Cooper Legion

This is some pretty ballsy revisionism, my friend.

Weekend looks like it could dip 50% (hoping for more like 35-40%, but that may be too optimistic). If so, we are 700k away after a 175k weekend/510k Christmas+culture boosted week. So needing a roughly 5x weekend multiple, or 2.37x week multiple. Just glancing at some multiples from movies with kind of similar schedules in the past few years, beating a 4x from the weekend isn’t easy. So frankly I would like to see a low 200s weekend before feeling really good about Endgame. However, it can be tough to tell with the holidays.

What in the fuck

There’s a pretty reasonable shot that AQM2 in bigger than 2022 SW is DOM and all regions. Just look at AQM1 gross, CBM sequel trends, non-Skywalker saga SW grosses, and SW trends...

The BOP forecast was from Tuesday, when we had only Mon data. Cut it some slack 😛

1) Eternals Black Widow Raya Onward Mulan Jungle Cruise Soul No Time to Die WW84 10)Tenet

Oh, that is good to know, I thought it was all day showings. Cats egg is a sight to behold, very funny. Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 ASHFALL South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $1,861,742 ($34,597,523) 248,605 (4,790,708) 1,376 41.66% 2 Forbidden Dream South Korea Dec 26, 2019 $832,729 ($1,665,632) 110,618 (271,922) 1,118 18.63% 3 START-UP South Korea Dec 18, 2019 $741,921 ($13,857,575) 97,502 (1,926,533) 899 16.6% 4 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $300,585 ($94,318,679) 39,769 (13,113,822) 555 6.72% 5 Cats U.S.,U.K. Dec 24, 2019 $251,010 ($4,447,844) 33,865 (619,906) 731 5.61% 6 The Haunted House: The Sky Ghost VS Jormungandr South Korea Dec 19, 2019 $106,887 ($3,529,328) 16,074 (517,665) 453 2.39% 7 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $102,293 ($8,591,309) 12,967 (1,136,128) 181 2.28% Getting to the point where CGV rounding things to the nearest 1000 makes the data a bit bumpier to work with, but not a huge miss. -42% daily CGV PS today are 17k. Going to estimate a 73k day.

As a hourly tracker in other countries, the most intellectually stimulating time to give a daily number is from PS only. Also it’s right before Jat goes to bed. People just need to treat them like we with e.g. a2k doing some daily extrapolation, or buzz thread trying to nail down a preview night, not nighttime purple numbers.

+Ne Zha and Wandering Earth 😉

Well I mean you can always just wait 72 hours and have actuals. I feel like you’re still kind of missing the point here. Many people like to, as a mental exercise, try to guess what numbers will be before we have them. Somehow, I feel like you actually do know that, and are jut being kind of dense about it. Now, when people are doing that, they like to use the best models they can. Obviously, those will not be perfect. If you can’t actually offer any suggestions as to what would be a better way to predict than looking at 2013, I am forced to conclude that you agree it is the best available (quite reasonably). And then I rather wonder what the point of your last 3 or 4 posts here had been, except that it looks like TROS is heading for a lowish weekend and you don’t like that.

Okay, well that’s a nice soundbite, but you 100% dodged my actual question.

What else would you have us use?

Thurs:weekend should be 2.7-2.9 or so, would take low end personally. But the best Thurs estimate is still 30.5, national level data is much better than just scraping 2 big chains. 30.5*2.75=84. If there’s already been a late night purple post you should pretty much ignore keyser data, useful as it is for PS and when purples aren’t around.

Midday update: final CGV will be 23 or 24k. Hard to say how much CGV ratio comes back to normal after yday. For now I’ll just say 42k. Cats headed to sub 40k probably, so F2 back to 4th place.

I compiled the bigger/funnier ones:

Last time on Han vs Eric! The Ultimate* Showdown of Ultimate Destiny (of 2019): CM narrowly resolved in Eric's favor, but Endgame was a clear success for Han, leaving our first installment tied up 5-5. How will things turn out for our intrepid forecasters when the dust settles? Find out... right now, on the thrilling conclusion of Han vs Eric! The Ultimate* Showdown of Ultimate Destiny (of 2019): Selected highlights and commentary: *Disclaimers apply.

Gems seems good to me. How’s RJ looking?

I’ll take: 405 +19 FSS= 424 16 Mon-Thu + 12 FSS= 452 452+12*4=500

Me: *visible confusion* Me+Google: *confusion intensifies* Me+using Google better:

I feel like the daily PS projections for TROS have been absolute 🔥. IIRC all 7 days+ previews have a pretty great % error.

J3 is back on track. Frozen late shows, time to Show Yourself.

Yeah, I mean it’s been very unlikely since OW. Like 610+610 would be pretty great legs for TROS from here, and is a miss. Of course something like 70% of the WW top 10 this year are missing Endgame's opening weekend. It’s a pretty high bar.

Yeah, so that’s like 26M OS Mon-Wed, which includes Christmas but not Boxing Day. Fine numbers.

Movieman won