Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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16:20 4th hour in a row adding 7k. Depending on late night strength I’m expecting 165-180 final CGV. Doesn’t seem like a very exciting OD, but KOBIS PS are still pretty big so I guess it will play like a more kid/family targeted movie with big jumps the weekend proper.
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From morning hours I still like my +-400. Will update hourly til 16:20ish (with a possible 2 hour gap if I go see a movie myself). 12:20 I’d take the under if forced. I am seeing a movie, next update 15:20. 15:20 TLK 114k. Even assuming TLK will be skewed toward nights as more of a family movie and using CM’s first Friday as a comp, pretty difficult to see final CGV above 190k or so for me. Also, somewhat to my surprise, Aladdin seems to be getting hit harder than FFH today. I guess there’s more genre overlap there, fingers crossed for speedy recovery.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Bad at reading, nvm -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
TLK’s % solds look “bad” because it got an outrageous slate of showings. Like almost Endgame level, when it would be incredible lucky to do 2/3rd Endgame OW business. -
POKEMON DETECTIVE PIKACHU - 283.2M OS - 425.5M WW
Cooper Legion replied to PanaMovie's topic in International Box Office
It’s possible that WB will find The required 3.5M lying around in the form of end of run adjustments. But the article that got widely reposted today simply performed a calculation of 143.3+286+0.007=436, and it stood uncorrected for 5 hours at the top of a site supposed to be about BO. -
POKEMON DETECTIVE PIKACHU - 283.2M OS - 425.5M WW
Cooper Legion replied to PanaMovie's topic in International Box Office
They added 6M instead of 6k and then published a 100% false article, which now has 800 upvotes on reddit because nobody there could be bothered to check the facts for themself -
Saturday 5:15-6:45 is the Marvel SDCC panel. They should announce most 2020+2021 movies at minimum, probably with some casting announcements and art/clips.
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The ideal scenario for them is probably that it's short Friday, but passes during the day Sat. Looks possible, depending on the OS actuals and weekdays.
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GoT S8 Emmys
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CGV PS for Wed: TLK 72k FFH 8k Aladdin 6k TLK’s egg rating up to 91% for now. I assume TLK will have a better OD PSm than the MCU comps we have, but son’t really know how much, maybe 400+-40 for the OD?
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Today 16:20 Aladdin 35k FFH 34k With same 16:20 to actuals ratios as yesterday, would lead to FFH 106k Aladdin 90k Given PSA and the amount of screenings TLK will take up, assuming Aladdin will be over FFH tomorrow and rest of run.
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The July Monday is above the March Monday huh 😛
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52. Ties The Avengers, Black Panther, and Incredibles 2 for first place in 2010s. Only Frozen 2 and maaaaaybe TLK seem to have a sliver of a chance to join/beat those 4, but it’s not like anyone saw Aladdin coming so maybe e.g. Dora will really surprise 😛
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Projecting for FFH and Aladdin based on selected Mon-Sun week multipliers. For FFH: Transformers 274.6+89.5*1.39=399M TASM 274.6+89.5*0.97=261M AM1 274.6+89.5*1.51=410M SMH 274.6+89.5*1.41=401M AM&TW 274.6+89.5*1.46=405M TASM getting smashed by TDKR is clear as day here. To what extent TLK does the same will be the big question for where Spidey ends, but probably under 400. For Aladdin: Zootopia 331.8+11.1*2.76=362M GotG 331.8+11.1*2.51=360M I excluded Wonder Woman since it’s multiplier was too skewed by Labor Day expansion, and The Jungle Book since its week was skewed by Memorial Day (though using next week’s multi gives 357M). If Aladdin snags some Labor Day action an additional 5-10M should be possible. Oh, and just for kicks: Frozen (skewed by MLK) 331.8+11.1*4.52=382M