta leave something for future Avengers movies.

44M Friday would be a slightly better increase than Infinity War's, so that would be enough to keep TFA in play. But still...

If it follows IW: Friday: 43.4M (+102.9%) Saturday: 64.4M (+48.4%) Sunday: 50.6M (-21.5%) Total: 158.4M (-55.6%) If it follows TA: Friday: 50.5M (+135.8%) Saturday: 74.1M (+46.8%) Sunday: 53.4M (-27.9%) Total: 178M (-50.2%) My prediction: Friday: 46.9M (+119%) Saturday: 68.9M (+47%) Sunday: 55.1M (-20%) Total: 170.9M (-52.1%)

I'm just looking at it in terms of multiplier. If it can hold as well or better than Infinity War this weekend, then its on track to beat TFA. IW's 2nd weekend drop was 55.5%, which would translate into a 159M 2nd weekend. If its at like 160M, then this could very well be a nailbiter.

We'd need a 2.8x multiplier to get to 1B domestic. It wouldn't need to hold as well as the Avengers, but better than Infinity War, 52-53% drop maybe, for ~170M 2nd weekend. Maybe an 115% jump would be enough to put that in play, if it holds great on Saturday and Sunday, so 46M.

Thursday as a % of OW: Infinity War: 6.01% Endgame: 5.99% The Avengers: 5.97% GOTG2: 4.89% Civil War: 4.56% Age of Ultron: 4.5% Iron Man 3: 4.37% Weekdays have been bipolar. Great Monday drop, bad Tuesday drop, Good Wenednesday drop, bad Thursday drop. Anyway, this is basically even with IW and TA now, which makes me think that this is spillover finally wearing off, so it all comes down to Friday.

Here's my realistically optimistic scenario: Wednesday: 25.1M Thursday: 23M (-8.5%) Friday: 48.3M (+110%) Saturday: 71.5M (+48%) Sunday: 57.2M (-20%) Weekend total: 177M (-50.4%)