AnotherDayAnotherDollar

Simu Liu is trending on twitter. Apparently some old reddit AMA thing popped up and he gave some controversial answers. I am still looking over what the comments were and I won't link anything here, but it's all over twitter.

Straight to streaming?

Let's hope so, but that's not really a high bar lol

It's hard to take opinions like this seriously because of "I think could be a major player in the Oscars next year". Or the guy saying Venom 2 is great and then goes on to say "Sony did it again!".

https://www.resetera.com/threads/venom-let-there-be-carnage-spoiler-thread-the-future-is-bright.486556/ This is the spoiler thread there if anyone wants to read it. Apparently the OP thinks this one is weaker than the first. I mean if that's the case then wow.

So Hardy and Harrelson are carrying the movie. Expected. Hardy carried the first.

Very interesting indeed, especially on losing money in Amazing 2. They do get up to 3.5% from the BO gross from Marvel because of the 2011 merch sale agreement, but even that wasn't enough. Goes to show you that Sony's take on Venom was likely much lower than the 247MM deadline reported. That actually strengthens my position on Sony divesting the unit and doubling down on GN&S.

Very good point about deadline not accounting for the profit being split between the financiers. Venom, for example, was split with Tencent and probably others. I had no idea Sony's take was sliding that bad for SM movies. Makes sense why the 2015 deal happened in the first place. Meanwhile Sony's take in SM 2018 was in the 9 figure using a 20% royalty rate and Sony's own 70% digital to physical media ratio. Same for MM, which will likely hit 10MM sold by the end of this calendar year. Thank you for providing those numbers. Worth noting that Sony killed their live TV service (called Playstation Vue) as well. You are 100% right and I agree with your take.

That's pretty low profit for successful films. I know their numbers for Venom and the SM movies were good from the deadline numbers (not sure the profit of ITTS but I assume 9 figures for it). SIE has had bigger profits from their licensed Spider-Man games than these movies though, and of course, from a lot of first parties like GoW and TLOU since no royalty there. Much better ROI.

Having things of value is not enough if the ROI is in the single digits. Shareholders want good profit margins for their invested capital. I think SPE should sell because it's a poor performing division. I believe the capital spent there would bring better return if spent on GN&S division. I have no other reason to want to see the division divested other than seeing my bank account grow. I don't even think SM is the most important asset SPE has because they can't mine the product in other areas. All merch royalties goes to a direct competitor. We'll see how those Spidey spin offs do. I'm not convinced they'll do as well as you think. Some fans are hyping themselves up because Venom did 850MM. 300MM of that thanks to Tencent who took most of the 25% gross. We'll see how it goes. Fox was unable to form a coherent and good shared universe with much more recognizable characters. DC has been unable to do the same so far. The BEST thing Sony has going for it is that a lot of the GA connects them with the MCU because they see the Marvel name. I digress on talking about franchises. I think they are poor and not sustainable long term. You think otherwise. It's fine. The best thing SPE has is the TV division, but Sony cannot launch a streaming service since they lack scale, which is another reason to divest and double down on gaming that they are dominating. Disruptive services and products like Steam Deck, Gamepass and others can change things quickly as we saw with the Wii. Sony must be ahead of the game there. No pun intended. I'm not the only shareholder who thinks that. Multiple people have called for Sony to spin off the Pictures division. This is nothing new.

Not everything you listed is highly profitable. The ROI is imperative for any division and that's why shareholders have called, more than once, for Sony to spin off SPE. Jumanji has been extremely profitable at the BO the past couple of iterations. I'd assume a third would do extremely well also (if they can retain Johnson and Hart). Not sure about long term viability of the franchise, but I'll give you that it's a big and very profitable franchise for now. The Spidey spin offs (i.e. characters Sony owns the film rights to) have questionable to limited BO appeal. Venom sure was a surprise. China's BO made the BO bigger than I thought it would be. Tencent did an amazing job marketing there. I'm expecting a drop at the BO take for Venom 2, even accounting for covid. Sony is testing the water of the reach of its characters with Morbius. They have also talked about a Madam Web and Aunt May movie, both of which no one wants to watch. I'm dubious on how Morbius will do, especially with no Blade or Midnight Sons connection. Venom has been an uber popular character for awhile. Morbius has not. We'll see how it does. A Jan release date with Jackass coming the week after may hurt its (already limited) potential. RE has never been big at the BO, so that's a non starter. It's a horror movie and it's profitable, but nothing to be excited about. Ghostbuster's last entry bombed badly just a few years ago. We'll have to see how this next one will do with a big Disney movie releasing the week after it. Spider-man NWH will be profit sharing with Disney at 75/25 ratio. Going to be the biggest movie though thanks to the MCU. I have been investing in Sony's ADR when it was still listed as SNE. Don't try to turn this into a last financial year. Sony Pictures has been the redheaded step child for Sony for years and its shortcomings have been hidden by other divisions picking up the slack. Sony has gotten rid of other low performing divisions and I hope they do the same with Pictures. The best thing about SPE is its TV side, not movies.

Bad Boys is okay. Last one did good numbers because we hadn't seen one in over a decade. Doubt they can make that an ongoing franchise. Reminds me of Lethal Weapon or Rush Hour. Jumanji put in the work for the last two movies. Obviously that Rock - Hart combo is lifting the product Uncharted is unproven in the movie world. A game being a huge hit does not equal to a big movie hit. See WoW. Ghostbusters remains to be seen. Last one bombed badly. This one seems to be a lot better, so let's see how it'll do at the BO. A week after it launches it'll have to fight with Encanto for those family $$$$. SPE is also one of Sony's lowest ROI divisions, if not the lowest. There's a reason they wouldn't be able to launch their own streaming service. That money would be better spent doubling down on gaming where they dominate.

A hypothetical Black Widow 2 would star Florence Pugh (who already said she's looking forward to her future in the MCU), not ScarJo. At most ScarJo would cameo in flashbacks, but not necessary. Lawsuit has no bearings in the making a sequel to the movie or not. I think it should be a D+ series though regardless.

At the high end of that prediction it seems pretty decent for Venom 2, does it not? Dropping from the first movie, but expected in a covid world.

I think it looked terrible. Actually let me rephrase that. If you enjoyed the first movie then the trailers looked great and you'll probably enjoy this sequel. If, like me, you thought the first movie sucked then the trailers looked to be more of the same, if not worse.

China doesn't care.

Surprised this model hasn't been talked about to be honest with you. 45 day theatrical exclusive PA after that (14 days or whatever) VOD after that (another 10 days or whatever) Blu Ray and DVD (no one buys them anymore but sure) Free on Disney+ ~ 90-120 days after theatrical debut.

Forgive my ignorance, but what is PS and MTC?

Disney execs are probably looking at two variables here. 1) Do you want to piss off Feige to the point where he might walk like he almost did in 2015 due to not seeing eye to eye with Perlmutter? Feige is the biggest and hottest name in Hollywood. Disney stock would take a hit if he walks away without a transition and a successor. Marvel movies would likely suffer without his guidance as well. We have to remember Feige is big on the theatrical experience, supposedly wanted Black Widow to be theatrical only, and supposedly was pissed at his bosses because of the ScarJo situation. 2) How many people will go to the high seas if they do Option A (theatrical only) vs how many people will go to the high seas if they do Option B (hybrid release)? What's the opportunity cost and the money that each option can cost them and bring them. Option B allows for 4K pristine copies to be available on the web the day of release. A lot of people, including all of China, will be watching a perfect copy of the product for free. If they can't get release dates in China then it may also affect their decisions. Not trying to argue, but looking at it from a business standpoint those are the two outstanding points that Chapek, Bergman, and Kareem Daniel need to look at.

This is absolutely the best case scenario at this point IMO. I would have to think Disney would be extremely happy with 80MM domestic / 400MM WW, let alone 120MM domestic / 500 or 600MM WW.

This movie was more of the same, but not as funny or fresh as the previous one. Rock and KH have great on screen chemistry, no doubt. If you liked the J2 you'll like J3.

Certainly. The reason DC was seen as more popular than Marvel is because of the big budget media presence that it had since the 70s and 80s whereas Marvel was struggling to get things made to the point where they sold it for pennies on the dollar, basically begging studios to make it for them. Just like Feige said that Disney buying them was the best thing that happened to them, Warner buying DC was the best thing that happened to them.