MovieMan89
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Everything posted by MovieMan89
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The good news is that the handful of sub 2.5x MCU films have all dropped 59-60% in weekend 2, so IW should be avoiding that fate.
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The hold really isn't bad, just disappointing after the weekdays. TDKR dropped 60%+ in its second weekend and still hit 2.8x. Ant-Man had the same second weekend drop as IW and cleared 3.1x. Obviously I know this isn't getting AM's multi, but there may still be a very slight chance left to hit Avatar (2.95x). Will need an amazing hold next weekend though before DP hits.
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I won't say no way for 400 for Solo, but it will however need fantastic WOM to get there. This one's not coasting there off of the SW name alone.
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Would be cool to see IW, TA, and BP be #28, 29, & 30 on the all time adjusted chart.
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Titanic WW is still in play depending on how high China goes.
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2.7x puts the king in serious danger.
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Yeah but at least DL is just throwing darts at numbers half the time so there's always hope. Unlike with rth, where hope live or dies with one fell post.
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Only one of those three things is probably not happening, but sweet dreams!
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After like 6 months of countless arguments, I'm not sure you understand the gravity of my situation if IW fails to hit at least 2.5x.
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Y'all mods should have kept me banned, it was working out better for IW's #'s.
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RPO's legs have been good considering the type of movie it is. If it hadn't had good WOM it probably would have collapsed hard. Still waiting on the budget confirmation though. If it veered close to 200, it's doubtful it was very profitable.
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Even you know it's a stretch to say the Avatar sequels will go 700+ DOM each. A whole lot has to go right for that.
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No way it's going to have a 60m Sat, but 55 wouldn't totally shock me. Should be 50+ or I'd be disappointed after the low Friday bump.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
MovieMan89 replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
I expect a 50% preview share of OD for Solo. Summer+SW is a brutal combination for preview frontloading. -
If IW hits 700 DOM, I wonder when a pair of consecutive 700+ gorssers from the same franchise will be replicated? That feat could stand for awhile.
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Ikr, that 2.8x multi in December will be hard to top. I wonder how they could ever hope to recapture that level of WOM? Poor Abrams.
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Aladdin being early May would actually be fantastic for the ridiculously overstuffed family fare of summer 2019. The more room Aladdin, SLOP2, TS4, and TLK all have to breathe from each other, the better. Throw Shazam in the Memorial Day spot instead. Then it and Captain Marvel avoid competition with each other. Homecoming 2 moves to first week of May 2020, IX is MD, GotG3 goes to July. Voila.
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900m ww OW might happen in that case.
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@MCKillswitch123 The only way your idea would be possible is for IX to get pushed back to May 2020 not up. Which honestly might be a really good idea to give them as much time to figure out exactly what they wanna do with it and give the franchise some room to breathe and let some hype build again.
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And something tells me Disney might want to not rush this one. Just a hunch.
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Love the idea personally, but it won’t happen. Might not even be possible to happen in the first place since I’m not sure IX could be ready to go in a year. Opposed to TA4 which is all in post already.
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Friday is kinda meh, but I’ll wait to see what happens today before throwing in the towel on TA type of legs.
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However, if you glance over the IMDB top 250, most movies that have been widely regarded by film critics and audiences for decades as some of the all time greats are in there somewhere. It’s not like it’s made up of a bunch of random stuff that you’d only find there in a best films discussion. Yeah, there’s some of that, but it’s not the majority. That tells me the scores probably aren’t as warped from the reality of public opinion as some might think. I personally haven’t voted on IMDB in years and years myself.
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Oh I never meant that it was super useful for legs. Too many other factors as you mentioned. I think where IMDB mainly falters in credibility of score is the lack of female presence in the voting vs male. Whereas in reality the female audience tends to be more important to if a blockbuster lives or dies than the male one.
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IMDB is still the largest sample size metric we have for audience film scores. Millions on the big films. That's why I'm not as quick to dismiss it as being completely inaccurate as many around here are. Maybe they're all irrelevant, maybe they aren't. IMDB however is too big of a sample size to dismiss unless you're going to dismiss them all.
