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Cooper Legion

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Everything posted by Cooper Legion

  1. Cooper Legion
    Most interesting number this week always one of the last that we get
  2. Cooper Legion
    Easy triple-digit-millions DOM Sat is C O N F I R M E D
  3. Cooper Legion
    Barely above Peter Rabbit, what a flop
  4. Cooper Legion
    That’s just science. Really looking forward to those 60.3M previews for A4 (actually this is not that insane, if it acts sort of like DH2).
  5. Cooper Legion
    What does the top 5 OD admissions look like, for context?
  6. Cooper Legion
    Enter, stage left: Puerto Rico
  7. Cooper Legion
    Only needs a 6% increase over adjusted PTA? Basically locked
  8. Cooper Legion
    Are updates to that number over? Fricking 65 ticket difference is insane.
  9. Cooper Legion
    3rd largest ever and the C R U M B L I N G gifs will flow. Even though it would be good for a top 5 adjusted OW as well.
  10. Cooper Legion
    @MovieMan89
  11. Cooper Legion
    I’m IN your club in spirit, @MovieMan89. Now we can fail together (More seriously, I would be in for a top 5 club, if clubs for 11th weekends were allowed)
  12. Cooper Legion
    Yeah, definitely a hugely important variable. I know Cinderella lost 30% of its theaters on AoU weekend but dropped 1% partially off of drive-in double features, but I think between the weather and the week earlier IW might have fewer drive-ins. On the other hand, there’s a lot more reason to see Black Panther alongside IW than Cinderella alongside Ultron — if even .5% of people seeing IW over the weekend decided to go to a Panther showing right before it would have a humongous impact.
  13. Cooper Legion
    Not totally impossible for BP to be around 4M next weekend and slightly edge out Blockers, RPO, ToD, ST2 for top 5. Not what I would predict, but the drops involved aren’t totally unreasonable.
  14. Cooper Legion
    The 4.6 estimate was kind of farcical, but this is .03 higher than even my estimate. Very nice weekend drop. Might actually edge out Fatal Attraction now to be in the top 25 of 10th weekends.
  15. Cooper Legion
    Am I converting correctly that the top end in this quote is $18.8M USD? It would already be the 6th highest Hollywood movie after opening Sunday in that case?
  16. Cooper Legion
    So this will be near 120% of Ultron’s presales tickets? Looks like the exchange rate is very close to late April 2015. What’s the possibility of a slightly leggier run and passing 100M USD?
  17. Cooper Legion
    Actuals are very likely to be above the estimates, at least domestically, though that's only worth another couple thousand. If it needs 17.5 more for DH2 then it seems very in reach to me. Something like 2.5 OS and 15M DOM is only a 4x multiplier from this weekend, which is generally very doable for movies with late legs like Panther. Ultimately a lot still rides on the reaction to IW domestically.
  18. Cooper Legion
    More like bummer, am I right? I have appreciated your opinions in addition to your raw numbers, even when I did not fully agree with them. I think it’s safe to say that that quote represents a minority opinion, but I hope that whatever way you interact with the forums moving forward works well for you.
  19. Cooper Legion
    Panther had the 26th best 9th weekend, and amusingly 4.9M (same Sat and Sun % as last weekend) would get it the 26th best 10th as well. Movies this century with approximately similar 10th weekend numbers are Lincoln (5x multi off the weekend, complicated by 10th of wide release being a 4-day), The Blind Side (over 6x multi off the weekend), and Jumanji (~4x multi off the weekend). BP would need a 4.88 or so, so it could just barely get there if people did a lot of DIY double features, or fall bout a half dozen short if the theater losses are too great to overcome. Right now I’d guess quite close to 696.9
  20. Cooper Legion
    Dug a little deeper, Frozen and ET also made it (honestly I was quite surprised to see daily data for ET at all). Think Panther might be 5th though.
  21. Cooper Legion
    +10% from Wednesday and down only 11% from last Thursday. Between the lack of strong new releases and this being the last weekend before IW I wonder if we could see a 4.5M weekend or better. Also this makes it look look like BP will spend 66 days before falling below 500k, wonder if that makes top 3. Edit: Nope, looks like that is behind Frozen (73 days), ET (89 days), Avatar (94), and Titanic (a wholly unreasonable 122 days spent closer to 1M than to 0).
  22. Cooper Legion
    Only 11 minutes longer, at 2:29.
  23. Cooper Legion
    Alright, excellent. I found some other sources that suggest the total presales tend to be near 40% Thursday, so I think you’re exactly correct that the earlier wave was more Thursday heavy and the intermediate drip of this week is more evenly spread out in comparison. Also, I suspect you want 8.23% or .0823, not .0823%
  24. Cooper Legion
    Okay, based on Deepwang’s detailed presales breakdown for Ultron, CW, Gotg2, Ragnarok, and BP, it seems that around 40% of tickets sold by now might be for opening night, which would be $20M of Thursday sales in the bank one week out. I definitely smell a 40M+ Thursday. It it looks like TFA also had about 40% of presales on Thursday.
  25. Cooper Legion
    Wonderful data. Would you be able to see what percent of fandango presales (over a decent period of time) are for Thursday specifically?
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