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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt Imo this akvalley link should also be on the first post of this thread, it's loaded with good info
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    Judging by the Fandango numbers today Endgame looks to be headed for a significantly better Thursday hold than Wick or Pikachu, see if the trend continues into the night though
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    I don't think $10 million will happen. Even the best indicators for this (Fandango/MT numbers) don't point to that high. If it somehow did hit that, then we'd be looking at something like a 100+ 3-day probably, not 80.
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    I would think the past couple of years should teach people not to rule out MCU movies so early in the game...
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    Deadline will drop an estimate in a few hours probably, although they're a little irregular with their timing. It'll be a range anyway, so probably not that useful
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah now that I realized the Fandango data is cumulative I'm upping to $6.5-7 million previews/$75 million 3-day, $90ish million 4-day. And 6.5 seems quite doable from the 21526 it's currently sold on Pulse for today with several hours left to go (compared to 64k total for Incredibles 2), could go higher.
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    Didn't realize that the daily split Pulse counts were from the end of weekend instead of pausing after Thursday. I take back my prediction of the internal multi, probably will end up higher than I2
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    I'm going with 9-9.5 because that's what presales seem to suggest compared to I2 (extrapolating for the extra day until exact comps can be made to Incredibles 2/others). Maybe Aladdin will be more walkup heavy though, but I feel like an animated film has many walkups, even an anticipated one like I2. The Sunday may skew things higher though
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    Thing is, these 90s Disney adaptations have a heavy fanbase by default because people watched them as a kid and are nostalgic. That's why Jungle Book and Dumbo have preview multipliers in the 20s because they play as family films, while BATB and probably Aladdin will have theirs closer to 10 (I am expecting 9-9.5 for Aladdin).
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    Ah, forgot about the unusual Sunday. The reason I was saying that at first was because it looks like the presale split of previews vs ow will be worse than Incredibles 2, which would point to a worse internal multiplier. But with the low Sunday drop it could potentially make it.
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    I will add to this I don't see Aladdin even getting to 70 for the 3-day based on Fandango right now unless it is significantly more walkup based than Incredibles 2 (which seems pretty unlikely), or if previews come in significantly higher than Sacramento predicts (which also seems unlikely)
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    I also looked through the Fandango historical data for the daily splits and put a few movies in a spreadsheet to compare with Aladdin. Much like @EconomySize found it seems that Incredibles 2 has the most similar ratios, but even that seems to be somewhat less preview-heavy than Aladdin. Unless things drastically improve for its ratio today, I can't see higher than a 10x preview multiplier, which from @Porthos prediction of 7.25 would give a 72.5 million 3-day, probably leading to a 4-day in the high 80s, and that's assuming that its ratio improves significantly from today. If anyone wants to see for themselves, here is the list I compiled: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1N42mKLQ5mpTvLeCc4D3VHI0QNcoI6--8dXSM9fssi3w/edit?usp=sharing
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    Very odd discrepancy between Fandango and a lot of folks here. Possibly it's bc people here are mostly tracking Thurs, so perhaps Aladdin will have a relatively weak Thursday but a really strong internal multiplier
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    The 85% was from only a few reviews, it quickly dropped into the 60s and from there it's not all that big a drop
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    Hmm...these reviews aren't amazing but they certainly aren't bad enough for the embargo to drop this late. Very odd decision and the marketing for this has been shit across the board.
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    I think EG will possibly fall below IW on Thursday, but judging from its great performance on Victoria Day and the Sunday before that it seems like there is a runtime effect with demand shifting to weekends/holidays, so I think its 4-day will be above IW, and if it can keep pace through the next week or two it'll start benefiting from summer weekdays and should be good for 850+
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    A lot of people think Aladdin will be bad/meh and that is definitely hurting it's potential, if reviews are good (which seems possible) it was a really stupid move to hold the embargo back even if it does get the 100 million 4-day
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    Higher than that I would think unless it really plays like BATB (which I am not expecting)
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    Reading this thread was the most entertainment I've had all day. YIBAMBE, Menor
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    I used BATB as an example that the live action remakes can be quite presale heavy, not an exact comp. I don't actually think Aladdin will make 55 on its 3 day. However, I do think the floor is lower than what people are saying here. Btw Aladdin will be quite female heavy, not to the extent of BATB but still pretty skewed.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    An Incredibles 2 comp for Monday yields a ~90 million 3-day for Aladdin, I'd say it'll be slightly more ps-heavy than that so maybe 80 million 3-day/100 million 4-day. However, BATB was extremely ps-heavy, if it emulated that then using a Captain Marvel comp we'd get something in the 40s for the 3-day, adjusting for the fact that Captain Marvel was unusally ps heavy even for the MCU maybe more like 55. A Solo comp also yields somewhere around 60. I still think this movie could be a lot more presale-heavy than we would think, based on the performance of BATB, so wouldn't rule out another Memorial Day splat even with decent-looking presales.
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    BATB was more presale heavy than guardians 2. No reason to expect Aladdin to have gigantic walkups imo
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    Love AOTC and the other prequels are my favorite trilogy of all time. They're more personal and interesting than any blockbusters I've ever seen. That scene, the beautiful shots of Anakin on his speeder, the clone army arrival...I never get tired of watching AOTC.
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    Big if though
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    I too think it'll pass Avatar but there are scenarios in which it doesn't, don't use words like "done deal" so lightly
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