Joyous Legion

I think it will settle at 95-96, already 97.5ish so just .5 more drop gets to 96 displayed and that is about where the last 1250 reviews have been (vs 98.5+ for first half).

Perhaps we could get this pinned or something though it’s not like it’s hard for me to find again via search 😛

Does anyone know how egg is rounded? I think it’s at 1054/1069=98.597, so pretty far from dropping to 97 (unless it does so at 97.99) Edit: now 1174/1189=98.74. Clearly they round down instead of nearest but still much closer to 99 than 97 for now. Let’s see more by mid Sunday-ish how things have settled down but conditions are here to make a run for Elemental+ if things break well.

Speaking of, egg at 98 for now

Cheaper than the first in real dollars, pretty good

I’m keeping my hopes in check until we see scores. Might be good to shake some rust off before DP3 though, hopefully that can pull some solid HW numbers as well

Yes much like F1 vs F2

Just need 97+ egg and we are rocking and rolling. May be first SK dailies/hourlies I look at in long time

So Apes keeps top summer OW for now. Would be cool progression if IO2 could pass 2x Apes and then DP > 3x Apes

Sure, I think it’s fair to say that 90s wasn’t an unreasonable prediction given info at the time. Was on 90s for quite a while. I just wanted to be clear that the ultimate goal at the end of the day is actually predicting what it will open to since it seemed like there was some sentiment to the contrary. Perhaps I misunderstood

Yes, it is. Sure, true — compare it in an attempt to forecast what the ow will ultimately be! Sure, true. It would be boring for spectators if forecast were more reliable. But that doesn’t mean the goal from the forecasting side isn’t being maximally reliable.

Soul was top top, elemental was pretty great, but then you have Luca and TR were like good, and then LY… very reasonable to talk about a “return to form” when you look at the last dozens movies vs their 90s &00s output

Tracking is literally intended to be a prediction of the final ow. That it’s not the final prediction of the eventual ow doesn’t excuse misses That said we’ve known industry tracking is a joke for all 6+ years I’ve been here so not really sure why it keeps getting discussed 😆

Gotta beat KFP by sun or flop 😛

First time ever seeing this thread. Those folks in 2011-2013 didn’t know how good they had it…

Made a minor update in my private sheet, might as well share I guess. Not much changed, still far out, still high uncertainty T-46 Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix Thursday Preview Gross Range $30.00 $31.25 $32.50 $33.75 $35.00 $36.25 $37.50 $38.75 $40.00 Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM) 4.825 $144.75 $150.78 $156.81 $162.84 $168.88 $174.91 $180.94 $186.97 $193.00 4.9 $147.00 $153.13 $159.25 $165.38 $171.50 $177.63 $183.75 $189.88 $196.00 4.975 $149.25 $155.47 $161.69 $167.91 $174.13 $180.34 $186.56 $192.78 $199.00 5.05 $151.50 $157.81 $164.13 $170.44 $176.75 $183.06 $189.38 $195.69 $202.00 5.125 $153.75 $160.16 $166.56 $172.97 $179.38 $185.78 $192.19 $198.59 $205.00 5.2 $156.00 $162.50 $169.00 $175.50 $182.00 $188.50 $195.00 $201.50 $208.00 5.275 $158.25 $164.84 $171.44 $178.03 $184.63 $191.22 $197.81 $204.41 $211.00 5.35 $160.50 $167.19 $173.88 $180.56 $187.25 $193.94 $200.63 $207.31 $214.00 5.425 $162.75 $169.53 $176.31 $183.09 $189.88 $196.66 $203.44 $210.22 $217.00

It’s been dire overall since last Aug. Only one movie clearly past 20M tickets since Barbenheimer (Wonka right on the line tbf) and even that only got to ~25M. It’s very understandable why people are gloomy with that backdrop. June and July should finally have some big hits though so that’ll be nice while it lasts

Large majority of people tbh. Excellent employment levels, wages outpacing inflation particularly for lower income levels. Strong real consumption growth, real gdp growth, productivity, etc. Biggest macro problem right now is anti-housing regulations stifling construction leading to high home prices. That +high interest rates combine for a particular issue for those looking to buy new homes though interest rates will be coming down soon

Exactly — people think it’s bad but it’s actually extremely good right now

49.99: year of cinema collapse continues 50.01: Teflon Will saves BO for all time

That schedule is leaning hard on thunderbolts and MI, either of which could do pretty solid but no sure thing. Maybe Ballerina does pretty nice too but I’m not sure how far the wickverse will go without , you know, wick.

To bring things back to weekend prognostication a bit I think there is something to sports impacting the preview walk ups a bit given demos and I am still thinking mid high 50s possible esp with what looks like very solid reception. Hope to wake up to s nice true Fri outlook

We aren’t really arguing about different “viewpoints” or “feelings” though. The question of “does Charlie consistently overestimate in initial preview tweets, or are errors about 50/50” is a pretty cold hard numerical objective matter and the answer is about 50/50. That’s not some opinion of mine it’s just the record of reality. You can check it. Anyone who’s curious can check it. It’s just that you didn’t do so, which is mostly what annoyed me about the whole thing

Sorry but this response really doesn’t show much except that you don’t really understand how to judge whether predictions are good or not. Obviously it’s not 0% error every time, but modest errors balanced in direction is pretty much gold standard. He isn’t “above criticism” but your criticism involved some factual claims that just weren’t and that deserves some pushback as well