IceFire9yt

Yeah, this movie is just a ton to take in. I can't stop thinking about it and I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to get a solid grip on everything until I see it a second time. IW does feel cleaner to me, the pacing is better. Not that I didn't love Endgame, its just... a lot.

Yeah, its not going under 43M. I'm thinking mid 50s?

I mean, that'd be damn close to Infinity War's entire gross in Italy, right?

Funny story, I went on Fandango out of curiosity to check how my show had sold, and they put me into a cue! (for like 30 seconds, but still!) So... guessing a lot of tickets are being sold.

I'm not going to put that much stock into one theater. I mean, in the tracking thread people compile presales from many theaters, and even then there's variation. Interesting data point, but nothing to get worked up about.

How is Endgame doing in the smaller cities and rural areas?

So 700M then?

Lets just take a look at the top 10 best opening weekends Infinity War - 2.63x The Force Awakens - 3.78x The Last Jedi - 2.82x Jurassic World - 3.12x The Avengers - 3.01x Black Panther - 3.47x Age of Ultron - 2.4x Incredibles 2 - 3.33x Civil War - 2.28x Beauty and the Beast - 2.88x That is a really solid set of multipliers. The only two that have poor multis are Age of Ultron and Civil War, but its kind of hard to claim that the size of the opening weekend is the cause of this, since Infinity War, The Avengers, and Black Panther had better multipliers off of better opening weekends. Like, the lowest opening Avengers movie has the worst legs. Or look at TFA, which has a better multiplier than Rogue One or TLJ, again despite having a larger opening weekend. Or look at Jurassic World, which has a better multiplier than The Fallen Kingdom despite opening far higher. This idea that a big opening week leads to a poor multiplier strikes me as one of those 'common sense' things that actually has no support if you look at the data. The more people who see a movie on opening weekend, the more people who would consider re-watching it later, and the more people there are to tell their friends and family about the movie, and the more media buzz the movie generates to entice more people to see it. To be fair, there are going to be some diminishing returns on these effects as a movie reaches saturation, but even a 300M OW would be less than 10% of the US population.

By complete chance, Endgame is perfectly positioned for this 8 day holiday. I'm really curious to see how much it can take advantage of it.

Holy shit, over Aquaman is possible now. Depends on how it holds after Endgame releases. If it gets mostly normal drops Domestically, I could see it getting over 430M. Combinded with 710-720M OS... Of course, it could fall harder after Endgame releases. We'll have to see.

Something tells me their prediction will be accurate. (though not precise)

Nah, BOM has it at 191M, but for some reason they decided to exclude midnights. With Midnights included it opened at just over 200M USD.

Interesting, this would be Captain Marvel's third Wednesday in a row where its higher than the previous Monday.

For a comparison. Black Panther's Monday on roughly this date was a 70.6% drop from Sunday, and a 16.6% drop from the previous Monday, that weekend it would have a 14.6% drop. The Winter Soldier's was a 70.3% drop from Sunday, and a 44.3% drop from the previous Monday, that weekend it would have a 38% drop. The thing skewing this is that last Monday was definitely somewhat suppressed, still very good for CM.

Something monumental does seem to be happening in Europe.

The path towards previews over TFA seems pretty clear right now. Even if Engame's presales are less frontloaded than TFA's, this is going to beat TFA's presales handily, so...

At first I was a tad disapointed, but then I realized you said final. Jesus.

#Notanevent #Flopincoming #FiretheRussos

I don't think a conservative model is going to inherently be more accurate. It's only more useful in the sense that it doesn't get people's hopes up. Its equally valid to point out that all these predictions are based on very pessimistic assumptions that aren't well justified, and there's a very good chance that this consensus is dead wrong. Sure, you can point to some OW record breakers that had poor legs due to front loading (DH2), but plenty of movies that have broken those records have had great legs (TA, JW, TFA). Its a fallacy to assume that high OW mean poor legs. If you look at the best opening movies it's pretty clear that this isn't the case. 4/6 200M+ openers domestically have a 3x or more multi. The Avengers movie with the lowest opening also has the worst legs. Imo reception and rewatchability are far more important for legs than OW.

My thoughts have been similar. By the metrics we have, this is crushing every movie we can compare it to. Presales, social media, the fact that fricken cast interviews are going #1 on YouTube trending- it's all crazy. I think people are shying away from the obvious conclusion from all of this because it's just to much to contemplate. It's too far beyond what we know for people to be comfortable with. I honestly have no idea how far this thing can go with fantastic reception.

Domestic: $294,350,000 Overseas: $667,760,000 Worldwide: $962,110,000 China: ¥1,611,000,000

Do we see the same sort of collapse happening in any other European markets?

I'm pretty sure there is. The way Infinity War was able to outperform all expectations in so many markets makes me suspect this. I don't think IW was (primarily) drawing in people who'd never watched an MCU movie before, it had such a 'must see' factor that it was drawing in the people who used to wait to watch them/pirated them. The assumption kinda was that IW was the entire MCU audience, but it would make sense that there'd be an even greater push to see Endgame in theaters.

It'll be close, I think. Looks like the Endgame boost might carry it over the finish line.