Transformers used to have a fanbase, it just fell apart after they got rid of Shia, Megan, and Bay. It would be massive if they brought Bay back with the OG cast.
Jumanji dropped only 55% against TROS. Kong Skull Island dropped 54% against BATB. Both of those were $170m openers. If WOM is good I don't see it dropping 70% at all, the path to a better hold is there, although I agree they should find a better date, Summer isn't particularly packed so shouldn't be too hard.
Still don’t see how a movie with one of the most famous fictional characters of all time and sequel to a $1b grossing movie is a harder sell than an introspective 3-hour long hard sci-fi like Dune…