MovieMan89

Does that apply to all audience score guages then? All I'm saying is audience scores across the board like this for a blockbuater haven't been seen sincee TDK.

Btw, the IMDB and RT audience score of IW so far is pretty much the best seen for any blockbuster since TDK 10 years ago.

Would be very happy with 125. Will show that it's playing like TA. Anything more was always just icing.

Premature don’t ya think? You realize if it hits the high end of rths range today that it could end up with as light as a 48-49% drop right? Sat will be huge just like last week.

Was expecting 35ish today, so hopefully it’s the high end of rths range.

Lol, Deadline. Always appreciate the comedy.

What a colossal failure in terms of appealing to anyone. This might make King Arthur look like Infinity War at the box office.

The idea of this: brings to mind something that would have been done for a dreaded mid 00's Catwoman sequel. Glad Jenkins is still at the helm or I'd be worried. Will be interesting how they pull this off though.

I would kill to see a massive 300m+ breakout for this. Assuming it lives up to the quality of the trailer of course.

@Porthos What you're failing to take into account is just how much the sizable faction that hates TLJ hates it. I dare you to find a movie from this decade with more passionate disdain. That's why there's people saying TLJ could have a big effect on how this opens at least. Not because they've churned out one misfire after the other with audiences ala DCEU. It's more of a Spider-Man 3 situation, where one movie is enough to have a huge effect.

I just hope you keep this argument in mind and don't try to pull out adjusted numbers when something not made by Cameron inevitably does beat Avatar WW.

PART A: Below are 10 films due for release between now and June 15th, along with their predicted total grosses according to https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom/ 1. Overboard - $39M LOWER 2. Life of the Party - $54M HIGHER 3. Book Club - $25M HIGHER 4. Action Point - $42.5M LOWER 5. Adrift - $34M LOWER 6. Tag - $43M HIGHER 7. Show Dogs - $25M LOWER 8. Breaking In - $34.8M HIGHER PART B: Here are 10 questions: 1. Which film will be the lowest grossing? Adrift 2. Which film will be the highest grossing? Tag 3. Will any of the films listed make the top 20 domestic? No 4. Will at least one film double its predicted gross? No 5. Will at least one film fail to reach half of its predicted gross? Yes 6. Will the actual combined total gross for the 8 films be higher or lower than the predicted total gross? Lower 7. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's best prediction? Life of the Party 8. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's worst prediction? Adrift 9. Will at least 3 of these films make $50M? No 10. Will any of these films have an OW below $5M? Yes

Week 2 -YES

Part A: 1. Will Overboard Open to more than $15M? 1000 NO 2. Will Overboard Open to more than $18M? 2000 NO 3. Will Bad Samaritan open to more than $10M? 3000 NO 4. Will Bad Samaritan open to more than $12.5M? 4000 NO 5. Which of the three new entries will have the highest PTA? 5000 TULLY 6. Will Infinity War Make more than $100? 1000 YES 7. Will Infinity War Make more than $120? 2000 YES 8. Will A quiet place drop more than 44%? 3000 NO 9. Will Super Troopers stay above Ready Player One? 4000 YES 10. Will I feel pretty stay in the top 5? 5000 YES 11. Will traffik stay above Isle of Dogs? 1000 NO 12. Will Rampage have a PTA above $1,500? 2000 YES 13. Will Black Panther increase more than 160% on Friday? 3000 YES 14. Will Avengers increase more than 68.5% on Saturday? 4000 NO 15. Will Baymax be in Infinity War 2? 5000 ONLY IF IT'S SHOT WITH BAYMAX CAMERAS Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Overboard make for its 3 day? 9.550M 2. What will Truth or Dare's percentage change be? -54.725 3. What will Blockers' PTA be for the Weekend? Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Overboard 4. I Feel Pretty 5. Black Panther 7. Rampage 10. Super Troopers 12. Truth or Dare Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000

Over Suicide Squad's OW (133M) is the target.

Hopefully BP gets it. Would give it second most weekends in the top 5 of any 21st century film.

Dat BP hold. TFA was down to 1k by this point.

Haha, was I really on board with a 200m second weekend? Wow, I must have been drunk on all kinds of TFA hype.

Tbh, the trailer they have is so perfect and effective they really wouldn't need to put out another one. I can't imagine them topping it, and it would be a shame if it makes it look a bit underwhelming compared to the previous one.

150m behind by weekend 3 would probably be a bit too much to hit 800. Probably needs to be no more than 140m behind to have a shot. 4th and 5th holds will likely be very similar to TFA's. TFA had the holiday honeymoon is over effect in its 4th and dropped big like IW likely will with DP2 and then dropped light in its 5th bc of a holiday weekend like IW likely will as well.

Btw, I'm gone for a week and we have this baby Context of proper usage anyone? Much obliged.

Hey, if IW usurps Avatar DOM, the top 2 grossers of all time DOM will be 'War' films. Americans are warmongers confirmed.

I still remember being so disappointed by what happened once Jan hit for TFA. Granted I knew of course big drops were coming, but the holiday performance was so otherworldly I thought WOM was great enough to carry it to 1b for sure once we were at that 3rd weekend gross. And considering I was one of the only ones to predict 1b DOM for it weeks before release, that would have been pretty awesome bragging rights.

If IW can stay within 125-130m or so of TFA through weekend 3, 800 can happen. TFA's post weekend 3 holds weren't all that extraordinary. Hoping it's only around 70-75m behind after this weekend.

Wow, crazy that it's actually possible. At the moment I'd say: Thu: 15.8 Fri: 37.5 (+137%) Sat: 55 (+46%) Sun: 39 (-28%) 132 So I think 1-2m below AoU's opening Sat (56.5m), but who knows.