Cooper Legion

Why check d-8? Tomorrow eod figure will be d-5

... is it? Would have happened in 2019 if It2 made like, 6% less (or 42% more, for that matter). 2019 was pretty great. We could have avoided it this year if Thor did 13% less, but that hardly would have made the year better -- would have been worse. I don't really see the significance of the 200-300M nominal gross range, it's just sort of a random function of ticket prices and appeal distribution of movies scheduled for the year that it happens to be empty. With 2019 prices we'd have thor in 200s. With 2023 prices we'd have sonic in 200s. Quirk of fate.

Lucky number 13 😎 As for next week… things are bleak: BP2 Violent Night SW Menu Devotion BA Fable Bones are an easy 8. From holdovers, could keep Ticket and/or TGM —or could play with the Father Stu rerelease or Spoiler Alert expansion.

Saw your post on derby wall @XXR 4 Modsident — I don’t think you missed posting a 7th? Oct 7 was 7th and Nov 18 8th

M3GAN previews over avatar dom

All eyes on She said Sunday actual

Adjusting for inflation 17 points is nothing

Apocalypse canceled — 17.5ish still not great but makes a little more sense with the start of the week. Maybe 13.5 for VN, quite a solid start and the satsun heaviness should help with legs.

Sounds like 20 too few

Looks more like a 5-10% atp advantage -- TGM comp will be below 20 soon and jwd will be hard to keep up with at the end. 18 very reasonable.

Yep

This is why you’ve gotta split the difference between daily calculations and external expectations with a value like, say, 19 I just need bones to do good, that’s my big swing this week 😂

2022 had two awful movies+a solid one which was unfortunately spin-off-y due to a tragic real world event. 2023 movies having weak af trailer views though. I think saga 2 will end up getting impacted pretty hard if they can’t get back to consistently good-great movies — and the nature of the saga could make that pretty tricky 👀 Will be interesting to see a few more firmly post-pandemic data points but definitely applying a penalty now relative to “normal mcu performance” (I.e. infinity saga, which Audiences may be treating as increasingly distinct now that there’s been more of a stark break).

Looks like maybe 16.5M BP, 4.7M SW, very rough in both cases compared to pro forecasts (22.1M, 5.5M) and derby avg (21.7, 5.44). In contrast menu with ~3,6M vs (3.05, 3.12)

Menu quietly having a pretty nice run here, for what it is. May continue to leg well through the month.

I mean, the last 3 days have all been pretty bad (going of 4.5). The problem is, as Eric says, the hyperbole and condescension, not the opinion that BPWF will have a pretty meh total in itself.

The comp movement is still pointing to sub 20 imo, but Fri and Sat are pretty cracked. I wonder what the best IMs are for say, 6PM or earlier 15M+ previews, cause that record might be in play. Also, this is my 20,000th post Edit: Looked it up and it’s batb with 10.7x, so… no. The best with a 6 or earlier start and 18M+ is Incredibles 2 with 9.88x. Now that’s some real “kid movie” shit.

The problem is not “stating facts” lol, the problem is your attitude. This repeated public whining about what was probably a single small warning ain’t helping.

Not even 17? Wheels really are coming off

Deadline nums look quite reasonable. The BP Wed was pretty shitty so the weekend wasn’t hitting 20. Should still hold well through the holiday season for 450ish. SW is funny

Just gotta recruit terrestrial 🧠

Iron man? Black widow? Odin? Aunt May? There are hella minor characters and villains that stay dead too but that doesn’t quite seem to be in the spirit.

Right I understand what numbers you were using, my reply was about why you shouldn't be using them (inflated 3rd Mons for various reasons)

Not expecting anything until like, April.

This is a pretty useless frame — may mcu have partial summer and Canadian holiday 3rd mon, July mcu have full summer, Nov mcu have thanksgiving week 3rd mon. MCU post thanksgiving wknd/post thanksgiving mon is generally 9-9.5x, with Rag pulling a beastly 11x — however that was presaged by the Wed/mon increase so in this case we are shooting for more like 8-8.5x unless Fri jump over indexes.