Cooper Legion

This is what the top 15 Thanksgiving 3-days did post-Thanksgiving: F1- Dec 6-8 1 $31,616,230 -53.1% 3,742 - $8,449 $134,253,666 3 Moana-Dec 2-4 1 $28,270,989 -50.1% 3,875 - $7,295 $119,786,319 2 TS2-Dec 3-5 1 $27,760,276 -51.6% 3,238 +2 $8,573 $116,781,392 3 Coco-Dec 1-3 1 $27,533,304 -45.8% 3,987 - $6,905 $110,108,708 2 Grinch (2000)-Dec 1-3 1 $27,096,630 -48% 3,138 +4 $8,635 $171,996,090 3 THG:CF-Dec 6-8 2 $26,185,886 -64.7% 4,163 - $6,290 $335,850,842 3 WIR2-Nov 30-Dec 2 1 $25,566,945 -54.5% 4,017 - $6,364 $119,105,178 2 HP1-Nov 30-Dec 2 1 $23,642,327 -58.9% 3,672 - $6,438 $219,670,289 3 THG:MJ1-Dec 5-7 1 $22,026,762 -61.3% 4,054 -97 $5,433 $258,153,593 3 Tangled-Dec 3-5 1 $21,608,891 -55.7% 3,603 - $5,997 $96,570,812 2 HP:GoF-Dec 2-4 1 $19,878,136 -63.7% 3,858 - $5,152 $229,266,716 3 THG:MJ2-Dec 4-6 1 $18,857,547 -63.7% 4,086 -89 $4,615 $227,369,547 3 FB1-Dec 2-4 2 $18,118,111 -59.8% 3,988 -156 $4,543 $183,080,514 3 HP:DH1-Dec 3-5 2 $17,018,475 -65.3% 4,125 - $4,125 $244,519,116 3 I dunno if any openers on a post Thanksgiving weekend have even done 20. Record should still be F1, F2 will beat easily. Highest non-opening post-post-thanksgiving should also be a go. Edit: Average animation drop here is 51.5%, would give F2 41.7M

One of which is its predecessor. An MCU sequel having any kind of fall is a disappointment unless the previous one did absolutely nuts (Like, AoU falling is fine, TA was WW #3. An Endgame successor falling obviously is fine. BP2 falling would be fine. That’s about it).

10-day cume ranking, if you want it: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top_release_gtd_nth_day/?by_interval=10&ref_=bo_csm_ac

Oh well sure, 340+720 or something would be a disappointment, but not shocking. But to miss a billion it probably needs to do under Homecoming’s unadjusted DOM gross. That seems a bit much given the cliffhanger and good reception to FFH.

We’re at the point where each reveal that isn’t my personal number one makes me smile a little wider.

Competition is over rated. Movies with big interest will do big business. Sure things change over time, but predicting a 12% drop for an MCU sequel when 0/12 have done so (and the only drop was regression to the mean from a huge overperformer, which FFH wasn’t) is a pretty bold take. I mean by the time Spider-man 3 comes out it will need to do worse than Homecoming to miss a billion.

Dropping over 10% from it’s predecessor ??? Have you met the MCU? Not even Ultron did that.

No, TWS WW performance would correspond to just 900M. I’m aware that DOM and OS don’t add up to WW, there’s no particular reason they would with this method since they’re all growing at different rates.

Seeing a lot of people say “TWS style performance.” FWIW, Winter Soldier did: OW 30th DOM 73rd OS 57th WW 61st In may 2020 that’d take about: OW 135M DOM 320M OS 620M WW 900M Seems like a reasonable middle ground to me.

1 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $1,299,754 ($62,926,045) 194,985 (8,982,983) 1,915 60.68% 2 Bring Me Home South Korea Nov 27, 2019 $269,912 ($3,657,799) 41,866 (548,446) 764 12.6% 3 BLACK MONEY South Korea Nov 13, 2019 $220,157 ($16,496,101) 34,121 (2,328,776) 749 10.27% 4 CRAWL U.S. Nov 27, 2019 $68,422 ($890,824) 10,574 (131,740) 527 3.19% 5 Love at Second Sight Belgium,France Nov 27, 2019 $47,734 ($459,377) 7,620 (68,813) 133 2.22% 6 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $34,454 ($84,745) 7,000 (13,016) 36 1.6% CGV PS down to 24k, seems like a bigger hit from openers than I thought. Day might be 150kish. FvF 10k, KO 17k. Inexperienced with small movie OD PSm, so no projections for either. Seem fine though.

They will keep the date since it already includes the Labor Day boost. Moving the release up puts the holiday on Day 8 instead of day 1, makes zero sense.

Eh, sure. I am not even sure why I watched this trailer. I’m going to be in the theater Thursday night anyway, so all I really care about is how good the 2 hour version is, doens’t have that much to do with the 2 minute promo. It looks fine. Pretty sure Pugh will be the important thing for the bigger MCU coming out of this movie, so hopefully that part goes well. Low end 100->280+530 High end 150->410+700

😛

Japan has been crazy this year. Maybe just not enough dollars and consumer interest to go around for a fine-but the-first-entry hardly-needed-it sequel.

3.3 5.5 2.8 2.8 9.3 19 12.7

I’m just not sold that a non-Skywalker entry is actually an EVENT film. I mean they’ve averaged like 700M WW, and the first was coming when the franchise was much hotter than currently. CBM sequels are the best at bucking the sequel drops too, though I expect AQM2 down from 1 to some degree.

It wouldn’t be an issue for Frozen at this point, which will be on Day 14 tomorrow and not that screen hungry anyway. 12.5 looking great, I’m dreaming bigger as I have been since a couple days before release

I think it can hit the 490s, but that’ll be all.

I’ve been doing a weekly recap sort of thing on reddit for a while, and decided I might as well start linking them here as well if no one minds:

Trailers huh? Probably just domestic and international.

Up 2.2M with actuals: INTERNATIONAL (61.1%) $453,215,336

The first claim is not factual. The second is subjective. And per Eric's warning, there is really nothing more to be said about that here.

The source of the Doomwar rumor has since decided to adopt a 1-10 scale of credibility for rumors that they hear. Doom in BP2 is a 1 (least credible).

Good news: Finally trying variable pricing. Bad news: Even variable pricing can’t save this.

I agree with this last sentence, but I don’t think that should stop you comparing Ethan Hunt’s popularity to a role that gets recast more. Just means that when you do make the comparison, everybody should understand that you mean “Ethan Hunt as played by Tom Cruise in the Mission Impossible series” and not bother about the hypothetical popularity of a movie with “Ethan Hunt” in a new continuity starring somebody else. Some MCU characters you need to take more of a “averaging over different versions” approach, e.g. Spider-Man, Quicksilver, soon the X-men, because there are multiple recent versions. But most MCU characters are more of an Ethan Hunt, where there is only one version that really matters for public conception of the character and it doens’t make much contextual sense to try to separate some general version of the character from the dominant portrayal.