Deadpool 2 opens at the end of IW’s 3rd week. TA had a 1st:3rd week multi of 476.7/270.0=1.765
This Thurs figure puts IW’s first week at 338.5, so we’d have about 338.5*1.765=597.6 before the big competition shows up. From there it would need to make 163M to catch Avatar, or about 27.25% of its day-21 total.
Thor:Ragnarok failed to do so with *very* heavy competition (21%). Spider- Man was about 26%. GotG2 24.4%. Strange 21%. Civil War 14%. Ultron 20%.
So, with this model of the run Avatar does look quite safe, though passing BP looks pretty good still. I think the ~600 end of 3rd week, ~730 final numbers from this kind of run look about right for now.
26.7% above Avengers Thursday, which as aa and sam already went through translates to a 130.5 weekend.
I'll outline an even more optimistic possibility, since it has had better day-to-day % than Avengers every day except Wednesday so far.
Fri: 37.7 (+140%)
Sat: 56.9 (+49%)
Sun: 41.5 (-27%)
2nd weekend: 136.1 (-47.2%)
Shockingly possible, though I'd take the under.
And of course, this sets a new record for a non-opening schoolday Thursday.
More than triple the sales of Mon/Tues/Wed. Seems safe to say that many of them must be for the upcoming weekend at this point, so I think we can pretty safely say that the gap between Fandango % and BO% on Wednesday has to do with more weekend sales on Wednesday.
-10% theaters for Rampage and -0% for Panther?
Top 5 should be IW, Overboard, AQP, IFP, but then an interesting fight between Rampage, Panther, and Tully to round out the top 5.
Oh, sure. I mean, if you had given me this Wednesday number 2 weeks ago I would have flipped out. Sat and Sun and Mon and Tues were fucking huge though, and this drop is pretty in line with the other smash-hit, huge-OW, surprisingly-leggy MCU films.
In the context of previous known numbers, I feel this one adds very little information, it’s just a result of “IW didn’t have an
bonkers good Wed hold, and IW didn’t have abonkers bad Wed drop.”
I honestly don’t get the disdain that some people here or on reddit seem to have for wide prediction ranges. A range should be no wider than is needed to reflect the true uncertainty that someone has — but also no narrower.
If you think that a movie could reasonably open as low as 130 or as high as 170, then just put 130-170. 110-190 would be stupid and dishonest because it tells people that some numbers are plausible that you don’t actually believe are. But giving a range of 145-155 would also be stupid and dishonest. In effect it would be telling people that a bunch of numbers aren’t going to happen that you actually think are quite plausible, just cause you think have a super narrow range is going to make you look smarter or something. There’s nothing smart about giving an unrealistically narrow range.
Doesn’t look great for Panther having a top 5 shot this weekend. Maybe if Rampage loses a lot of theaters, but it’s PTA isn’t that bad and the new releases this week don’t need that many screens.
690 at the end of this week, probably hits over 3.3 for the weekend and then needs a less than 3 multiplier on the 12th weekend to make it. Even with the DVD release it look very good, but I could imagine a world still where it came slightly short.
Edit: I can also imagine a world where it makes a run at Avengers adjusted total, but that’s pretty outlandish still
Passes DH2, 8th.
Passed by IW, 9th.
If it loses to Fallen Kingdom it slides to 10, and then it is impossible for it to share time in the top 10 with Avengers 4 and they have to settle for a mere 40%.