IceFire9yt

I'm getting the sense that post Endgame the Avengers aren't much of a coherent team, much more loosely connected. Just seems to be the vibe I've gotten from FFM, NWH, and the Disney+ shows.

Really interested in seeing how the Holiday legs play out. In theory this could just go insane like TFA. Damn.

Its amazing how this pulls off putting Peter through so much pain while still being a movie that made me feel good. Like, objectively Peter's life is shit now. His aunt died (like all his parental figures have) and he blames himself. As MJ said she and Ned were all he had left, but now they've forgotten him. Half the public hates Spider-man, and Peter Parker might as well be a ghost. And yet... the movie sold me on Peter's goodness and perseverance. He *is* going to prove to the world that he's a good person, he *is* going to find his way back to MJ and Ned. The inclusion of the other Peter Parkers is key in this, because they show this Peter that you can pick yourself up and heal after loss.

Yeah, I don't believe that Saturday would be lower than true Friday. 80M definitely seems possible. For what its worth, my 11:30 showing this morning was packed, completely unlike anything I've seen since before the pandemic.

Honestly stopped paying attention to the box office because everything has been so dead this year. I was so tuned out that I was still in 'yes, finally a movie with an over 100M opening!' mode. So imagine my surprise when NWH is getting 50M in previews? 120M Friday?! 250M OW?!? What?!?!?

Absolutely amazing. This movie did the impossible- it gave me closure for TASM2's awful. traumatic ending.

So I've been doing some math, looking at the True Friday:Thursday ratio and what that can tell us about the OW. I did something like this with Endgame using early Friday numbers and got a 357M opening weekend, which was right on the money. Back then, I looked at the Thursday preview numbers for every movie had a 150+ OW, took the ratio to true Friday, and plotted the correlation with the Internal Multiplier (ratio of previews to OW). Turns out there's a strong correlation. I decided to expand this to almost all movies that opened over 100M, and got a R-squared value of over .95 (quite strong). Anyway, I plugged the early BW numbers in. A 40M total Friday (26.8M true Friday)- would suggest a 93.8M opening weekend. A 42M Friday would suggest 99.4M, so that's my target to have a good shot at 100M. Of course, there's still a lot of room for variance here, what with the pandemic and Disney+, but the fact that this performed so well for Endgame (which was an unprecedented weekend) and that the data point is in a very well populated part of the graph has me optimistic. In the spoiler is the raw data. 4 movies were excluded- Indiana Jones 4, Shrek 2, and Revenge of the Sith because they had non-standard release days. Shrek 3 because it didn't have a wide Thursday midnight release.

My sister and I are seeing this in theaters on Sunday so prepare for this to be backloaded!

My sister and I will be seeing this in theaters. Anecdotally- few people at my work who like Marvel movies are also planning on seeing it in theaters.

Godzilla KoTM got 386M worldwide, getting up to the same level during a freaking pandemic while offering it on streaming is just amazing. Not a particular fan of the franchise, but I'll root for anything to do well at this point.

Absolutely the right call. Even if people would go see this during a pandemic, it just wouldn't be safe.

I've been hearing from people that they are 'over the MCU/CBMs' for years now, but it has never materialized at the box office. FFH and BW's trailer views basically confirm to me that post Endgame fatigue isn't a major factor at this point.

This is definitely encouraging to me- my #1 complaint with TLJ was how it sidelined Finn.

I'll go bold on this. 180M OW, 550M Dom, 1.75B WW.

It looks like a god damned fantasy epic. The emotional beats in the new trailer are powerful. I'm so fucking hyped for this.

Basically threw this list together in 10 minutes. 1.) Avengers: Endgame 2.) Avengers: Infinity War 3.) Captain America The Winter Soldier 4.) The Avengers 5.) The Dark Knight 6.) Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse 7.) Thor Ragnarok 8.) Guardians of the Galaxy 2 9.) Batman Begins 10.) Guardians of the Galaxy 11.) Josie and the Pussycats 12.) Kingsman 13.) Spider-Man Far From Home 14.) Men In Black 15.) Big Hero 6 16.) The Amazing Spider-Man 17.) Iron Man 18.) Spider-Man Homecoming 19.) Deadpool 20.) Deadpool 2 21.) Logan 22.) Avegers Age of Ultron 23.) The Dark Knight Rises 24.) X-Men Days of Future Past 25.) Wonder Woman 26.) Captain Marvel 27.) Black Panther 28.) Doctor Strange 29.) X-Men 2 30.) Iron Man 3

Incredible. This is the holy grail of the box office. Avatar was untouchable, no other movie even came close to it. All the way up to release, most would have said it was incredibly unlikely if not impossible for Endgame to outgross Avatar, but here we are. The impossible has happened, the untouchable has been surpassed. Its a testament to the talent, creativity, and passion of the people who've made these movies, from the directors and actors all the way down. They crafted such amazing characters, created vast and rich worlds, set up such awesome spectacle- they made people laugh, cheer, and cry. They were rarely satisfied with resting on their laurels and making easy money, they aspired to do more, to raise the bar, to make their mark. And they have. Avengers: Endgame and the MCU in general are landmarks that have permanent spots in cinematic history. Also:

I think there's a difference between being against Disney's live action remakes and being against the company itself. I enjoy Marvel, WDAS, and Pixar, but dislike the live action remakes to a movie.

I did really love Peter and Gwen in the TASM movies, the chemistry was fucking insane. They were literally the only reason I liked those movies tbh. Killing Gwen was such a dumb move, the series was dead to me at that point. Peter and MJ in the first trilogy are hit or miss for me. There are some individual scenes that are great (upside down kissing, that scene where she figures out he's Spider-Man), but MJ leaving some dude at the alter is bad and their entire arc in the third movie is unforgivable.

Just saw it, it was great. - Peter/MJ is my favorite couple in the MCU. Their chemistry is far better than any other couple's for me (not that its saying much though). I can't help it they're just so cute. They do a great job of organically showing their mutual interest. Its easy for Peter since its his POV, so I enjoy that they were able to sell that MJ is very into him as well- that fucking scene where Peter's changing and MJ's trying to loses the battle to stop herself from peaking. - I have a new appreciation for Ned. Like, he was doing Peter solid all through the movie doing his best to cover for him and protect people. - Having the same actor play Jameson was awesome. I also love the updating of the Daily Bugle to a sketchy conspiracy news site. It feeds really well into the current political climate 'fake news' and whatnot. -The midcredit scene was just amazing. What a fucking way to end the movie. Nice to see that they're committed to shaking up the status quo. I'm really looking forward to what they do with the next one. -As with most MCU movies, very funny. 'Nightmonkey' lmfao. Also the 'I will always love you' school newscast. -Again, as with most MCU movies, the action is solid. I particularly love the 'spidey sense' scene at the end. Critiques: -The scene where Peter accidentally calls the drone to kill that dude. Like I get that they need to demonstrate what the drones are, but the scene goes too far with the random things that keep Peter from getting the glasses and shutting down the drone. Also stretched disbelief that no one else notices what's going on. -The power flickered in the theater so I didn't get to see the final end credits scene, fucking ripoff. -Uhh, that's it, really. 9/10

There's no way we can be that sure about what's going to happen. Yeah, I think WW has a shot, but there are a lot of competitors out there. Honestly 2020 feels wide open to me.

In addition to separating the US and Canada, you'd have to add Hong Kong to China.

Here's the thing, the lack of China extension is only going to take like 10M off the total gross, but this is a case of 'death by a thousand cuts'. Each piece of new information we've gotten individually doesn't hurt it much, but its added up. I don't think this is beating Avatar.

Yeah, like I said, 850M is looking like the optimistic end of the range at this point.

I'm a little surprised by that 870M domestic projection, its been dropping worse than Infinity War, what's indicating that its going to start dropping better than IW in the next few weeks?