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Everything posted by IceFire9yt
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Haha, my area has been weaker for Endgame from the get go, shows filled up slower, fewer later showtimes, etc. Despite that, it seems like everything was full up this weekend until Sunday evening. I live in a small city, so that might have something to do with it (seems like most people who track theaters are from larger cities). 20% capacity still strikes me as strong for a freaking workday, though this is literally the only movie I've looked at so I have no idea tbh.
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So lets see, countries by % increase over IW. English speaking: Domestic- 36% (could go up to like 40% with actuals) Australia- 36% UK- 30% Mainland Europe: France- 38% Germany- 76%!!! Italy- 73%!!! Spain-55%! Latin America: Brazil- 36% Mexico- 30% Asia: China- 65%!! Hong Kong- 56%! India- 44% Indonesia- 24% Japan- 43% Phillipines- 43% South Korea- 21% (flop!) Taiwan- 25% (flop!) Thailand- 45%
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So my stretch goal for this movie is now 982M. That would put it over Snow White adjusted for inflation, meaning Endgame would be in the Top 10 Domestic adjusted for inflation, and the first movie to accomplish this feat since Titanic over 2 decades ago. With 360M, it needs a 2.73x multi to do it, lol.
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Thursday: 60M Friday: 96.7M Saturday: 109M (+12.7%) IW increased 22% from true Friday, the Avengers increased by 12.6%. I'd say the Sunday range is between -15% and -20% from Saturday. Infinity War decreased by 15.7% on Sunday, while The Avengers decreased by 18%. That'd give a Sunday range of 87.2 to 92.7M. So 353M-358M for the weekend.. If it can somehow get a 10% drop on Sunday due to insane spillover, then we'd be at 98.1M, for a 364M OW. So, looks like 370M is off the table unless the Saturday numbers go up, but thankfully 357M is easily within reach.
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It'll probably need at least 900M domestic to have a shot at Avatar (probably a bit more, depends on OS, but we're talking about the minimum performance needed here), that would be a 2.5x multi off of a 360M opening. The OW is so huge that Endgame can have less than stellar legs and still make a run for TFA domestic and Avatar WW. Honestly, even a 56-58% drop might be good enough to do that. AoU got a 2.4x multi off of a 59.4% drop. Infinity War got a 2.63x multi off of a 55.5% drop.
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In my smaller city (Richmond, Va) things haven't been as crazy as some of the trackers have been seeing in the bigger cities. Now though, almost every showing I checked before 9:00 today is nearly sold out, even 3D showings. It seems like the 9-10pm shows are are generally ~50% sold. After 10:00, plenty of seats open.
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Okay, but does it even matter what GoT is going to do to Endgame now? Like, if it knocks 5, 10 million off the gross, at this point its literally just a drop in the bucket, especially since those people are just going to see at at some other point anyway. Like if this grosses 340M instead of 350M.... what's the big deal?
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So we're at the point where even if it *only* matches Infinity War's Saturday and Sunday, its still getting over 300M. Wow. A 155M Friday number would put the previews:Friday ratio at 1.58x. That's less than IW's 1.73x, but better than TFA, DH2, TLJ, RO, and TDKR. I decided to graph the ratio to the overall weekend multiplier for movies with OW higher than 150M, and got a very strong correlation (R2 of 0.9045). (I left out Spider-man 3, not because it didn't fit the correlation, it fit well enough, but because it was so far out of scale with everything else) That one outlier is BvS, due to Easter I'd assume. Anyway, if that 155M number holds, this correlation would suggest an opening weekend of 357M. Hey, at least it'd fit the trend of Avengers movies breaking records 7M over the milestone.