Unclear who one would calculate an interest out of those who were a no on awareness. I mean I guess you I can immediately provide a description or play a trailer during the polling, but the latter takes a while and the former introducing an unpleasant amount of variance to the interest score via exactly how you craft the description provided.
Anyway, quorum is just VERY imprecise. If it’s your only data available to predict off your ranges are going to be like “good chance 70-140 (no guarantee though).”
That’s fine, sometimes that’s better than nothing, but the idea that it has a ways to go for 76 to be safe is detached from the reality of the situation, just reading more into one specific (noisy) indicator than can actually be read.