This movie would do well in Asia. China's take can hit $50M (remember GIJOE 2?). South Korea is a toss-up but this looks very good on paper. At least a strong opening there. Another huge potential is the Russian, Mexican & Brazilian market. Sony should make some nice margin on this one. Domestic may only do $60M or so but it will be excellent on home video I bet.
Only $130M more..? Japan will do close to $100M. Look at that amazing Korean number. US will do $20M more (and take the Animation 2013 crown from DM2) and the rest will push it forward. This baby is doing more than a billion WW.
RE: the likelihood of FZ tanking at China B.O.
FZ is steeped in European/Germanic mythology which may go over Chinese audience's heads. MU is populated with stuffed animals & Chinese folks were not amused by that. DM2 & CROODS may be animated but they feature human characters (the Minions are exaggerated caricatures).
JACK RYAN franchise at less than $30M? I think it is weak and Paramount seems not very interested in pushing it. With all the spying allegations worldwide, the studio wants to downplay its big tent-pole spy franchise. And audience doesn't seem to like it.
Unless Japan likes DoS better than AUJ.
Or it breaks out in a big way in China, ie.
$60-$70M (!)
Looking at your figures up there, all DoS
needs is another $10M to beat DM2.
It is still doing $9M in the weekend and it is about $18M from a $100M milestone.
Either way, HOBBIT 2 is another great success for Warner/LotR/Jackson
LONE has a more positive portrayal of the War than ZERO. Like its title, ZDT is pretty dark & depressing. The torture scenes are hard to watch, and it is the first few minutes !