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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer
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Black Widow Overseas Thread.
Menor the Destroyer replied to charlie Jatinder's topic in International Box Office
That seems quite low. I mean $750m is probably what Doctor Strange would have done in 2020, and that had way less buzz than BW does right now. $350 million DOM $180 million China (trailer did disproportionately well there and seems to have a lot more buzz than say Captain Marvel) $450 million Rest is what I'm thinking. -
Box Office Theory's Most Anticipated Films
Menor the Destroyer replied to AniNate's topic in The Speakeasy
1. Eternals 2. Black Widow 3. Rise of Skywalker 4. Wonder Woman 1984 5. Soul 6. Onward 7. Godzilla v Kong 8. Cats 9. Tenet 10. Artemis Fowl -
The Mandalorian | March 2023 for S3
Menor the Destroyer replied to Fullbuster's topic in Streaming, TV Series, & VOD Movies
I think because Bane got knocked down and as far as we know didn't have any beskar, he likely died. But who knows, Bane was pretty cunning and might have hidden something in that hat. Getting back on topic, the only problem I have with the theory that it's Moff Gideon is that the figure appeared to be alone (Granted we don't get much of a shot), and it seems unlikely that an Imperial official would do his own dirty work. I'm thinking it's more likely to be either Boba or Cobb. -
The Mandalorian | March 2023 for S3
Menor the Destroyer replied to Fullbuster's topic in Streaming, TV Series, & VOD Movies
My irrational hope is Cad Bane...I don't think he's canonically dead right? Or is that unfinished ep canon still? -
The Mandalorian | March 2023 for S3
Menor the Destroyer replied to Fullbuster's topic in Streaming, TV Series, & VOD Movies
But if it's just that, then why put emphasis on it in the final shot? This show is starting to feel a lot like TCW with the side quests and not really worrying too much about the main plotline. I'm kinda digging that vibe (other than episode 2). As long as the individual episodes are engaging enough, it's nice. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Yeah I tried to account for those factors (also missing non-reserved theaters) by giving a more generous estimate. But while non-reserved theaters are easy to account for the ratio it's hard to factor in sellouts. So the estimated number could be off but in general I think the main point that it's running behind TLJ, but not by that much, is still true. Agreed that a Wang number will be very helpful. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
I wouldn't worry too much for the OW if it comes in lower. Pre-holiday weekends don't lend themselves to high walkups so I don't think the internal multi will be that high. Once we get the opening 10 days we can really see where it'll land (just like with F2). -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
I guess it should be at ~$18 million for MTC1 roughly (well, depending on the sellouts too, but this is already definitely a higher number). That is 61% of Endgame at the same point. TLJ was at $22.8 million at T-8 and finished at $36 million. TROS shouldn't end up too far from that, though I think it will come in below unless final week comes in huge. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
He was definitely too extreme but SW skews a bit older than a lot of other mega blockbuster franchises. Not to the extent he was saying but for example Avengers tends to average about 50/50 split for O/U 25, while SW is in the 60-70% over 25 range for opening weekend. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Yeah, but this year sees the end of SW Saga, Avengers (for now), Disney has done its biggest remake, idk if future JW films will be able to improve from Fallen Kingdom. Avatar most likely isn't doing 200 million OW in December, it's not that type of film. That leaves Black Panther 2 as the next likely 200 million opener I guess? I don't know if opening inflation can counteract the decline in IP. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Damn, comps going down on day 3 of ps is not a great sign. This needs a big time final week and walkups. -
Trailer killing it on Twitter, will finish with about 42 million views from the main channels on YT/FB/Twitter, on par with CM's 24 hours number for main channels. But just from rough recollection reupload views seem lower than CM had, so I think it might touch 100 million but not 109 million of CM's teaser (although some of this depends on Chinese social media for which I don't know the comps). Overall, the trailer has performed very strongly (stronger than I expected), and any thought of a mini-Solo or tepid performance should be dismissed. 1 billion? Well, it's still probably too early to say. Edit: But absolutely crushing CM's performance on IG main channel 11 million views to just 2 million. So perhaps it can surpass 109 million.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Yeah, these aren't just bad Day 2 numbers, these are bad T-10 numbers. And that without much of a cushion beforehand.