Cooper Legion

Dec 23 Puss 19.6% A2 30th 24.9% (+27%) 6th 29.5% (+18%) 13th 44.1% (+49%) 5th est* 61% (+38%) 5th wknd % +211% from OW, ~33% avg growth per week still — would lead to crossing the streams in 2 weeks, feb 3rd-5th. Still thinking SB weekend though — next wknd maybe 11/15 for ~71%, then 9/11 (82%) then crossing ~7.5 with SB. *12.5/20.5

I’ve got more 12-13 this wknd for 190-200ish but with the leggy ones like this it’s hard to pin down until late.

I am thinking near 10M open sends missing to 30+ total which is a pretty small fall in tickets. Very nice.

I mean the flip side to the point about not bailing on a theater (or PVOD) movie midway because of upfront costs/commitment is — often times the alternatives to “watch a movie on svod” is not “watch it in theater” but instead “never start that movie at all.”

PVOD is different than SVOD to be sure, just saying it complicates a “cinema exclusive ->event potential, available at home -> no event potential” narrative. The sort of availability matters — cost, timing, subscriber base size, etc, In fact I suspect that the digital availability has helped puss at the box office some by letting positive wom spread more, especially on social media with more clips and gifs available to discuss and praise.

Hmm, going to have to disagree with this pretty strongly. I agree that Disney's distribution has been hurtful the brand some at the BO, but Puss has been available at home for weeks. Quality is the key to being an event regardless of release mode. I mean heck, in Encanto's case it was a non-event in theaters and only became an event when they put it on svod.

Comscore saw puss going below OW and decided 'twas nobler to shut down

Honestly, the th boosts do make me more interested in holdover Fris than usual (even if the default presumption is just that they follow regular fri/wed patterns)

Man this thread is dead. Hopefully missing explodes.

The real movie heading for 695-725 is in number 2 this wknd -- just gotta pull one more over OW, for the fans

Am curious to see to what degree Otto can Upside

You know, hadn’t even occurred to me but that’s an interesting angle. Of Mystery movie gross was rolled in (not sure if we even have precedent?) then the fri/th could look gnarly from a POV that didn’t account for that. So we will see how it shakes out.

Strong start! Very interested to see the IM but feeling like I was too low.

Just waiting on the katniss show report to see how bad whale will go Feel like Whitney shouldn’t be too bad in terms of volatility here with a decent volume hold in the face of minimal openers. Also, Jesus Christ was I boring this wknd — looks like the biggest deviation from the avg is 49 vs 55 on Houston

I mean, you don't know until you know. Not very helpful but that's the dynamic at the end of the day. As Datpepper and m37 have also said just recently, leases being rejectied is often just a part of the renegotiation process rather than a sign of imminent true closure... but if renegotiation attempts fail too much, eventually the rejection as a maneuver becomes actually losing the property. It may depend a lot on whether there are any other businesses that think they can turn a big profit on the same land which is a murky thing to predict.

I am, actually. And I don't appreciate the tone of that 2nd paragraph when we are just disagreeing about numbericsl analysis without anything even resembling bad behavior. As my final word I would say -- to the extent there are parts of your model which suggest 16 is even remotely plausible, you could probably improve your accuracy for this movie by further downweighting those components. But I don't expect you to do so so we can just wait for the proof in the pudding

Yeah this is the 2nd round of regal closure "news" and most locations from the earlier one remain open. It's not false per se but it's usually maybes where the maybe part gets lost in a game of media telephone.

No, making reasonable projections is not how expectations get out of hand, to be honest. But it’s not! But there is! I am keeping perspective 🤷‍♂️ Bullish predictions would be like 28. I have often emphasized the bearish side (22ish)

I mean, fwiw, if you exclude BP entirely as a comparison than my prediction would change from 25-26 to... 25-26. If you focus very heavily on Thor and DS2 (which is not really justified imo) then it looks more like 22-23. These teen stuff is just not really on the table with this start unless something goes pretty unusually wrong -- certainly I cannot see a way to describe even 17 as fairly reasonable, regardless of comp choice.

I mean, not really though 👀. Don't love the puss wed but let's see how Sat goes

#7 as well, we have cracked the GA code

16 is impossible. I would bet like $5k for a $10 return.

Tl;dr at bottom As a reminder, some movies from last time (a few starts are updated slightly to more refined ests): And the main movies which we might want to additionally rope in are Thor and DS2, but just for amusement/thoroughness let’s see how NWH looks out before throwing it away. Going to include what the old formula would suggest from these starts to get a quick sense of how much it breaks down for out of bounds values: *insert not great not terrible here* okay, but for curiosity — how tightly did it fit the original 5 anyway 🤔 Avg abs error of ~9.2 for the big 3 vs 9.65 for the small medium stuff, with nothing as bad as the 2 bad smalls. Now of course we have a clear explanation for BW, which is why I’m going to take it out eventually — there was capacity ceilings/lingering covid regulations when PS began, and they were lifted before actual previews (Canada wasn’t even fully lifted but it probably had the final/d1 even more inflated by the restriction easing timing than usa). As for Eternals, the horrible reception was a big part of the problem, especially as compared to expectations when PS started. It is interesting, though at such a small sample can’t really call it more than that, that the next two underperformers were the B+s, though not doing quite as poorly as the flat B. Notably DS2 and Thor missed the old formula by pretty similar margins despite the “story event fan base factor” and this does not surprise me too much. Which is not to say that such considerations aren’t real, or don’t have a real effect in the ratio. It is just to say that the effect is mediated in large part by the size of the D1 gross! DS2 D1 was bigger than if it wasn’t a story event, and so based on d1 size we predict a lower ratio than if it wasn’t, and we indeed get a lower ratio than if it wasn’t. And honestly fairly eyebrow raising how the 4 A or higher movies here fit a remarkably tight trend despite spanning from a .82 start to 17.9M — a 22x difference in size. So, one thing you could do would be look at the relationship for just the A(+)movies — this is essentially identical to the pre-processed one and will send 3.7 to ~25.5M or so. The you could say “in case of B+ish, 12% lower” (22.5) and if you think it’s about 50/50 to be A or B+ split the difference (24ish). However let’s try including Thor and DS2 anyway and figuring that it’ll capture some degree of variation across possible receptions for us (the strong reception case will probably be a smidge, some couple % points, above the primary result then). Anyway here’s the trend for all 8: 8 excluding the 2 outliers vis a vis the relationship (BW and et): Further excluding the two largest outliers in start size (sc and NWH): And only A(+)s: Anyway, personally I prefer the last of these, which would suggest from 3.7M, 25.8M. But for sake of conservatism/using more data points including Thor and DS2, could use the 2nd one which suggest 25.1M. That would be a ratio of 6.77, so more like geomean BP2 and Et than BP2 and A2. Here’s how that performs retrospectively: I think there’s very little value in the BW and Et comps, and my official forecasts off 24h data is: If good reception: 80% chance 22-28.5 (point forecast 25) If more DS2/Thor reception: 80% chance 19.5-25 (point forecast 22) TL;dr The relationship actually seems about as valid for 3.7 as for 1.8 so I didn’t really change the number much 😛 Still on the over for 25 unless reception is bad, in which case knock 10%ish

Well, with the last update from keyser I think we have about as good data for est first 24 hr as we’re ever gonna get, and it came out to ~3.7. Plugging into the handy dandy pre-processed formula, we get — 25.9M. Thank you everyone, congrats Paul Rudd on a higher start than BP1, you can all relax and go home now … … …