MovieMan89

C'mon, 65m would be outright bad. 75m would be OK, but still wouldn't make 700 a lock.

That's some of it yes, but not enough to justify that kind of OW to total retention difference. Movies like DH2 and Bad Moms Christmas struggled to 70% retention because their OWs were around that range. In the case of both their OW retention and total retention will end up very similar. If TLJ drops nearly 20% retention from OW to total, then yes it is WOM too.

It's down now to 7.8 on IMDB with only 130k votes. TPM is 6.5, ROTS is 7.6. Probably ends up right in the middle of them given it still has 5-6x more votes to get. All the other non-prequels are comfortably above 8.0.

Logic? Going from 88% of its predecessor OW to 70-75% of its total clearly implicates worse WOM.

I'm not expecting same legs as TFA, that would be 88% of TFA's gross. If it came in more around that 80% mark, then I might agree not necessarily WOM. But it's more likely to be in the 70-75% range with how things look so far. WOM is a factor in that case.

Avatar is roughly 80% of TFA's gross. The way I see it, there is no excuse for it to open to 88% of TFA's OW and yet come in less than 80% of its total if not reflective of WOM.

Ok, so saw this a second time and I'm officially ready to call it an animated masterpiece. Went from loving it the first time but having some quibbles, to now pondering if it might just be my new #1 from Pixar, and believe me that is quite the title in my book.

I think this will get massacred by the competition. Especially since I doubt it has any kind of big OW, so getting the early jump isn't much of an advantage for it.

How is it so stunning? Did I watch the same trailer? Parts of it looked borderline cheap to me.

Geez, I thought I was going to see the next Life of Pi when I watched the trailer the way some of you were gushing about the visuals. Meh. Really does look like Alice in Wonderland 3: Cheshire Christmas Ca$h Grab.

Considering TLJ's pacing is glacial compared to TFA, I make of that that you were extremely sleep deprived that day.

Shouldn't that work in favor of the argument of WOM not being great then, since those other two did have good WOM with the GA but not your parents. Lol.

3rd weekend being similar or even bigger to 2nd will be a necessity if this is getting near 700. RO and TFA were both at 80% of their final gross after New Years weekend.

Eh, I was fully expecting Nine levels of bombage, so this seems good by comparison to me

Anecdotal obviously, but I’m starting to hear from a lot of friends/family who just didn’t care much for it. And I’m talking about from some of the type that are very easily pleased when it comes to these kinds of movies.

With the story/character choices they made in TLJ, I would have to agree. Not exactly sure what’s going to be the big hook now for the finale.

I don’t think it’s just some random pattern that the second eps in each trilogy have dropped off so much. Sure part of it is because the first have always been phenomenons, but in the case of AotC, by that point there was a significnat backlash in the fanbase against TPM that surely affected Clones. And in ESBs case, the movie was not met with universal praise among the ga at the time of release (or at least according to those who were around to remember it). So now we have TLJ, which also has seemed to split the fanbase, and hence is looking likely for another huge second installment drop off.

If that were the case I’d have to think TLJ would have come closer to rivaling TFAs ow. Especially since adjusted that’s like 260+

We know it will drop around 50% on Sunday. Saturday bumps were extremely small for everything in 2006 as well. So it’s going to need to really have an impressive Friday jump if it’s going above 80m this weekend

If it’s at 16-17m on Thursday, Pursuit of Happyness weekend holds put it at 75m. Really nothing else to compare it to given the calendar this year.

Looks likely to only do around 75m this weekend with Sunday being Xmas eve. That’s half of TFAs second weekend. Next week is going to really have to pull some massive numbers for it if it’s getting to 700+ imo.

Telling you guys, WOM on this thing is far from universal praise among the ga like with TFA. Sticking with my 3.1-3.15x.

Yeah, that’s not a good trailer. I could see this doing really bad, even by stop motion standards

I think so, hence why I’m predicting 3.1-3.15.

Only big sequels that had mixed reception compared to their predecessor though. That’s the only way TLJ will have that multi.