Bob Train

OS will have better legs than Domestic like Oppenheimer

Imaginary should be good for 10x IM because previews are starting at 6PM like Thanksgiving.

Wonder if second OS weekend can be bigger than first due to China.

floppenheimer

I was referring to The Martian I just forgot how many years ago it was Point is, even after all his historical epics have not exactly been hits like Exodus, Last Duel, Napoleon, etc. He still gets massive budgets solely based off his name. I’m sure after all those movies flopped people said he would surely never get that kind of budget again, but he does. When KOTFM and Napoleon released, a lot of people were saying Apple would never put out these kinds of huge budgeted flicks again, but they still have Project Artemis and Wolfs scheduled for this year. Point is, there are other factors that go into how these decisions are made than just our limited understanding of the box office.

Ridley Scott still gets $200m blank checks despite not having made a hit in 11 years. He has even more projects lined up like the Bee Gees Biopic and another action movie. Name recognition goes a long way in Hollywood.

Not to mention PTA

Is the top 15 gonna be all Disney/Pixar animations or am I forgetting something.

Yeah Oscar movies have done way better this year. Holdovers, American Fiction, Poor Things (especially impressive considering borderline NC-17 subject matter) are grossing more domestically than Fabelmans directed by Steven Spielberg. And that is despite none of these movies really being thought of as the frontrunner, whereas Fablemans was thought by some as the frontrunner in the Fall.

…And that was one of the best ever drops for a day and date movie, those usually drop 70-80%

For comp

Is it? There are many anime movies with worse drops.

Dune will be the first film since Barbie to make $100m in a single week. Both Eras and FNAF missed out barely on that mark.

The Batman legs (adjusting for early streaming release) and assuming $83m OW would put Dune 2 in the "forbidden" $225m-$295m range...

KFP4 walk ups on THU may be worse than summer movies or Migration (THU was essentially a summer weekday). There is Spring Break, but that is more dependent on region, not nationwide.

So Dune had a lower Thursday than expected, but IM'd better than expected, ending in the expected mid-80s range...

IMO they'll estimate at $83m so that they get the "bigger than Oppenheimer" headline, definitely over $80m so that they get the "biggest opener since Barbenheimer" headline.

I agree. John Wick 4 was longer than Dune but only had a +25% jump, so IMO older demo skew, WOM, and PLF lure contribute to great bump. I think it is the most impressive Sat bump for any movie since Mario, since Saturdays have been weaker post-COVID.

The same drop as Batman would put it at... $83.9m

Cinema is back

How is Dune 2 gonna lose money, it is on track to make $600m-$700m on a $190m budget.

I'm referring to the original trilogy.

Dune is more thoughtful, introspective than Star Wars/LOTR which were catnip for casual audiences on top of being stellar films. Many people doubted Dune could even be properly adapted, much less become a profitable, solid hit franchise like it has done.