IceFire9yt

25M, great number! Still ahead of TA and IW as a % of OW. Hard to say where exactly the next weekend lands, I don't see this going under 160M. 170M looking pretty likely. 180M for a 50% drop would be a good aspirational goal.

My expectations for Wednesday: With TA's drop (-23%): 25.4M With IW's drop (-27.6%): 23.9M With IW's % of OW: 23.5M With TA's % of OW: 23.4M I'm going to go ahead and predict 23.5M. Wednesday was the first day that the Avengers had a better drop than IW, but it wasn't until Friday that it overtook IW as a % of OW. My guess this'll hang with both of these movies until Friday, which is the day that will separate the boys from the men.

That'd be around a 51% drop, which would be freaking incredible tbh, would definitely leave 1B+ domestic in play. I don't even know what to think of that 180-200M prediction. I mean, 200M would be a better drop than Black Panther.

Once you go as far as Titanic, you really can't compare movies, even adjusting for inflation. The market is just too different now, there's more competition with streaming, the internet, etc, so I doubt an equivalently impactful movie would be as rewatched as much as Titanic was. Its like comparing Gone With The Wind or Jaw's inflation adjusted grosses with modern movies... it just doesn't work. Too many variables we can't calculate.

The Monday number was a great hold, better than Infinity War or the Avengers. The Tuesday number would be a bigger drop than either movie. These aren't super predictive though, because IW had better Monday and Tuesday holds than TA did.

Applying yesterday's increase with all theaters included to that number, we'd get 33.2M, basically the average of Charlie's and RTH's numbers.

Just take the average of the numbers. 193.5M! 😛 Watch this be right.

32M is a harsher Tuesday drop than I was hoping for, but it was after a much better Monday hold than I was expecting, so I guess its perfectly balanced.

Well, Charlie's numbers would fit with that questionable twitter's poster's numbers.

Basically identical drop to Infinity War and the Avengers, IW had a 1% better drop than TA, so there really isn't much we can say beyond that.

I'll just speak for myself, but after watching that movie I had no desire to see my favorite characters torn apart and fight each other ever again.

I find this logic to be backwards. 'Endgame can't make more than X, therefore its going to have big enough drops so that it makes less than X'. But we'll know soon enough either way.

I was basing that off of this post. Looks like it was updated with actuals, though, thanks!

Imagine if last week we got that Monday number with no other context. I don't know how we'd even make sense of it.

I was wondering about Indonesia's relatively subdued increase over IW (24%). Could that just be because there literally wasn't enough theater capacity to increase more than that? Because Monday matching the pre-Endgame OD record is just ridiculous even by Endgame standards, but you might expect that if capacity was really limiting the OW.

46.8% drop from last Monday, so it looks like this'll start having normal drops now.

CM staying at #2 makes me wonder what kind of holds we're going to see from it this week.

Not only is Black Panther's 40.2M Monday record in reach, but so is TFA's 37.4M Tuesday record. If it gets 40M, a doable 6.5% drop (IW had a 5.3% drop), will do it.

Obviously this is amazing. However, Infinity War had a better Monday drop than the Avengers, so I'm not sold on this being reflective of legs. OTOH, this would be a significantly better Monday drop. Endgame: 58-55.7% Infinity War: 64.3% The Avengers: 66.9% AoU: 73.7% GotG2: 74.8% Still, its pretty clear that the Monday drop has a lot more to do with spillover than long term multi, so we should probably see how it plays out over the week.

Before we get ahead of ourselves, Infinity War had a better first Monday drop than the Avengers. The Monday drop is due to spillover, so it may or may not be representative of legs. Just urging a bit of patience here. Obviously this is still an amazing range.

39M would be a freaking 57% drop. 10.9% of OW. Infinity War had a 64% drop, 9.6% of OW.

My jaw literally dropped.

Avatar 2 could outgross the original... or it could get like, 1.5B. I know that's a huge range, but this is a situation where we really just don't have the information to make an informed prediction. Pros: The most acclaimed director in the buiseness Sequel to the (current) highest grossing movie worldwide Will have amazing visual spectacle Cons: Long gap between original and sequel Little attachment to the characters or story Will whatever visual spectacle that Cameron is working on create a zeitgeist the way 3D was for Avatar? Will it be as unique and marketable as 3D was in 2009? If Avatar 2 can genuinely replicate that lightning in a bottle that Avatar had, then sure, it can absolutely outgross Avatar. The problem is, you can't predict that. There is just no way to know when lightning will strike.

Shoutout to Ghostbusters 2 beating the record by .4% and holding it for a week.