MightyDargon

We're looking at this wrong. How does Fall Guy's hold compare to Civil War's first week hold? Because its actual launch weekend was closer to Civil War than a "blockbuster".

Still can't get over the "greatest superhero film since the Dark Knight" BS line these chuds came out with.

Willing to bet Sneider is a hired gun for some other studio on this. Wasn't he the one who said Dune Part 2 lost money?

Nah. Swap would've put it closer to Bad Boys 4. The actual optimal play would probably have been Feb. with a MUCH smaller marketing budget. Or possibly Sept.

If Universal was willing to dump Super Bowl money on it they must have somehow thought this movie was an "event". Would've gotten killed by Dune had it stayed in March anyway.

I mean, people here just overestimated Ryan Gosling as a draw and he's done dozens of movies. You're about to replay the same move with Glen Whatshisname from Top Gun 2?!

Darth Maul actually is a cool character. Problem is he dies before getting any real development and the animated series literally had to retcon his death.

Oh, and cinemascore isn't "real" either. Joker infamously had a B+ despite having a blockbuster run, Civil War had a B- despite the fact that it's had solid audience scores on Letterboxd and elsewhere, and Uncut Gems famously got trashed despite being a great suspense/drama film. All Cinemascore "measures" is how happy an OW audience is with what they get--getting a "crowd pleasing response" means giving the audience what it wants exactly with no surprises, regardless of the actual film's quality.

...this feels like a very hollow victory for me compared to the colossal success if "Hedgehog whup up on a Lion" actually works. Fall Guy's "buzz" felt very manufactured and based on the supposed "raves" from SXSW rather than any actual hype among paying audiences. Gonna have to completely ignore any buzz from THAT particular festival in the future since it's clearly there only for "greatest superhero movie since the Dark Knight" purposes. Clearly it's not a real film festival and only there for people whose brains have been fried from smelling Saint Elon's farts.

Say it gets 29 mil OW. x3 from that would put it a little under 90 mil. This thing would basically need a Dune 2 modifier for a decent US gross.

They didn't really have a good int distribution set up at the point they were launching Civil War. Oh well, there's always Garland's next movie. Any chance A24 gets Megalopolis US release?

Presold internationally.

Garfield IS a nostalgia play. Also Chimpire's "this movie is gonna succeed in the long run!" bit for Fall Guy is funnier than anything actually in Fall Guy.

I still think Civil War can hit 70 mil. More than that will be difficult.

Hollywood should just give up on comedy writing if this is the best they've got now.

At some point prior to 2010 maybe. But it's been long enough that the tactic has failed that it should be abandoned.

Dear Hollywood, STOP BUYING SUPER BOWL TRAILERS

I hope this doesn't sound trollish. But I don't get this. Is this saying the movie will somehow get better scores if it's shown at a festival? Or that reviews at a festival are more "valid" than others? I'm really confused.

....so, does it look like Civil War can still hit 70 mil?

...That actually sounds like a realistic assessment of the film if we're going by its IMDB or Metacritic scores. But people really should have described it as something other than "SXSW raves" if it wasn't actually raves.

Oh, so the joke just requires me to be an oblivious moron and ignore the fact that Rowling and Radcliffe/Watson have diametrically opposed views on a social issue that's literally gotten people killed. Got it.

Super Bowl ads don't really make sense for ANY movie though. Flash super bombed and lost more money than Fall Guy ever will with a much buzzier Super Bowl trailer.

...forgive me for not having much of a sense of humor about anything as loathsome as forcing Radcliffe/Watson to work on Rowling related stuff again.

Its Metacritic is 73. Lots of movies have a "good not great" score on Metacritic like that. People on here talked it up like it had Fury Road level raves, so SXSW must have had a very different reaction that the critics who watched it elsewhere. https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-fall-guy/ Note that its audience score is 75. This is also "good not great" range generally (especially since this movie most likely isn't getting review bombed. Compare this to the audience score for the Mario movie: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-super-mario-bros-movie/ Maybe I miscalculated what the "raves" were but I don't get the sense paying audiences treated this film as some kind of Barbenheimer level thingy.

Jonathon is not Christopher.