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Everything posted by BadOlCatSylvester
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It could not make any money at all, since there are rumours going about regarding a potential Marvel purge. Wonder Man is apparently out, and Vision Quest was removed from its writers' WGA profiles a few weeks back. The likes of Blade and Thunderbolts could potentially get scrapped now. Crazy times we're living in.
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It’s Me. Hi. I’m The Eras Tour Weekend Thread | 39M Friday
BadOlCatSylvester replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
As expected, it's shaping up to be very frontloaded with little to no walkups after the huge early sales. And yet, it'll likely still be the biggest opening of this quarter, which goes to show just how unappealing the fall slate is. And who's to say it doesn't get even drier now that Hollywood's last ray of hope got promptly snuffed out yesterday? Is an opening of around $90M to $95M attainable for this? That's where I see it. Maybe Freddy will outperform this, but all signs point to it being just as, if not more frontloaded than this, so I don't think its internal multiplier will be enough to surpass Eras. -
I'm guessing the recent SAG negotiations failing and exhibitors needing more content for the quarter are the reasons why this limited release is happening, because otherwise putting this out in theaters is a waste of time and money. It has no hook whatsoever, and that's not getting into the major skeleton in the closet. That they don't have the patience to wait out the strikes and eventually redub said skeleton's role is pretty telling.
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I don't think they'll go that far. If anything, I feel like Secret Wars will be the one that bites it if/when shit hits the fan. They'll likely radically rework Kang Dynasty to scale it down to the level of Civil War, and use it to end the Kang storyline for good and clear the stage for the X-Men and Fantastic Four.
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I have to agree. I can't help but think that the likes of Marvels, Echo, Agatha and Ironheart are probably going to suffer a slight DCEU effect, since they now represent a vision that Marvel is no longer pursuing if the recent Daredevil article is to be believed. Echo being dumped all at once is telling. I'm somewhat expecting Agatha and Ironheart to get similar treatments. I'm also wondering if any movies that didn't begin filming prior to May are going to get any major reworks. Daredevil is getting rebooted despite filming a decent amount, so anything is possible now I suppose.
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The SAG negotiations falling apart should put a swift end to any hopes Disney had of this movie making it to May, let alone next year. I don't expect it any earlier than February of 2025 and will be pleasantly surprised if it does. Maybe they can make it to Thunderbolts's current December 2024 slot, but I doubt it.
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I can see them pushing it to June after how well Elemental performed there. Because let's face it, most of their summer slate will have to relocate to the fall and winter now that these negotiations failed. They're gonna need something new for the summer, and among others like Snow White, Elio is a decent candidate for a potential new summer tentpole, especially if it's a crowdpleaser like Elemental was. The big question is the voice acting, and if it was recorded ahead of time or not. Unless this is somehow done by the Thanksgiving holidays, then it's highly unlikely to be done this year. It's pretty clear that the actors want far more than the writers, and I don't know if 2-3 weeks will be enough for them. Unless someone like Drew Barrymore wants to be a sacrificial lamb of course. Anyway, I morbidly wonder if we're going to see some movies get outright scrapped during this period. We already saw a TV casualty with Apple canning Sam Esmail's Metropolis series. I really need to look and up and see if such incidents happened during the last big strike.
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Strange 3, if it gets made, is going to drop like a rock after how polarizing his last movie was. If that opens any higher than, say, Eternals I'll be very surprised. That right there is why I proposed a delay to February earlier in this thread. It's Black History Month, and Black Panther made history there, so why not try again with the closest thing to a black leader we have in this franchise now that the obvious candidate is no longer with us.
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I think pushing this one to Christmas and Brave New World to either February or May is a decent option, especially in case the dismal presales so far for The Marvels do end up being indicative of its final opening. Aquaman was likely helped by keeping a healthy distance from Josstice League, so maybe the potential stench of The Marvels will have cooled off by Christmas 2024.
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This goes to show that for a prequel to work, the original work has to have been fondly remembered. The Star Wars prequels and the Hobbit trilogy were big because their original franchises were pop culture touchstones which ended on high notes. This prequel on the other hand will suffer pretty badly for the sins of Mockingjay and how sour of a taste that left on the fans. I'm honestly surprised both the book and the movie were even made at all.
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Honestly? @TheFlatLannister's armchair $40M projection doesn't sound all that crazy to me. Granted, the final number will most likely be around Eternals's opening unless reviews are Dark Knight-level, but with the beating the Marvel brand has received these past couple of years as well as the general disinterest for this one I'm seeing so far... nothing's off the table anymore. This year especially has been brutal for long-in-the-tooth franchises, and I'd argue Marvel is slowly getting there as well. Again, it's still highly unlikely to open that low. But it's not completely impossible, I guess.
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This entered development in late 2020 and was properly greenlit the following year. All of this happened not only during the streaming gold rush era where everything, regardless of actual demand, got an easy greenlight, but also before Halloween Kills was released, back when Green was still seen as the bold filmmaker who brought new life into Halloween. $400M for a tired brand like Exorcist is utterly insane, but considering that this wasn't too long after Halloween was such a big hit I can see where the studios were coming from.
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That's ironically the same day it hits theaters where I live.