Cooper Legion

Why in the world is Wonder Woman back as a topic? It was fine, nothing really that bad aside from the third act and nothing that special aside from finally providing some big superhero movie representation for female title characters and good DCEU movies.

Yup. If I had to predict where things stood considering all 2016-2019 movies, maybe like 50M non-Disney and 1700M Disney.

Total Money beyond the 400M mark made by non-Disney films, 2016 onward: 17M Total Money beyond the 400M mark made by Disney films, 2016 onward: 1130M Movies this decade with with something of a chance to increase the former number: Fallen Kingdom, Far From Home, WW84, Jumanji 3,... SLOP2? Let me know if I’m missing any Movies this decade with at least something of a chance to increase the latter number: I2 (I only added 7M from it, will contribute at least 120 more), IW (maybe 8M more), Poppins?, Captain Marvel?, Aladdin?, Avengers 4, TS4, TLK, IX, Frozen 2

There’s some more mature stuff in BP that younger kids might just miss or not fully appreciate. I deliberately ordered those 3 from most to least kid-friendly. It’s not nearly as poor a match as IW though, imo.

Extreme cold is obviously better than extreme heat, don’t even think there’s much question there. JW2 looks to be holding a bit better than I expected, and I2 a bit worse, but I think it will still clear a 3.15 multi. Everyone seems to be talking about AM&TW double features from a purely financial perspective, but there’s also the matter of audience overlap suitability. AM&TW is a fun family/kid friendly movie that you can take your 8 year old too. It could be appropriately paired with I2, Solo, or BP. IW not so much.

Yeah, those IW, Solo, and I2 weekends were so boring.

Sicario will only need a few million dollars to push Brolin past 1B this summer, so it doesn’t really matter if it collapses

So, at a very casual analysis, IW's last 2 weeks have been running about 133% of JW's, and JW made 15.5 more, and 133% of 15.5 would be 20.7 more for 691.8. However, of that 15.5M that JW made, something like 10M of it is attributable to the Labor Day reexpansion, which IW won't have anything similar too. More realistically if it does some 150% of JW's "natural" run from here that would be maybe 9M for a 680 finish. 19M more off fa 4M weekend just isn't happening without some kind of large, specific, unexpected circumstance.

Also just watched The Prestige for the first time, absolutely unspoiled about everything. Another Christopher Nolan movie that has a really promising first 3/4s but introduces/dials up some magical nonsense and fails to stick the landing (Inception worked a lot better than Prestige and Interstellar though). Edit: Also, holy Christ, that movie was jam packed with actors from superhero movies. In addition to Batman, Wolverine, Alfred, and Black Widow it even had Klaue and Maya Hansen.

I thought Wind River was pretty great, Hell or High Water too, yet to see the Sicarios.

40 for I2 would be Still, not really going to pay attention to anything until we have reliable Fri numbers.

Nearly identical WW-China 34% drop, but TLJ was about -65% in China and FK will be +10% or so.

Wouldn’t be surprised if I2 gets the bulk of AM&tW double features either, given the tonal fit (and the fact that WiT doesn’t need anymore 😛).

What wasn’t?

Yeah, JWFK is just about the only big movie this year that tracking really nailed -- BP, IW, and I2 went above theirs, DP and Solo below, but FK landed right in the window of long and short term tracking. That's part of why you saw a lot of people describing it as medium, imo.

Applying the smallest of the 4 threequel bumps (IW, lol) would get it to 197.4 Now there are a few totally reasonable arguments why it might set a new record low threequel bump. It's not like the current sample size is super big. But the numbers are pretty clear there for it, historically.

Oh, IX is another strong contender depending upon reception. GotG2 wasn't that great, but neither was Iron Man 2, Thor 2, or Avengers 2 -- the movies that people will be remembering then from more will be Infinity War and Avengers: Far From Title Announcement

Really, not anywhere near? GotG2 did 146, so 3 should be looking at 150+ almost certainly. This'll be their first movie after featuring in a pair of Avengers movies, so it should see a healthy bump, and it would only need a 36.5% increase to hit 200. I wouldn't actually say it's favored, but it should be decently close.

GotG3

Cassie is my favorite character, as with the last one. Going to be so cool when she finally starts to be Stature after we've seen like 10 years pass for the character onscreen.

Like the handling of Ghost, Goliath, and Janet, hope we see more of all of them moving forward. Was expecting 1-2 characters dusted, not 3, but I guess that explains why no one but Ant-Man has much of an A4 role

Leto honest to god feels like a troll casting. Are we actually expecting this movie to exist? Hopefully not.

Looks to me like I2 will only end up #9 on the domestic chart. A great overall number, but does seems like an OW fueled by superhero fans is leading to more of a (strong) superhero multi than an animated multi.

Wow, 3.6 below early estimates

Props to JW, it’s holding better than I thought and should pass the original with a very healthy multi. IW should pass 2390 but not 2400, right? A bit bittersweet, but at least the 23 poster is the perfect ending.