Cooper Legion

Ticket inflation is definitely not the right way to adjust these things though. CM’s 2002 adjusted OW would have set a new OW record, for instance.

None taken, but that’s completely not the case. It was an extremely numerically driven comparison.

Well yeah, it definitely doesn’t automatically mean that. That’s not what I’m trying to say, either. There’s no real way to evaluate any of these “how much would X movie make OW/total if it came out Y years earlier/later” type of counterfactuals, just got to make some approximations and live the fuzziness. A 90M opening this weekend would be behind 75 OWs, so I’d say it’s approximately as strong/impressive as opening behind 75 other OWs in another year — whether that be 2014 (69.3M), 2009 (54M), 2004 (40M), 2002 (29.5M), or 2024 (~125M? Maybe?).

OWs grow faster than general ticket inflation as moviegoing habits become more frontloaded. 90M is 76th place today and consulting the wayback machine 76th place was 53-54 in July 09 and 54.16 in Oct 09. http://web.archive.org/web/20091010204959/http://www.boxofficemojo.com:80/alltime/weekends vs https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/

It’s clearly a great opening for the genre and MPAA rating in a vacuum, but it’s understandable that people get their expectations anchored a bit by the predecessor. And FWIW 90M OW nowadays is equivalent to about 54M OW a decade ago, so there really is a strong element of “the times they are a changing” about how impressive certain raw numbers are.

In a business sense, yes.

Man, what a dreadfully dull Friday. The top 7 made like $7M combined.

The other 2 are Alice through the Looking Glass and Independence Day Resurgence (if you even count that).

Just off the top of my head, one came out in June 😛

And I’d really caution people about that 30M true Fri. I think Jat’s PS:OD skills are solid, but it’s a fundamentally tough prediction to be making and it came from before we had a preview number. 30M True Fri would be x2.85 from previews, It1 was just x2.75. I suspect true Fri will come in more 27-29ish, which would still be pretty compatible with the 9AM ballpark.

Probably happening, but it’s not too hard to imagine x7.8-> 82 and x2.4 ->197 or something.

They’re the ones producing the most audience appealing content.

I was also thinking that the nearly 3 hours might drive business toward Sat+Sun. It’s hard to draw many conclusions from Endgame’s OW in that regard (since... 60M previews, 100M true single days, etc) but it makes intuitive sense to me. I’m guessing x8.5ish, we’ll have to see what the audience metrics are like but anecdotally it seem to be getting solid reception.

Shrek the third was including previews (the Brits are sneaky like that). Charlie noted in the comments that Shrek would be removed.

Just to be crystal clear, we’re predicting the official, midnights included Friday, right? Not the true Friday?

Damn, I need to start wearing a tinfoil hat.

Put Mulan, BW, Eternals, FF but we’re so far out. Wouldn’t be surprised if any of those missed or if some combination of WW, Bond, Minions made it.

Endgame? Aladdin? Ne Zha? Wandering Earth? CM? Pikachu? The past will usually feel less surprising, since you know exactly how it all happened. But if you compare what people were thinking 6 months before to what actually happens, dunno if 2019 actually scores very low on surprises.

This is one of the stupidest debates in site history. Hopefully I have the good sense never to comment on it again. The only thing the Part 1/Part 2’ers demonstrate is that they don’t understand what makes something a Part 1+Part2.

Yeah, the total was absolutely bonkers and unlikely to be touched. I’m thinking something like 225->600 — with the obvious caveat that we’re like 3 years away, and if it did 24% less than that it would still be great.

Hmm, this will be fun. Guess I’ll need to open a BP2 over TLJ OW club once it’s close enough to be eligible.

If showings aren’t selling out (or at least, selling out of the good seats) I feel like showings have a pretty limited effect, right? Like if we have Angel Has Fallen triple the showings it got (+200%), I doubt the OW would go up by even 5%.

Drifting off-topic, so if people want to continue please quote this in the BP2 thread. But I also don’t really see why it would decrease on OW. The legs were x3.5, so I think the common sequel pattern of worse legs but better OW will be followed. As Nero points out every MCU solo sequel has increased in admits on OW, with the smallest being IM2 at roughly +20%. BP2 of course is starting highest and that makes things harder, but the Avengers affect is still in play. With over 4 years of increased ticket price BP2 could fall 10% in OW admits and still clear 200M.

Wonder what Disney is giving her for Raya

I’m rereading the Endgame 5-day OW portion of this thread. Good times.