charlie Jatinder

Guess they weren't getting MGs then.

Ok this is very famous method of releasing in India. Theaters mostly independent ones, are required to pay MG to the distributor for releasing the film. Exhibitor will only earn when the film cross that MG mark. Big chains, well they have leverage over studio due to their size, so they don't have to pay any such numbers. There shouldn't be impact on pre-sales as majority business I suppose is from national chains. Unless independent chains have unity to say NO to the model and they can make leverage in unity, which rarely happens and in doing so they don't screen 800.

Waiting for everyone to freakout when New Mutants is 85% plus on Rotten Tomatoes.

Harry Potter T-2 Days Friday: ¥7.6mn (+¥1.58mn) on 28.2k shows (Est.) Saturday: ¥2.33mn (+¥500k) on 12k shows Sunday: ¥1.12mn (+¥240k) on 5.6k shows Total: ¥11.05mn (+¥2.28mn) Projections https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14veIao3B3dsFN11hxTEdpCgqkrdb9fq2PX3HiNH060s/edit?usp=drivesdk Average day but donno how much adjustment Maoyan need. No change in OD protection though.

180k Tuesday.

The Eight Hundred previews pre-sales quite good. OD sales open as well, will cross ¥1mn today.

UK is just problem with Mojo chart. Its fine.

After all corrections, Potter 1 admits are around 180mn and inflation & ER adjusted gross of $1.72 Billion. Added a separate column, as to if HP 1 had Titanic exchange rates and ticket rates, it would have done $800mn overseas as compared to $663mn it did originally in 2001. Poor Potter.

Ah shit. I was reading it other way around $1=€0.9. That will make a whole lot of sense.

What a shitty day. Only ¥640k so far. Expectations were ¥1.7-1.8mn atleast. Unless Maoyan was faulty throughout day and get normalise during night. Edit: Speak of the devil. The moment of posting this Maoyan jump by ¥50k.

So films are played with 3 months license now. Lol. From you can't play more than 4 weeks to this. China's rule of playing just 4 weeks led the box office community freak worldwide last year for two months, "Will Endgame beat Avatar or not".

yes.

Yeah but thing is that no matter what Mojo database say overseas territory number is, the overall total has the correct total. In Potter case, the overall total seems to be wrong if we add the known individual markets gross. The link I shared above seems like what Mojo received from official levels and figures sure are different than what they are in their database. I figure these numbers are till January 6th going by the UK gross. http://web.archive.org/web/20020207054619/http://www.boxofficemojo.com:80/intl/data/harrypotter.htm

So I found this. This seems like numbers till mid January. I don't know if Warner even officially announced the worldwide numbers but Mojo numbers are definitely fucked up. http://web.archive.org/web/20040615203725/http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/data/harrypotter.htm Going by this, the smaller Asian and Latin America countries, which I will just put in Rest did atleast $25mn, so Potter is already a billion dollar grosser mates. Let's see if Warner adjust their numbers after China re-release.

We need to take in account that Potter despite being #2 was about half of Titanic and we had Jurassic Park around similar numbers 8 years earlier.

Weird thing happened. I filled the European grosses like Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Poland, etc estimated from Europe admits for Harry Potter, which aren't on Mojo & Mojo has numbers of UK, Germany, Spain, Netherlands way low than the numbers reported. e.g. Germany gross is €75.6mn, which should be $86mn but Mojo only has $67mn. Similarly Spain is €28mn, should be $31mn but Mojo has it at $24.5mn. Similarily UK GBP66mn, should be $96mn but they have it at only $84mn. I suspect same in France but I don't have EUR gross to confirm this. So after correcting them. I found that International gross is underreported. I won't be surprised if Potter is already $995-1005mn Approx. Also due to filling the data of European countries now, the admits are around 168mn Approx, but I am assuming $1000mn gross worldwide. @peludo what you say about European grosses being wrong. Edit: Japan number should be $158mn, so $996mn coming. Hopefully on Friday Warner announce Billion Dollar.

I think Top 2 or using rank is bit iffish. E.g. Number 2nd film in 2014 was Hunger Games 2 at $337mn, doesn't mean it would have done $540mn in 2019 or $678mn in 2018. LoTR 3 released in better ERs than Potter and FoTK, so perhaps if ER weren't that shit in 2001, Potter and FoTK could have been #2. Regarding China thing, am adding $150-175mn or so for China for market expansion. Say another $125-150mn for Asia and Latin America. -$50-100mn in Europe and Japan, we are looking at $1.8-1.9 Billion ish for Potter and LoTR 3. I mean final Potter did just $124mn in Japan. Potter 1 had 57mn admits in EU while DH 2 around 36mn. DH 2 is good measure to see how Potter 1 would have grown in Asia and Latin America, and go down in mature markets and DH 2 growth came from series of films in Asia and Latin America. Not sure how HP as first film of franchise released today would have done.

Is Umbrella Academy actually good or just Netflix hype Machine? I stopped flix subscription so will have to download it.

Aw man. Just woke up. Unlikely I will be make for it. That 9PM PST time was better. Enjoy y'all.

Tuesday look like 200-210k again. Pretty good hold. First 7 day will be 2.43-2.44mn. 2nd 7 days could be -10% or better due to Holidays. 6mn is certainly happening. @imbruglia can shed light on director/actor track record or the film buzz overall before release.

RoTK will be below Potter. The ER were shit in November 2001 than December 2003. Both Potter and RoTK had same Admits but HP will have advantage in Gross as it did big in Japan and Japan ER was horrible. $164mn of HP adjust to $215mn today but $95mn of LoTR3 is only $108mn. Similarly UK, $108mn of LoTR3 is $127mn today while $94mn of HP is $146mn. Regarding China, 1st Hobbit did ¥316mn in 2012 & last did ¥761mn in 2014. There isn't much growth in how big an individual film go since 2015 if we see, so guess LoTR films could be around ¥1.25-1.3Bn but then I think Aquaman did ¥2Bn, so who knows... After thinking about Aquaman and Venom, I guess Potter may be also can do better, but again... .

Yeah I forget China but then Europe may have some downfall and China perhaps $200mn range. I mean The Lost World did ¥72mn in 1997 and Potter did ¥56mn in 2002. Jurassic films now do $250mn range, so Potter perhaps $180mn. Another comparison is perhaps DH2 (¥402mn) vs Transformers 4 ¥1020mn. Today a Transformer level film will be perhaps do around ¥3-3.25B. so 40% of that around ¥1.2B. But then HP Dh2 had finale factor, best Potter number before that were ¥156mn. Having that +$160mn. A bit smaller Europe & Japan, I guess $1.85-1.9 Billion.

Well we had Endgame release date just 11 days early along with pre-sales, so let' see.

I thought may be China re-release could take Potter around 200mn admits, but it will fall short. by a quite. In best case scenario I expect 10mn admits from China, which will take it to 190mn only. Also, we all wonder how much will be Potter adjusted to today time to time. Well $1.72 Billion just for inflation and exchange rate adjustment. However, due to market growth, I think Potter could have done $1.9-2 Billion.