AnotherDayAnotherDollar

O/U 20% RT score when it's all said and done?

So he's okay with August Alsina putting things in his wife, but not okay with Chris Rock talking about his wife?

They simply show that the Marvel name does not guarantee BO success. The situation was different as I mentioned.

Technically it is a Marvel movie and Sony - smartly - is not being shy about it being a Marvel property in their marketing. Though the situation was a bit different being a Marvel property didn't save New Mutants or Dark Phoenix.

One of those has been mentioned in the trailers for 2 years now. Not sure I buy this rumor.

I think I predicted 400MM Domestic, 950MM WW without China and 1.1B with China. Think I'll be short WW and low domestic.

There's little to no chance of DeSantis not being re-elected. Anyone telling you otherwise is either on a bubble or being disingenuous. Disney also holds little to no power on any conversations with him or state officials. At the end of the day we all know Disney can't pick up and move WDW to another state, so they really have no leverage. They can denounce the bill like they did or donate to democrats and not donate to republicans in the state, but if they do the latter they know they'd upset half of their audience too. DeSantis won, albeit barely, in 2018 when it was a very strong Dem year with a very popular mayor of Tallahassee running for the Democrats. 1st black governor of Florida was being heavily pushed and played in the local media. I still remember the countless and countless "Let's bring it home" posters and flyers with Gillum's face plastered all over it everywhere. And even with all that, DeSantis won. Only way DeSantis loses this year is if - before the election - he gets caught ODed on meth with a male gigolo in a hotel room in Miami like Gillum in 2020. Even ignoring that the party in power historically loses the midterms recent polls have DeSantis up anywhere from 6+ to 20+ points. If anyone feels confident that DeSantis will lose then they stand to make a LOT of money by betting on an opponent here. Right now you bet 89C to make a dollar on DeSantis, 8C to make a dollar on Christ, 6C on Fried and the other two you'd just be throwing your money away, even more so than if you bet on Christ or Fried. Likewise, you can just bet completely against him. 11C to make a dollar that anyone but him wins.

With the way SPE is sticking every shit that it throws at the wall lately, 25% RT, 150MM+ Domestic.

This looks absolutely terrible. However I said the same about Venom and Venom 2 and those grossed pretty well, so I wouldn't be surprised if this ended up being a successful film at the BO too.

That's not up to Cameron. Disney owns the IP and the distribution to the product. That said they will try to accommodate his wishes so they don't risk losing the talent. Avatar was front and center on Disney+ not too long ago though, so not sure Jimbo would care about that association.

Illuminerdi is kinda 50/50 so I'd take that with a grain of salt. Wouldn't this have to start shooting soon to make the 01/13/23 date? It's only 10 1/2 months away and AFAIK they haven't started yet.

I would get to watch it early, so definitely Yay.

More people watched the movie.

I agree. Might be wrong, but I think big tentpole movies (i.e. superhero cape flicks, star wars, avatar, dinos, lotr, etc) will be fine, but most others won't. I think multiplex days are counted. I can see drive ins surviving by being niche and movie theaters surviving by providing a true premium experience to the above tentpole movies (for example Batman is coming out and they make the lobby and theater look like Gotham, Strange comes out they make it look and feel like the Sanctum Santorum, etc). My personal anecdote I used to go to the movie theaters 2+ times a week before covid and I recently cancelled my AMC sub because I had only been going for the big movies and passing on the rest. Would those be a hit today though? 2 years, with covid on top of that, is a long time. People's behaviors have changed. That's not to say they can't change back, but I'm not sure they'll be changed back. Plus streamers are spending an exorbitant amount of money. KO2 is going straight to Netflix. A new Predator movie is going straight to Hulu. Peter Pan is going straight to Disney+ and so on.

Thanks for the write up. I would like to see a reaction from someone who actually played the games. When watching the trailer all I could think of was "Not my Drake and Sully" and "I already played this movie". Not to derail too much but that's one of the problem I have with movie adaptation of video games, which is similar to those old movies -> videogame adaptations that they pulled away from in the more recent years.

Not impossible, but not guaranteed either.

I may be the exception here, but I saw a lot of trailers for this movie to the point I was saying, "this same trailer again". I don't think the problem is the lack of marketing, the problem is audience behavior has changed and I'm part of the problem. 10 years ago I would have gone to the theaters to watch this movie. Nowadays I will wait for it to hit streaming. It's part of the reason I cancelled my AMC movie pass. I don't go enough to even take advantage of that and I consider myself a more hardcore moviegoer than the average Joe.

I think that's DOM only I'd be VERY surprised to see some of those numbers. Morbius almost at 200MM would be....interesting. Highly unlikely that Spiderverse outsgrosses Strange 2 also, but I mean we are all predicting. There's no right or wrong answer.

I'm likely part of the problem because the only movie on that list I want to watch in theaters is Batman.

Disney collaborates with Samba TV, so from that alone I have to believe their numbers are legit, especially when coming from Disney+, Hulu, or ESPN+. https://dmedmedia.disney.com/news/disney-ad-sales-tech-showcase

Not sure about the name, but has Disney ever done a Superbowl teaser for a big movie? Did TFA or TLJ get a Superbowl teaser? They've done montages for Disney+ and maybe movies before, but not sure for a single movie. I expect the full trailer to be out by the time Dr. Strange 2 hits, but I don't know if Disney has done some 30 second teaser for movies the Superbowl, especially considering NBC is charging some 6.5MM for 30 seconds this year.

One dude predicted 11B which is borderline crazy IMO. 4B is highly unlikely IMO but I can see it happening if the stars align.

I know this was google translated but I'm still having a hard time understanding this comment....

Cameron said he'd like to have a 6 hour cut of movies for streaming while having a 2 1/2 theatrical cut. I'm assuming the former would be released outside of the theatrical window, but I'd be so down for that for certain franchises and movies especially if they have a Chapter like structure like Zach Snyder's Justice League. Not sure how financially feasible it'd be for the studios though. I don't know how much an Extended/Director/Ultimate Edition cut would cost.

So what is it? Are you changing it or keeping it the same no matter when it releases?